Somalia Conflict Analysis Conflict-Sensitive Assistance May 18, 2006

1. Somalia Conflict Analysis Conflict-Sensitive Assistance May 18, 2006

2. Purpose of Study • Increase understanding of conflict sources and dynamics in Somalia: • Inform design of interventions • Enable effective implementation • Enable “do no harm” and potential conflict prevention Somalia Conflict Analysis

3. Conflict Sensitivity • Consider potential impact of all strategies and interventions on the conflict environment • avoid contributing to escalation • if possible contribute to de-escalation • Sometimes trade-off between technical solutions and conflict impact Somalia Conflict Analysis

4. Somalia Conflict Analysis • Bank-led exercise with multi-donor support (UNDP, SIDA, DFID) • Partnerships with local NGOs from three regions of Somalia – Somaliland, Puntland and South-Central Somalia • Advisory group of donors and organizations active on Somalia • External reviewers Somalia Conflict Analysis

5. Somalia Conflict Analysis • Desk study using Conflict Analysis Framework (CAF) variables adapted to Somali context • Analysis of preliminary findings and determination of key issues in each region for fieldwork • Fieldwork by teams in each region using different qualitative techniques • Regional reports and synthesis report • Use of findings for policy/program development Somalia Conflict Analysis

6. Clan Identities: findings • Armed conflicts in Somalia usually take place along clan lines, but clan identity is not cause of conflict • Clan identities shaped by leaders to pursue control of resources and power • When manipulated, clan identities can create and exacerbate divisions • Clan groups can serve as destructive or constructive forces, e.g. by moderating traditional conflicts • How can we best provide material and financial aid in this environment? Somalia Conflict Analysis

7. Clan Identities: pointers • Make sure aid does not fuel clan-group competition or divisions • Support cross-clan activities and institutions • Use aid to help bridge divided groups • Consider role of clan leaders • Consider effects of material and financial aid and benefits on clan dynamics Somalia Conflict Analysis

8. State and Governance: findings • Struggle for control of the state – i.e. access to political power and economic resources - has been a continuing source of conflict • Previous experiences have made Somalis suspicious of government • How can state-building be supported in a way that minimizes chances of conflict? Somalia Conflict Analysis

9. State and Governance: pointers • Be prepared for political struggle around state-building • Support clan-neutral governance functions • Learn from and build on institutions that work (e.g. non-state actors) • Promote institutionsthat are inclusive (clans, sub-clans, ethnicity, socioeconomic characteristics) Somalia Conflict Analysis

10. Economic Development: findings • Livestock ban hurt pastoral dominated economy • Remittances are vital lifeline • Private sector activity created dynamic sectors • Qat (khat) consumption and trade • Control of commercial arteries • Profit-driven diaspora promotes cross-clan business partnerships • What would be conflict-sensitive economic priorities? Somalia Conflict Analysis

11. Economic Development: pointers • Don’t create an aid dependent Somalia – in the past increased state fragility and conflict • Consider effects of large-scale projects and high-value investments on lineage-based division – small may be better • Consider ways to build nonpartisan government control of revenue sources • Build on the strengths of local communities and mobilize Somalia’s human resources Somalia Conflict Analysis

12. Economic Development: pointers • Support economic activities that unite not divide – sub-sectors have different characteristics • Prioritize the economic backbone of society, but consider ways to strengthen economic diversification • Help develop systems for fair natural resource management • Support employment among young men, and reintegrate militiamen into mainstream economic activities Somalia Conflict Analysis

13. Conflict Monitoring • Monitor indicators of change – escalation/de-escalation of conflict • Assess potential impact of aid interventions on the conflict situation Somalia Conflict Analysis