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On-Road Motor Vehicles. EMFAC2007 - Statewide Dilip Patel December 15, 2006. EMFAC2007 - Summary of Changes. Contributions on Percentage Basis to Total Changes in Tons Per Day . Trends – All Vehicles. Statewide. Statewide – Vehicle Populations. Statewide – Vehicle Miles Traveled.

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on road motor vehicles

On-Road Motor Vehicles

EMFAC2007 - Statewide

Dilip Patel

December 15, 2006

12/15/2006

trends all vehicles

Trends – All Vehicles

Statewide

12/15/2006

vehicle class definitions
Vehicle Class Definitions
  • For this presentation only
    • LDV – passenger cars, light- & medium-duty trucks ( < 8,500 lbs)
    • L-MHDV – Light and Medium Heavy- Duty Trucks ( 8,501 – 33,000 lbs)
    • HHDV – Heavy-Heavy Duty Trucks (> 33,001 lbs)
    • Buses – School, Urban and Other Buses
    • MCY – Motorcycles
    • MH - Motorhomes

12/15/2006

statewide observations by 2015
Statewide – Observations (by 2015)
  • Change in Contribution of Emissions by Vehicle Class
  • ROG
    • Increase contribution from Motorcycles and HHDVs
  • PM10
    • Mainly from HHDVs and LDVs
  • NOx
    • Increase contribution from HHDVs

12/15/2006

items previously presented
Fuel Correction Factors

I/M Updates

Brake Wear

Accrual Rates

COG Activity Updates

Ethanol Permeation

Temperature Profiles

Relative Humidity Profiles

HD Gas Cap Algorithms

“Bug” Fixes

Previous Presentations and Documentation available at:

http://www.arb.ca.gov/msei/msei.htm

Items Previously Presented

12/15/2006

on road motor vehicles35

On-Road Motor Vehicles

EMFAC2007 –San Joaquin Valley Air Basin

Dilip Patel

November 16, 2006

12/15/2006

trends all vehicles38

Trends – All Vehicles

San Joaquin Valley Air Basin

12/15/2006

trends heavy heavy duty vehicles46

Trends – Heavy-Heavy Duty Vehicles

San Joaquin Valley Air Basin

12/15/2006

contributions by vehicle class 2002 year

Contributions by Vehicle Class – 2002 Year

San Joaquin Valley Air Basin

12/15/2006

vehicle class definitions55
Vehicle Class Definitions
  • For this presentation only
    • LDV – passenger cars, light- & medium-duty trucks ( < 8,500 lbs)
    • L-MHDV – Light and Medium Heavy- Duty Trucks ( 8,501 – 33,000 lbs)
    • HHDV – Heavy-Heavy Duty Trucks (> 33,001 lbs)
    • Buses – School, Urban and Other Buses
    • MCY – Motorcycles
    • MH - Motorhomes

12/15/2006

contributions by vehicle class 2015 calendar year61

Contributions by Vehicle Class – 2015 Calendar Year

San Joaquin Valley Air Basin

12/15/2006

san joaquin valley ab observations by 2015
San Joaquin Valley AB – Observations (by 2015)
  • Change in Contribution of Emissions by Vehicle Class
  • ROG
    • Increase contribution from Motorcycles and HHDVs
  • PM10
    • Mainly from HHDVs and LDVs
  • NOx
    • Increase contribution from L_MHDVs

12/15/2006

significant updates to be discussed today
Significant Updates to be Discussed Today
  • Population Updates
  • HHDDT VMT Redistribution
  • HHDDT BERs and SCFs

12/15/2006

population updates

Population Updates

Lead Staff: Alice Tong

12/15/2006

vehicle population estimates
Vehicle Population Estimates
  • Population data -California Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) calendar years 2000-2005
  • Vehicle Classifications -Weight data from Bureau of Automotive Repair (BAR). Also used weight data from DMV (trucks only)
  • Addition of “Other Bus” Category –buses other than School or Urban transit (i.e. charter)
  • Redistribution of HHDDT Population –statewide populations redistributed in proportion to HHDDT VMT

12/15/2006

steps to estimate population
Steps to Estimate Population

Using DMV’s Vehicle Registration Database

  • Initial DMV QA Process
    • Exclude Duplicates & Unqualified Records (Age, Fuel, Registration Status, Etc.)
    • Assign by Geographic Area
  • Evaluate Registration Status of Candidate Vehicles
    • Pending

12/15/2006

emfac2002 populations
EMFAC2002 - populations
  • Base population – 1999 calendar year
  • Backcasts / Forecasts – 1999
  • Excluded all “Pending” Vehicles –vehicles with undetermined registration status
  • Excludes all Alternatively Fueled Vehicles–Alternative Fuel = none Gas, Electric, or Diesel
  • Excludes Vehicles Older than 45 Years
  • Excludes all Out-of-State Vehicles –registered in CA but have mailing addresses outside

12/15/2006

emfac2007
EMFAC2007
  • Base population – 2000-2005 calendar years
  • Backcasts from 2000 & Forecasts from 2005
  • Includes all “Instantaneous Pending” Vehicles
  • Excludes all Alternatively Fueled Vehicles –includes Hybrids
  • Excludes Vehicles Older than 45 Years
  • Excludes all Out-of-State Vehicles

12/15/2006

pending vehicles
Pending Vehicles
  • Pending Vehicles are vehicles which have begun the registration process but, for various reasons, have not completed the process
  • There are many reasons why a vehicle is in Pending. Including:
    • Vehicle no longer in use but DMV has not yet purged the record from their database
    • Smog-Check, Proof of Insurance, Parking Ticket, etc.

12/15/2006

instantaneous and chronic pending vehicles
Instantaneous and Chronic Pending Vehicles
  • Pending vehicles–candidate vehicles for inclusion into the population estimate.
  • Chronic Pending – vehicles which remain in the Pending status in the following year
  • Instantaneous Pending – vehicles which come off the Pending status and become fully registered one year later
  • Total Population = Registered + Instantaneous Pending

12/15/2006

dmv registration status summary cy2000 cy2005
DMV Registration Status Summary - CY2000-CY2005

Total On Road Population = Current + Instantaneous Pending

* Note: It is important to note that Chronic Unregistered vehicles are a subset of Chronic Pending vehicles. Therefore, the percentage of Chronic Pending can not be taken to represent the percentage of Chronic Unregistered vehicles.

12/15/2006

emfac2007 final estimates
EMFAC2007 – final estimates
  • Includes – Instantaneous Pending
  • Excludes – Chronic Pending
  • Includes - Hybrids
  • Excludes – CNG, LPG fueled vehicles.

Most appear to have non-road applications

  • Excludes – all out-of-state vehicles.

Primarily students and military and hence not operating in CA.

12/15/2006

population summary
Population Summary
  • Compared to EMFAC2002, net population will increase by 0-4% over six years (2000-2005).
  • This results in an increase in Evaporative and Starting emissions, but little exhaust effect (tied to VMT, not population).
  • Staff continues working with DMV to “clean” the data set.

12/15/2006

heavy heavy duty diesel truck travel redistribution

Heavy-Heavy Duty Diesel Truck Travel Redistribution

Lead Staff: Augustus Pela, Pranay Avlani, & Seungju Yoon

12/15/2006

hhddt vmt redistribution
HHDDT VMT Redistribution
  • Why Redistribute?
    • EMFAC 2002 allocated VMT by location of truck registration. (Popregistered_area * Accrual Rate = VMTarea)
    • But heavy-heavy duty diesel trucks travel far from their registered location
  • What was changed?
    • Revised EMFAC VMT allocation is by miles of travel
    • More accurately reflects driving patterns in California
  • VMT redistributed from urban areas to rural areas
    • Decreased VMT in South Coast and Bay Area
    • Increased VMT in SJV and Mojave Desert

12/15/2006

hhddt vmt redistribution82
HHDDT VMT Redistribution
  • How was real-world truck travel estimated?
    • Evaluated a major statewide survey of truck travel (8,000 trucks) conducted by Caltrans, 2001
    • Used GIS to estimate probable mileage based on origin/destination data
    • Summed estimated mileage and calculated percentage of survey travel by county
    • Compared results to MVSTAFF

12/15/2006

hhddt vmt redistribution83
HHDDT VMT Redistribution
  • How was the change made in EMFAC?
    • Redistributed HHDDT population in proportion to travel in each area
    • Assume statewide mileage accrual rates
    • Apply county-level growth estimates – based on MVSTAFF
  • For further details, please see memo titled: “Redistribution Of Heavy-Heavy Duty Diesel Truck Vehicle Miles Traveled In California ” on our website at http://www.arb.ca.gov/msei/supportdocs.htm#onroad

12/15/2006

hhddt redistribution results
HHDDT Redistribution - Results
  • Year 2000 HHDDT VMT

12/15/2006

heavy heavy duty diesel truck emission factors speed correction factors

Heavy Heavy-Duty Diesel Truck Emission Factors & Speed Correction Factors

Lead Staff: Lei Zhou

12/15/2006

hhddt base emission rates
HHDDT Base Emission Rates
  • Improved Emission Rate Data
    • Updated using CRC E-55/59 test data
    • Larger sample size (70 vs 23 trucks)
    • Included testing of 1999-2003 MY trucks
    • Projection for 2007+ rates based on 2003 MY instead of 1997 MY data

12/15/2006

comparison of zero mile rates for selected model year groups
Comparison of Zero-Mile Rates for Selected Model Year Groups

* Rates in red: projected using ratio of standards

12/15/2006

tampering malmaintenance rates
Tampering & Malmaintenance Rates
  • EMFAC2002 did not account for a variety of emission control system malfunctions of future year trucks
  • HDV OBD is designed to reduce frequency of failures
  • EMFAC2007 reflects malfunctions and benefits of OBD requirements

12/15/2006

idle emission rates
Idle Emission Rates
  • EMFAC2002 NOx, HC, and CO idle emission rates for HHDD trucks were based on data of nine 1996-98 model year trucks
  • EMFAC2002 PM idle emission rates were from USEPA MOBILE model
  • Idle emission rates of all pollutants were revised in EMFAC2007 using CRC E-55/59 idle test data of 47 trucks

12/15/2006

speed correction factor revision
Speed Correction Factor Revision
  • Revised HHDDT speed correction factors using CRC E-55/59 test data
    • Three sets of SCFs for Pre-1991 MY, 1991-2002 MY, and 2003+ MY groups
    • Reflect the effect of off-cycle NOx and future engine and control technologies

12/15/2006

truck idle regulations
Truck Idle Regulations
  • ARB latest enforcement data indicate 2% noncompliance rate as of June 2006:

32 citations/1,700 inspections

  • Assume 100% 2008+ MY sleepers having 5-min shut-off devices and 90% sleepers using an APU as a power supply

12/15/2006

hd truck chip reflash
HD Truck Chip Reflash
  • ARB data: 70% of 1993-98 MY Consent Decree trucks reflashed by Sep 2006
  • USEPA data: 2% annual rebuild rate for reflashable HD trucks
  • Emission Changes of chip reflash based on CRC E-55/59 test data of four chip reflashed trucks:

-17% for NOx and +7% for PM

12/15/2006

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