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Multi-Model Comparisons of the Sensitivity of the Atmospheric Response to the SORCE Solar Irradiance Data Set within the SPARC-SOLARIS Activity. LASP seminar , 18 October 2011, Boulder.

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slide1

Multi-Model Comparisons of the Sensitivity of the Atmospheric Response to the SORCE Solar Irradiance Data Set within the SPARC-SOLARIS Activity

LASP seminar, 18 October 2011, Boulder

K. Matthes (1,2), J.D. Haigh(3), F. Hansen (1,2), J.W. Harder(4), S. Ineson(5), K. Kodera(6,7), U. Langematz (2), D.R. Marsh (8), A.W. Merkel (4), P.A. Newman (9), S. Oberländer (2), A.A. Scaife(5), R.S. Stolarski(9,10), W.H. Swartz(11)

(1) Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum (GFZ), Potsdam, Germany; (2) Freie Universität Berlin, Institute für Meteorologie, Berlin, Germany; (3) Imperial College, London, UK; (4) LASP, CU, Boulder, USA; (5) Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK; (6) Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan; (7)STEL University of Nagoya, Nagoya, Japan; (8) NCAR, Boulder USA; (9) NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, USA; (10)John Hopkins University, Baltimore, USA; (11) JHU Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, USA

outline
Outline

Introduction/Motivation: Solar influences on climate

SOLARIS projectandobjectives

Uncertainty in solar irradiancedata

Preliminaryresultsfromthe multi-model comparison

Summary

Outlook

slide3

Introduction/Motivation: natural vs. anthropogenicclimatefactors

IPCC (2007)

slide4

Solar Influences on Climate

  • Reviews in Geophysics 2010
  • (open access sponsored by SCOSTEP)
  • Introduction
  • 2.Solar Variability
    • Causes of TSI variability
    • Decadal-scale solar variability
    • Century-scale variability
    • TSI and Galactic cosmic rays
  • 3. Climate Observations
    • Decadal variations in the stratosphere
    • Decadal variations in the troposphere
    • Decadal variations at the Earth’s surface
    • Century-scale variations
  • 4. Mechanisms
    • TSI
    • UV
    • Centennial-scale irradiance variations
    • Charged particle effects
  • 5.Solar Variability and Global Climate Change
  • 6. Summary / Future Directions
slide5

Solar Variability

(1975-2010)

Sunspot number

F10.7 cm flux

Magnesium ii

Open solar flux

Galactic cosmic ray counts

Total solar irradiance

Geomagnetic Ap index

Gray et al. (2010)

slide6

Climate Observations

....beginning with the pioneering work of Karin Labitzke and Harry van Loon

Correlations F10.7cm flux vs. 30hPa temperatures in July

30hPa Heights North Pole vs. F10.7 cm flux - February

Labitzke,

Labitzke and van Loon ....

slide7

Tropospheric winds

NCEP Zonal Mean Wind (m/s)

(1979-2002)

Schematic of Jetstream

11-year Solar Signal (Max-Min)

blocking events => cold winds from the east over Europe

blocking events longer lived for solar minima (Barriepedro et al., 2008)

Haigh, Blackburn, Simpson

observed annual mean solar signal in ozone 100 f10 7 and temperature k 100 f10 7
Observed Annual Mean Solar Signal in Ozone (%/100 f10.7) and Temperature (K/100 f10.7)

SSU/MSU4 (1979-2005)

+2%

+2%

+2%

SAGE I/II Data (1979-2005)

+1K

Randel et al. (2009)

95% significant

Randel and Wu (2007)

Solar Maximum:

More UV radiation => higher temperatures

More ozone => higher temperatures

slide9

Climate Observations

11-year Solar Signal (Max-Min) Composites

Dec/Jan/Feb

Sea surface temperature:

11 Max peak years

Precipitation:

3 Max peak years

van Loon, Meehl, White

slide10

Surface Temperatures: IPCC

Solar variations cannot explain observed 20th century global temperature changes

long-term trend in solar activity appears to be decreasing, as we come out of the current ‘Grand Maximum’

anthropogenic + natural forcings

natural forcings only

slide11

Climate Observations: Summary

Lots of examples of 11-yr solar influence in the stratosphere, troposphere and at the surface (e.g., temperatures (LvL), SSTs, mean sea level pressure, zonal and vertical winds, tropical circulations: Hadley, Walker, annular modes, clouds, precipitation), but predominantly regional response and sporadic in time.

No evidence that solar variations are a major factor in driving recent climate change; if anything, radiative forcing looks as though it is reducing as we possibly come out of the current grand maximum.

BUT, as we start to predict climate on a regional basis, it will be important to include solar variations in our models.

slide12

Climate Models:

Majority of coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models include only total solar irradiance (TSI) variations, i.e. the so-called ‘bottom-up’ mechanism.

More recent climate models now include the ‘top-down’ mechanism via the stratosphere.

Some specialist models also now include charged particle effects, e.g. energetic particle fluxes, solar proton events etc.

mechanisms sun climate
Mechanisms: Sun - Climate

Gray et al. (2010)

slide14

“Top-down mechanism”

based on Kodera and

Kuroda (2002)

Gray et al. (2010)

slide15

EPF

Stratosphericwaves

(direct solar effect)

Troposphericwaves

(response to stratospheric changes)

„Top-down“: Dynamical Interactions and Transfer totheTroposphere10-day meanwave-meanflowinteractions (Max-Min)

u

Matthes et al. (2006)

modeled signal near earth surface monthly mean differences geop height max min 1000hpa
Modeled Signal near Earth SurfaceMonthlymeanDifferencesgeop. Height (Max-Min) – 1000hPa

+

+

-

-

+

+

ΔT

+2K

Matthes et al. (2006)

Significanttroposphericeffects (AO-likepattern) resultfromchanges in waveforcing in thestratosphereandtropospherewhichchangesthe meridional circulationandsurfacepressure

sparc solaris
SPARC-SOLARIS

Goal:investigate solar influence on climatewithspecialfocus on theimportanceofmiddleatmospherechemicalanddynamicalprocessesandtheircouplingtotheEarth‘ssurfacewith CCMs, mechanisticmodelsandobservations

  • Activities:
  • detailedcoordinatedstudies on „top-down“ solar UV and „bottom-up“ TSI mechanismsas well asimpactofhighenergyparticles
  • solar irradiancedatarecommendations
  • (CCMVal, CMIP5)

SOLARIS

slide18

SOLARIS Activities

2006

2010

  • regularworkshops: 2006 (Boulder, CO/USA), 2010 (Potsdam, Germany),
  • 8-12 Oct 2012 (Boulder, CO/USA)
  • sidemeetings: 2005 (IAGA conference, Toulouse, France), 2008 (SPARC,
  • Bologna, Italy), 2010 (SCOSTEP, Berlin, Germany),
  • 2011 (IUGG, Melbourne, Australia)
  • newwebsite: http://sparcsolaris.gfz-potsdam.de
solaris objectives
SOLARIS Objectives
  • What is the characteristic of the observed solar climate signal?
  • What is the mechanism for solar influence on climate? (dynamical and chemical response in the middle atmosphere and its transfer down to the Earth’s surface)
  • How do the different natural and anthropogenic forcings interact? (solar, ENSO, QBO, volcanoes, CO2)
solaris experiments and analyses
SOLARIS Experiments andAnalyses

Coordinated model runstoinvestigatealiasingof different factors in thetropicallowerstratosphere

Coordinated model runstostudytheuncertainty in solar forcing

Analysis of CMIP5 simulations

uncertainty in solar irradiance data
Uncertainty in Solar Irradiance Data

2004-2007

Lean vs. SIM/SORCE

Solar Max-Min

Lean vs. Krivova

Haigh et al., Nature (2010)

Lean et al. (2005)

Krivova et al. (2006)

  • larger variation in Krivova data in 200-300 and 300-400nm range
  • SORCE measurements from 2004 through 2007 show very different spectral distribution (in-phase with solar cycle in UV, out-of-phase in VIS and NIR)
  • => Implications for solar heating and ozone chemistry
1 compare existing model runs participating models
1. Compare Existing Model RunsParticipating Models

Caveat: all the models used a slightly different experimental setup, so it won’t be possible to do an exact comparison

experimental design
Experimental Design

Time series of F10.7cm solar flux

2004:

“solar max”

(declining phase of SC23)

„solar max“ 2004

„solar min“ 2007

2007:

“solar min”

(close to minimum of SC23)

january mean differences 25n 25s
JanuaryMeanDifferences(25N-25S)

ShortwaveHeating Rate (K/d)

Temperature (K)

Pressure (hPa)

Pressure (hPa)

Height (km)

Height (km)

  • larger shortwave heating rate and temperature differences for SORCE than NRL SSI data
  • FUB-EMAC and HadGEMonly include radiation, not ozone effects

NRL SSI

SORCE

january mean differences 25n 25s1
JanuaryMeanDifferences(25N-25S)

Ozone (%)

Temperature (K)

Pressure (hPa)

Pressure (hPa)

Height (km)

Height (km)

  • larger ozone variations below 10hPa and smaller variations above for
  • SORCE than NRL SSI data
  • height for negative ozone signal in upper strat. differs between models

NRL SSI

SORCE

shortwave heating rate differences january k d
Shortwave Heating Rate Differences January (K/d)

HadGEM

IC2D

WACCM

EMAC-FUB

GEOS

NRL SSI

SORCE

  • NRL SSI shortwave heating rates: 0.2 to 0.3 K/d
  • SORCE shortwave heating rates: 0.7 to >1.0 K/d (3x NRL SSI response)
slide28

TemperatureDifferencesJanuary (K)

HadGEM

IC2D

WACCM

EMAC-FUB

GEOS

NRL SSI

SORCE

  • NRL SSI temperatures: 0.5 to 1.0 K (stratopause)
  • SORCE temperatures: 2.5 to 4.0 K (4-5x NRL SSI response)
              • colder polar stratosphere
slide29

OzoneDifferencesJanuary (%)

HadGEM

IC2D

WACCM

EMAC-FUB

GEOS

NRL SSI

SORCE

  • larger ozone variations below 10hPa and smaller variations above for
  • SORCE than NRL SSI data
  • height for negative ozone signal in upper strat. differs between models
slide30

Zonal Wind DifferencesJanuary (m/s)

HadGEM

IC2D

WACCM

EMAC-FUB

GEOS

NRL SSI

SORCE

  • consistently stronger zonal wind signals for SORCE than NRL SSI data
  • wind signal in SORCE data characterized by strong westerly winds at polar latitudes, and significant and similar signals in NH troposphere
sorce wind differences nh winter
SORCE Wind Differences NH Winter

HadGEM

IC2D

WACCM

EMAC-FUB

GEOS

Dec

Jan

Feb

sorce geopot height differences january gpdm
SORCE Geopot. Height Differences January (gpdm)

HadGEM

WACCM

EMAC-FUB

GEOS

500 hPa

NAO/AO positive signal during solar max strongest for HadGEM and WACCM

100 hPa

10 hPa

solar cycle and the nao
Solar Cycle and the NAO

Solar Max: NAO positive (highindex)

  • Colderstratosphere => stronger NAO,
  • i.e. strongerIcelandlow, higher
  • pressureoverAzores
  • amplifiedstormtrack
  • mild conditionsover northern
  • Europe andeastern US
  • => dry conditions in themediterranean
solar min surface pressure signal
Solar Min Surface Pressure Signal

Model (HadGEM) Observations (Reanalyses)

25 (50%) of

interannual

standarddeviation

90 (95%)

significances

Ineson et al. (2011)

solar cycle and the nao1
Solar Cycle and the NAO

Solar Min: NAO negative (lowindex)

Solar Max: NAO positive (highindex)

Matthes (2011)

summary
Summary
  • Consistently larger amplitudes in 2004 to 2007 in solar signals for SORCE than for NRL SSI data in temperature, ozone, shortwave heating rates, zonal winds and geopotential heights
  • Larger ozone variations below 10hPa and smaller variations above for SORCE than NRL SSI data; height for negative ozone signal in upper stratosphere differs between models
  • Solar cycle effect on AO/NAO contributes to substantial fraction of typical year-to-year variations and therefore is a potentially useful source of improved decadal climate predictability (Ineson et al. (2011))

 Results for the SORCE spectral irradiance data are provisional because of the need for continued degradation correction validation and because of the short length of the SORCE time series which does not cover a full solar cycle

outlook
Outlook

Next step: coordinated sensitivity experiments for a typical solar max (2002) and solar min (2008) spectrum from the NRL SSI and the SORCE data to investigate the atmospheric and surface climate response between the models in a more consistent way

=> White paper until early December, experiments to be started early 2012 in order to be ready for the SOLARIS/HEPPA workshop 8-12 October 2012 here in Boulder!

slide38

Thankyouverymuch!

Estes Park/RMNP, 10-15-2011

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