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On-Road Motor Vehicles. EMFAC2007 - Statewide Dilip Patel December 15, 2006. EMFAC2007 - Summary of Changes. Contributions on Percentage Basis to Total Changes in Tons Per Day . Trends – All Vehicles. Statewide. Statewide – Vehicle Populations. Statewide – Vehicle Miles Traveled.

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On road motor vehicles l.jpg

On-Road Motor Vehicles

EMFAC2007 - Statewide

Dilip Patel

December 15, 2006

12/15/2006


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EMFAC2007 - Summary of Changes

12/15/2006



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Trends – All Vehicles Per Day

Statewide

12/15/2006




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Statewide – ROG (Tailpipe) Per Day

12/15/2006



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Statewide – ROG (Total) Per Day

12/15/2006


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Statewide – Total NOx Per Day

12/15/2006


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Statewide – Total PM10 Per Day

12/15/2006


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Trends – Heavy-Heavy Duty Vehicles Per Day

Statewide

12/15/2006


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Statewide – HHDV Populations Per Day

12/15/2006









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Vehicle Class Definitions Per Day

  • For this presentation only

    • LDV – passenger cars, light- & medium-duty trucks ( < 8,500 lbs)

    • L-MHDV – Light and Medium Heavy- Duty Trucks ( 8,501 – 33,000 lbs)

    • HHDV – Heavy-Heavy Duty Trucks (> 33,001 lbs)

    • Buses – School, Urban and Other Buses

    • MCY – Motorcycles

    • MH - Motorhomes

12/15/2006













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Statewide – Observations (by 2015) Per Day

  • Change in Contribution of Emissions by Vehicle Class

  • ROG

    • Increase contribution from Motorcycles and HHDVs

  • PM10

    • Mainly from HHDVs and LDVs

  • NOx

    • Increase contribution from HHDVs

12/15/2006


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Fuel Correction Factors Per Day

I/M Updates

Brake Wear

Accrual Rates

COG Activity Updates

Ethanol Permeation

Temperature Profiles

Relative Humidity Profiles

HD Gas Cap Algorithms

“Bug” Fixes

Previous Presentations and Documentation available at:

http://www.arb.ca.gov/msei/msei.htm

Items Previously Presented

12/15/2006


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On-Road Motor Vehicles Per Day

EMFAC2007 –San Joaquin Valley Air Basin

Dilip Patel

November 16, 2006

12/15/2006


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EMFAC2007 - Per Day Summary of Changes

12/15/2006



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Trends – All Vehicles Per Day

San Joaquin Valley Air Basin

12/15/2006









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Trends – Heavy-Heavy Duty Vehicles Per Day

San Joaquin Valley Air Basin

12/15/2006









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Contributions by Vehicle Class – 2002 Year Per Day

San Joaquin Valley Air Basin

12/15/2006


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Vehicle Class Definitions Per Day

  • For this presentation only

    • LDV – passenger cars, light- & medium-duty trucks ( < 8,500 lbs)

    • L-MHDV – Light and Medium Heavy- Duty Trucks ( 8,501 – 33,000 lbs)

    • HHDV – Heavy-Heavy Duty Trucks (> 33,001 lbs)

    • Buses – School, Urban and Other Buses

    • MCY – Motorcycles

    • MH - Motorhomes

12/15/2006







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Contributions by Vehicle Class – 2015 Calendar Year Class (

San Joaquin Valley Air Basin

12/15/2006







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San Joaquin Valley AB – Observations (by 2015) Class (

  • Change in Contribution of Emissions by Vehicle Class

  • ROG

    • Increase contribution from Motorcycles and HHDVs

  • PM10

    • Mainly from HHDVs and LDVs

  • NOx

    • Increase contribution from L_MHDVs

12/15/2006


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Significant Updates to be Discussed Today Class (

  • Population Updates

  • HHDDT VMT Redistribution

  • HHDDT BERs and SCFs

12/15/2006


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Population Updates Class (

Lead Staff: Alice Tong

12/15/2006


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Vehicle Population Estimates Class (

  • Population data -California Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) calendar years 2000-2005

  • Vehicle Classifications -Weight data from Bureau of Automotive Repair (BAR). Also used weight data from DMV (trucks only)

  • Addition of “Other Bus” Category –buses other than School or Urban transit (i.e. charter)

  • Redistribution of HHDDT Population –statewide populations redistributed in proportion to HHDDT VMT

12/15/2006


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Steps to Estimate Population Class (

Using DMV’s Vehicle Registration Database

  • Initial DMV QA Process

    • Exclude Duplicates & Unqualified Records (Age, Fuel, Registration Status, Etc.)

    • Assign by Geographic Area

  • Evaluate Registration Status of Candidate Vehicles

    • Pending

12/15/2006


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EMFAC2002 - Class (populations

  • Base population – 1999 calendar year

  • Backcasts / Forecasts – 1999

  • Excluded all “Pending” Vehicles –vehicles with undetermined registration status

  • Excludes all Alternatively Fueled Vehicles–Alternative Fuel = none Gas, Electric, or Diesel

  • Excludes Vehicles Older than 45 Years

  • Excludes all Out-of-State Vehicles –registered in CA but have mailing addresses outside

12/15/2006


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EMFAC2007 Class (

  • Base population – 2000-2005 calendar years

  • Backcasts from 2000 & Forecasts from 2005

  • Includes all “Instantaneous Pending” Vehicles

  • Excludes all Alternatively Fueled Vehicles –includes Hybrids

  • Excludes Vehicles Older than 45 Years

  • Excludes all Out-of-State Vehicles

12/15/2006


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Pending Vehicles Class (

  • Pending Vehicles are vehicles which have begun the registration process but, for various reasons, have not completed the process

  • There are many reasons why a vehicle is in Pending. Including:

    • Vehicle no longer in use but DMV has not yet purged the record from their database

    • Smog-Check, Proof of Insurance, Parking Ticket, etc.

12/15/2006


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Instantaneous and Chronic Pending Vehicles Class (

  • Pending vehicles–candidate vehicles for inclusion into the population estimate.

  • Chronic Pending – vehicles which remain in the Pending status in the following year

  • Instantaneous Pending – vehicles which come off the Pending status and become fully registered one year later

  • Total Population = Registered + Instantaneous Pending

12/15/2006


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DMV Registration Status Summary - CY2000-CY2005 Class (

Total On Road Population = Current + Instantaneous Pending

* Note: It is important to note that Chronic Unregistered vehicles are a subset of Chronic Pending vehicles. Therefore, the percentage of Chronic Pending can not be taken to represent the percentage of Chronic Unregistered vehicles.

12/15/2006


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EMFAC2007 – Class (final estimates

  • Includes – Instantaneous Pending

  • Excludes – Chronic Pending

  • Includes - Hybrids

  • Excludes – CNG, LPG fueled vehicles.

    Most appear to have non-road applications

  • Excludes – all out-of-state vehicles.

    Primarily students and military and hence not operating in CA.

12/15/2006



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Population Summary (CY2003)

  • Compared to EMFAC2002, net population will increase by 0-4% over six years (2000-2005).

  • This results in an increase in Evaporative and Starting emissions, but little exhaust effect (tied to VMT, not population).

  • Staff continues working with DMV to “clean” the data set.

12/15/2006


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Heavy-Heavy Duty Diesel Truck Travel Redistribution (CY2003)

Lead Staff: Augustus Pela, Pranay Avlani, & Seungju Yoon

12/15/2006


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HHDDT VMT Redistribution (CY2003)

  • Why Redistribute?

    • EMFAC 2002 allocated VMT by location of truck registration. (Popregistered_area * Accrual Rate = VMTarea)

    • But heavy-heavy duty diesel trucks travel far from their registered location

  • What was changed?

    • Revised EMFAC VMT allocation is by miles of travel

    • More accurately reflects driving patterns in California

  • VMT redistributed from urban areas to rural areas

    • Decreased VMT in South Coast and Bay Area

    • Increased VMT in SJV and Mojave Desert

12/15/2006


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HHDDT VMT Redistribution (CY2003)

  • How was real-world truck travel estimated?

    • Evaluated a major statewide survey of truck travel (8,000 trucks) conducted by Caltrans, 2001

    • Used GIS to estimate probable mileage based on origin/destination data

    • Summed estimated mileage and calculated percentage of survey travel by county

    • Compared results to MVSTAFF

12/15/2006


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HHDDT VMT Redistribution (CY2003)

  • How was the change made in EMFAC?

    • Redistributed HHDDT population in proportion to travel in each area

    • Assume statewide mileage accrual rates

    • Apply county-level growth estimates – based on MVSTAFF

  • For further details, please see memo titled: “Redistribution Of Heavy-Heavy Duty Diesel Truck Vehicle Miles Traveled In California ” on our website at http://www.arb.ca.gov/msei/supportdocs.htm#onroad

12/15/2006


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HHDDT Redistribution (CY2003) - Results

  • Year 2000 HHDDT VMT

12/15/2006


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HHDDT VMT Redistribution (CY2003)

12/15/2006


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Heavy Heavy-Duty Diesel Truck Emission Factors & Speed Correction Factors

Lead Staff: Lei Zhou

12/15/2006


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HHDDT Base Emission Rates Correction Factors

  • Improved Emission Rate Data

    • Updated using CRC E-55/59 test data

    • Larger sample size (70 vs 23 trucks)

    • Included testing of 1999-2003 MY trucks

    • Projection for 2007+ rates based on 2003 MY instead of 1997 MY data

12/15/2006


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Comparison of Zero-Mile Rates for Selected Model Year Groups Correction Factors

* Rates in red: projected using ratio of standards

12/15/2006


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Tampering & Malmaintenance Rates Correction Factors

  • EMFAC2002 did not account for a variety of emission control system malfunctions of future year trucks

  • HDV OBD is designed to reduce frequency of failures

  • EMFAC2007 reflects malfunctions and benefits of OBD requirements

12/15/2006


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TM&M Frequency for 2010+ MYs Correction Factors

12/15/2006




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Trend of NOx Emission Rates Groups

12/15/2006



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Trend of PM Emission Rates Groups

12/15/2006


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Idle Emission Rates Groups

  • EMFAC2002 NOx, HC, and CO idle emission rates for HHDD trucks were based on data of nine 1996-98 model year trucks

  • EMFAC2002 PM idle emission rates were from USEPA MOBILE model

  • Idle emission rates of all pollutants were revised in EMFAC2007 using CRC E-55/59 idle test data of 47 trucks

12/15/2006




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High Idle Emission Factors Groups

12/15/2006


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Speed Correction Factor Revision Groups

  • Revised HHDDT speed correction factors using CRC E-55/59 test data

    • Three sets of SCFs for Pre-1991 MY, 1991-2002 MY, and 2003+ MY groups

    • Reflect the effect of off-cycle NOx and future engine and control technologies

12/15/2006


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NOx Speed Correction Factors Groups

12/15/2006


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PM Speed Correction Factors Groups

12/15/2006



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Truck Idle Regulations Groups

  • ARB latest enforcement data indicate 2% noncompliance rate as of June 2006:

    32 citations/1,700 inspections

  • Assume 100% 2008+ MY sleepers having 5-min shut-off devices and 90% sleepers using an APU as a power supply

12/15/2006



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HD Truck Chip Reflash Groups

  • ARB data: 70% of 1993-98 MY Consent Decree trucks reflashed by Sep 2006

  • USEPA data: 2% annual rebuild rate for reflashable HD trucks

  • Emission Changes of chip reflash based on CRC E-55/59 test data of four chip reflashed trucks:

    -17% for NOx and +7% for PM

12/15/2006




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