introduction empirical evidence on politics and development
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Introduction: Empirical Evidence on Politics and Development . Paths of Political Development. Stable Democracy Western countries Unstable democracy Latin American Countries Non repressive Dictatorship Singapore, east Asian Countries Repressive dictatorship South Africa, before 1994 .

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paths of political development
Paths of Political Development
  • Stable Democracy
    • Western countries
  • Unstable democracy
    • Latin American Countries
  • Non repressive Dictatorship
    • Singapore, east Asian Countries
  • Repressive dictatorship
    • South Africa, before 1994
growth and democracy
Growth and Democracy
  • Pros: Provide constraints for Rulers
  • Cons: More distortionary redistribution.
  • Empirical evidence:
    • Barro (1997)
      • Non linear effect
      • Growth initially increasing with electoral rights, then decreasing
      • Growth is a good predictor for democracy (Barro 1999)
  • Przeworski, A. and Acemoglu, D., S. Johnson, J. Robinson and P. Yared
    • No clear causality from growth to democracy
institutions and development13
Institutions and Development
  • Are good institutions influencing the development or the contrary?
    • Problem or regressing growth respect an index of good institutions (enforcement property rights…)
    • We need a source of exogenous variations in the institutions
      • An element linked to the institutions but that is not directly linked to growth
the colonial origins of comparative development
The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development
  • Extractive Institutions
    • like Belgium in Congo
    • No protection of private property
  • Developmental Institutions
    • Like in New Zealand, US., Australia
    • High property rights protection
importance of mortality rates
Importance of Mortality rates

Settler Mortality

Settlements

Early institutions

Current institutions

Current Performances

is the theory right
Is the Theory Right?
  • Settler Mortality as an Instrumental Variable
    • M : settlers mortality
    • y: income growth
an economic success botswana19
An economic Success: Botswana
  • Botswana is an outlier respect to African sub-Saharian countries
  • Good Institutions play an important role
  • Why does Botswana get good institutions
    • Colonial origins
    • Original population Density
    • Ethnolinguistic Fragmentation
slide20
Botswana vs. Ghana and Somalia
    • Tribal Institutions encouraged constraints on political Leaders
    • Limited effect of Colonization
    • Elites had economic Interests in the development
    • In Ghana no limits on the ruling class because it suppressed the opposition
    • Somalia is initially very similar to Botswana (no ethnic differences) and The British rule did not impact so much
    • Somalia structure in clans highly divisive
17th century britain and the netherlands vs france and spain
17th-century Britain and The Netherlands vs. France and Spain
  • Commercial interests where politically stronger in the Netherlands and in Britain
    • In Britain the Glorious revolution of 1688 limited the power of the crown
  • The Netherlands became independent from Spain in the 16th century
    • The Merchant Supported the leadership of William of Orange and gained the independence
    • Followed a more "capitalistic" regime ∙
  • The Power of the monarchy in France and Spain blocked the development of institutions (North)
    • The Crown used many predatory methods to raise revenues
south vs north america in the 18th and 19th centuries
South vs. North America in the 18th and 19th Centuries
  • Powerful groups in North America Favoured the enforcement of Property rights, in South America opposed the industrialization
  • No powerful landed Aristocracy in the United States
    • Essentially Poor Europeans migrated to North America, low density at the beginning
    • Labor shortages in NA give the landlords less power
    • The north America was a settler colony: They opposed institutions giving power to landed interests
  • In South and central America more density: African slaves and Native population:
    • The landed aristocracy got more power and opposed to the industrialization
korea and taiwan vs congo
Korea and Taiwan vs Congo
  • All 3 were dictatorship
    • In Korea and Taiwan they pursued developmental policies
      • Threat of Communism (political Constraints)
      • In Korea and Taiwan alliance between dictator and business
    • Mobutu in Congo set a very Kleptocratic regime
        • Belgians set a very predatory colony
        • Mobutu continued to rule without control
to summarise
To Summarise
  • There is a general tendency toward Democracy
  • Paths are different
  • Unclear the relationship growth vs Democracy
  • More Inequality less Democracy
  • Institutions appear good for Growth
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