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Modelling of streamflow reduction due to climate change in the Murray-Hotham River catchment

Modelling of streamflow reduction due to climate change in the Murray-Hotham River catchment. Oral Presentation by Ryan Want Supervisor: Dr Faisal Anwar. Background. Streamflow generation. Climate change The South West of Western Australia (SWWA). 800 600 400 200. May – October.

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Modelling of streamflow reduction due to climate change in the Murray-Hotham River catchment

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  1. Modelling of streamflow reduction due to climate change in the Murray-Hotham River catchment Oral Presentation by Ryan Want Supervisor: Dr Faisal Anwar

  2. Background Streamflow generation

  3. Climate change • The South West of Western Australia (SWWA) 800 600 400 200 May – October Annual Rainfall (mm) May – July August – October 1952 1962 1972 1982 1992 Year

  4. Towns Murray Basin Rivers WA Coastline Murray-Hotham Catchment Murray Basin Murray-Hotham River catchment

  5. Methodology • LUCICAT Modelling Input Data Modelled Streamflow Future Calibrated LUCICAT Model GCM Rainfall Data Modelled Streamflow Current

  6. Input data: - Response units - Attributes & land uses - Channel and node network - Global parameters - Rainfall & evaporation

  7. Grid rainfall data

  8. Calibration of the LUCICAT model - Carried out at 5 gauging stations - Calibrated to within ±5%

  9. General Circulation Models (GCMs) - Future rainfall datasets - 11 different models • Emission Scenarios - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) - A2 and B1 emission scenarios 2046 2065 2081 2100

  10. Results • Rainfall Projections Rainfall Reduction (%)

  11. Streamflow Projections Streamflow Reduction (%)

  12. GCM Variation

  13. Conclusions • Significant rainfall reductions forecast over the next century • Streamflow response projected to be even more dramatic

  14. GCM Variation • Modelling Uncertainty • Projections are not predictions • SWWA faces huge challenge

  15. Recommendations • Further research into modelling uncertainty • Rainfall data sourced by several different methods to eliminate bias • Further research into pan evaporation levels is needed

  16. Significance • Up to date and accurate projections • Current data up to 2010 • Water Resource Managers: - Catchment management strategies - Plan for the future

  17. Thank you for listening.

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