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Actuaries in Financial Markets (Session C2) PowerPoint PPT Presentation


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Actuaries in Financial Markets (Session C2). CAS Annual Meeting November 2007 Chicago, IL Scott J. Swanay, FCAS Swanay Sports FantasyBaseballSherpa.com. Fantasy Sports – Overview. Group of fans form/join a fantasy league

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Actuaries in financial markets session c2 l.jpg

Actuaries in Financial Markets (Session C2)

CAS Annual Meeting

November 2007

Chicago, IL

Scott J. Swanay, FCAS

Swanay Sports

FantasyBaseballSherpa.com


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Fantasy Sports – Overview

  • Group of fans form/join a fantasy league

  • Before season starts league participants pick real-life players for their fantasy team

  • During season fantasy teams accumulate points based on how their players perform in real life

  • At end of season fantasy team with most points wins


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Fantasy SportsTypes of Games

  • Rotisserie (e.g. – Baseball, Basketball)

  • Points-based (e.g. – Football)

  • Salary Cap (All sports)


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Rotisserie Games

  • Customer provides league-specific inputs

  • Apply the Sherpa’s algorithm

  • Customer receives player rankings


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Customer’s Inputs

  • Eligible players

  • #Teams (in Customer’s league)

  • Scoring categories

  • Roster requirements


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The Sherpa’s Algorithm

  • Project stats for upcoming season

  • Translate projected stats into point totals by category

  • Factor in position scarcity (supply & demand)


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Player Rankings

  • Overall ranking for all players

  • Rankings of players at each position

  • Suggested player dollar values for auction leagues


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Points-based Games

  • Unlike Rotisserie games, scores in individual categories don’t matter

  • Only objective is to accumulate the most points overall

  • Most commonly associated with fantasy football, but can be used in other sports too


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Salary Cap Games

  • Each team starts season with same amount of dollars to spend on players

  • Start by assembling most efficient lineup (highest points per dollar at each position)

  • Use marginal analysis to maximize points within salary cap constraint


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Fantasy Football Tip

The players that get your fantasy football team to the playoffs are not necessarily the players who will help you win your league’s championship – always pay attention to matchups, especially during playoff weeks!


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Fantasy Football Tip (Cont)

Think of fantasy football season as having two distinct stages

  • Regular season (usually NFL Weeks 1-13)

  • Playoffs (usually NFL Weeks 14-16)


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3 Offenses with Favorable Schedules NFL Weeks 14-16

  • Cleveland (@ NYJ, vs Buf, @ Cin)

  • Cincinnati (vs StL, @ SF, vs Cle)

  • Tennessee (vs SD, @KC, vs NYJ)


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7 Offenses with Unfavorable Schedules NFL Weeks 14-16

  • Seattle (vs Ari, @ Car, vs Bal)

  • Miami (@ Buf, vs Bal, @ NE)

  • Philadelphia (vs NYG, @ Dal, @ NO)

  • Houston (vs TB, vs Den, @ Ind)

  • New York Jets (vs Cle, @ NE, @ Ten)

  • New Orleans (@ Atl, vs Ari, vs Phi)

  • Oakland (@ GB, vs Ind, @ Jax)


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4 Defenses with Favorable Schedules NFL Weeks 14-16

  • Tennessee (vs SD, @ KC, vs NYJ)

  • Minnesota (@ SF, vs Chi, vs Was)

  • Seattle (vs Ari, @ Car, vs Bal)

  • Green Bay (vs Oak, @ StL, @ Chi)


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4 Defenses with Unfavorable Schedules NFL Weeks 14-16

  • St. Louis (@ Cin, vs GB, vs Pit)

  • Oakland (@ GB, vs Ind, @ Jax)

  • NY Jets (vs Cle, @ NE, @ Ten)

  • Houston (vs TB, vs Den, @ Ind)


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Contact Info

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

Scott J. Swanay, FCAS

President & Chief Sherpa

(212) 749-5433

[email protected]

www.FantasyBaseballSherpa.com


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