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Photovoltaics versus Concentrated Solar Power. Dr. Martin Stickel. ICCI International Energy and Environment Fair and Conference Isanbul, 14 th May 2010. Fichtner GmbH & Co. KG Photovoltaics and Concentrated Solar Power Financial Results depending on Plant Location Summary. Agenda.

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Photovoltaics versus concentrated solar power

Photovoltaics versus Concentrated Solar Power

Dr. Martin Stickel

ICCI

International Energy and Environment Fair and Conference

Isanbul, 14th May 2010


Agenda

Fichtner GmbH & Co. KG

Photovoltaics and Concentrated Solar Power

Financial Results depending on Plant Location

Summary

Agenda


The fichtner group

The Fichtner Group

  • Established in 1922 – still a family-owned concern

  • Germany’s biggest independent engineering and consultancy enterprise

  • More than 1700 employees worldwide – 450 in our Home Office

  • Project experience in 150 countries

  • Over 1200 ongoing projects – around 650 in our Home Office

  • Active on behalf of:• enterprises in the central services and utilities sector • energy-intensive industries• international development and commercial banks • government and communal institutions and authorities

  • Total turnover of 179 million € in 2008 – 67% international turnover

3


Fichtner independent engineering and consulting

FICHTNER – Independent Engineering and Consulting

Founded in 1922 and 100% family owned since then

Germany’s biggest independent engineering and consultancy company

Staff strength:

Home office (Stuttgart)ca. 450

Totalca. 1,700

Turn-over 2008:

Home office: 122 million EUR

Total: 179 million EUR

On a global level FICHTNER is on average involved in approx.1,200 projects with an overall investment volume of about 60 billion EUR.

FICHTNERis represented in more than 50 countries worldwide.


F ichtner turkey

FICHTNER Turkey

FICHTNERhas been working for more than 40 years on various projects in Turkey

Established in July 2008, FICHTNER Turkey is100% owned by FICHTNER Germany

Completed numerous projects mainly in the private sector

Brought together experienced international experts & local engineers/consultantsand worked on the most important projects of Turkey

Vision of FICHTNER Turkey:

Become one of the biggest well established engineering companies in the region

Provide state-of-the art engineering and technical services to meet the demands of the growing energy market

Make use of Turkey’s young population: Train local engineers and technical staff to make them compatible with international experts

Use them for the most challenging projects in the region and worldwide


Renewable energy technologies

Renewable Energy Technologies

Hydropower

Wind Power

Solarthermal Power

Photovoltaic

Geothermal Power

Solid Biomass

Sewage and Landfill Gas

Biogas

Biomass to Liquid (BtL)

Fuel Cells


Our range of engineering and consultancy services

Our Range of Engineering and Consultancy Services

  • Project phaseOur serviceObjective

  • Concept studyDevelopment and review ofDefinition of approach realization concepts

  • Feasibility studyInvestigation of technical andFinancing agreement/depiction offinancial viabilityfinancial performance

  • Conceptual and Drawing up permit Construction and operation layoutengineering application documentspermits

  • Detail engineeringDrawing up tender documents Project- and client-specific tender documents

  • Tendering and Bid evaluation and Plant procurement to meet quality,contractaward contract negotiationstime and cost requirements

  • Construction and installationSite supervisionFunctional plant

  • Commissioning / test operationSupervision of commissioning Production-ready plantand tests

  • OperationCheck of routine operation Regular commercial utilization


Agenda1

Fichtner GmbH & Co. KG

Photovoltaics and Concentrated Solar Power

Financial Results depending on Plant Location

Summary

Agenda


Solar irradiation in turkey

Solar Irradiation in Turkey

Turkey shows similar irradiation characteristics as Spain, one of the largest solar energy markets.


Worldwide installed pv supply

Worldwide Installed PV Supply


Pv grid parity in germany

PV „Grid Parity“ in Germany

Bundesverband Solarwirtschaft


Solar technologies

Solar Technologies


Photovoltaics

Photovoltaics

Source: Juwi AG


Photovoltaic power module types

Photovoltaic Power - Module Types

  • Mono-crystalline silicon: Most efficient technology (efficiencies of around 18% (commercial) to 28% (research)

  • Multi-crystalline silicon: Cheaper than mono-crystalline silicon but also less efficient. Research cells approach 24% efficiency, and commercial modules approach around 16% efficiency.

  • Thin film:

    • Cheaper than crystalline silicon but less efficient.

    • Various materials (amorphous silicon, Cadmium Telluride, Copper Indium Diselluride (CIS))

Selection of the technology depending on: site, irradiation, temperature, costs vs. efficiency etc.


Photovoltaic power module tracking

Photovoltaic Power - Module Tracking


Concentrated solar power csp

Concentrated Solar Power (CSP)

  • General Technology Principle

    • Concentration of solar energy flow (direct irradiation required)

    • Conversion of Solar irradiation into high temperature heat

    • Conversion of high temperature heat into mechanical energy

    • Conventional power generation technology

  • Characteristics

    • High energy density

    • Conventional components used (hybridisation possible)

    • Economy of scale leads to large scale plants

    • Possibility of thermal energy storage

  • Types of Solar Thermal Power Plants

    • Parabolic Trough

    • Fresnel Trough

    • Solar Tower (Central Receiver)

    • Parabolic Dish (Dish/Stirling)

    • Solar Chimney


Parabolic trough

395°C

Steam

370°C, 100bar

Solar HX

Air and vapour

Steam turbine

30 MW

Cooling

Tower

G ~

Storage

Air

Air

Condenser

295°C

ParabolicTrough Field

Electricityto the grid

Parabolic Trough

Source: Fichtner


Csp advantage operation without sunshine

CSP Advantage: Operation without Sunshine

Thermal storage transfers excess solar heat into evening hours.

  • Extension of full load operation to night time hours

  • Reduction of part load operation (cloud transients)

  • Dispatchable power generation

  • State-of-the-art technology: Two-tank molten salt storage (E.g. AndaSol 1-3: 1050 MWh [7.5 h])


Trends expectations

Trends & Expectations

Capital Costs PV plants:

2.5-4 €/Wp EPC prices depending on module type and tracking system

Decreasing module costs (future 1€/Wp), i.e. even lower EPC prices

Capital Costs CSP plants:

4-6 €/Wp (parabolic trough, 50MW)

Due to technological innovations and economies of scale decreasing electricity generation costs expected

Peak load or “base load”

PV: Peak load plants purely depending on global solar irradiation

CSP: Possibility of energy storage & relatively high predictability of plant availability

Project Capacities

PV: 1kW – 50MW

CSP:Parabolic trough 10MW – 300MWFresnel 30MW (first commercial plant)


Agenda2

Fichtner GmbH & Co. KG

Photovoltaics and Concentrated Solar Power

Financial Results depending on Plant Location

Summary

Agenda


Feasibility of solar projects

Feasibility of Solar Projects

Plant Concept & Simulation of Electricity Generation

Revenues for Electricity Sales

Feed-in Tariff

Plant CAPEX

Plant OPEX

Modelling of Project Economics

Fichtner Cost Database

Net present value

Internal rate of return

Levelized electricity costs…


Pv performance projection example

PV Performance Projection - Example


Pv performance projection example1

PV Performance Projection - Example


Site assessment

Site Assessment

Source: Google Maps


Site assessment1

Site Assessment

  • Example: Johannesburg, South Africa


Sensitivity of o m costs

Sensitivity of O&M Costs


Sensitivity of land costs

Sensitivity of Land Costs


Sensitivity of ambient temperature

Sensitivity of Ambient Temperature


Sensitivity of direct normal irradiation

Sensitivity of Direct Normal Irradiation


Agenda3

Fichtner GmbH & Co. KG

Photovoltaics and Concentrated Solar Power

Financial Results depending on Plant Location

Summary

Agenda


Global annual solar cell production

Global Annual Solar Cell Production

Source: Photon


Pv projection of module production capacity

PV: Projection of Module Production Capacity

Source: Paula Mints, Navigant Consulting, Inc., 2009


Summary

Summary

  • No general „better“ technology but project specific technology selection

    • Size, topography, irradiation (global / direct), Accessibility, grid condition

    • Feed-in tariffs

    • Relevance of dispatchability / storage

  • Design optimization required for each project

  • Thorough project development and due diligence process

    • Reliable design

    • “Bankable” EPC and O&M Contracts

      • performance and plant acceptance criteria and procedures

      • liquidated damages and incentive schemes

    • Reliable Yield Forecasts

  • Enormous potential for solar technologies in Turkey and worldwide


  • Contact

    Contact

    • Whom to contact?

    FICHTNER GmbH & Co. KG

    Büyükdere Cad. 87/5

    34387 Mecidiyeköy

    Istanbul

    Turkey

    Phone 212- 2171767

    Fax 212-2178124

    Mobile 0549-2171775

    E-Mail [email protected]

    www.fichtner.com.tr

    FICHTNER GmbH & Co. KG

    Sarweystraße 3

    70191 Stuttgart

    Germany

    Dr. Martin Stickel

    Manager PV / Solar Technologies

    Phone+49 (0)711 8995-684

    Fax+49 (0)711 8995-495

    Mobile+49 (0) 172 6358294

    [email protected]

    www.fichtner.de


    Typical project constellation

    Typical Project Constellation

    Investor

    Lender

    Insurance company

    Equity

    Loans

    Policies

    Solar Project

    Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV)

    Operation

    Contract

    Project

    Rights

    Developer

    Management

    O&M Contract

    Power purchase agreement

    EPC Contract

    Utility

    Service Company

    EPC contractor(s)

    Objectives:

    • Implementation of a long life power plants with high energy yield and availability

    • Proper and safe operation complying with the relevant requirements

    • Low cost, high return on investment


    Typical solar power technical due diligence

    Typical Solar Power Technical Due Diligence

    Phase I: Pre-Financial Close Due Diligence

    • Project structure and obligations of project parties

    • Solar radiation measurements and long-term global solar radiation assumptions

    • Technical concept such as layout, grid connection, civil works

    • Energy yield assessment as to the reliability of the input data, simulation, methods and results (SOLPRO / PVSYST)

    • Suitability of site (e.g. radiation, temperature, site complexity, soil conditions)

    • Contracts / project agreements including mainly: EPC-Contract, grid connection agreement, PPA, O&M, technical and administrative operation

    • Adequacy of the technical warranties and verification procedures (e.g. performance test, availability, technical characteristics)

    • Qualification of involved parties, QC/QA concept

    • Permits and licenses (status, constraints e.g. due to noise, etc.)

    • Project insurances

    • Time schedule /

    • Project management / risk management

    • Financial model: elaboration of model or providing input data to bank’s / financial advisor’s model

    • Analysis of project sensitivities / risk assessment

    Facilitate investment / financing decisions

    Conceptual study and decision-making phase

    Engineering and contract award

    Construction

    Operation


    Typical solar power technical due diligence1

    Typical Solar Power Technical Due Diligence

    Phase II: Construction Monitoring

    • Construction monitoring (compliance with contract / specifications)

    • Compliance with project schedule

    • Review of EPC contractor‘s / owner‘s progress report

    • Site and workshop inspections

    • Preparation of monthly or quarterly progress reports

    Facilitate investment / financing decisions

    Phase III: Testing and completion certificate

    Conceptual study and decision-making phase

    • Certification of completion

    • Review of commissioning and of trial operation

    • Attendance and monitoring of the performance and reliability tests

    • Review of performance test results in view of liquidated damages requests

    • PV plant installation and mounting inspections

    Engineering and contract award

    Phase IV: Monitoring during term of project loan facilities

    Construction

    • Carry out annual site visits

    • Preparation of (semi-) annual operating status reports including

      • operating performance (availability, power performance, energy yield)

      • maintenance and extraordinary events

    Operation


    Pv world market 2008

    PV World Market 2008

    Bundesverband Solarwirtschaft


    Integrated expertise

    Technologies

    Planning

    Water and Infrastructure

    IT, Economics and Finances

    Integrated Expertise

    Energy Technology

    Comprehensive technological know-how as foundation

    • conventional technologies

    • innovative technologies / renewable energies

    Power Supply

    Extensive planning experience in all project phases

    Classical planning services are rounded off by

    our over-arching expertise in consultancy

    Environmental Technology

    Consultancy

    Broad-based range of services from one source

    Complete solutions on a sound technical and economic footing


    Integrated solar combined cycle iscc

    Integrated Solar Combined Cycle (ISCC)

    Stack Exhaust

    100°C

    395°C

    Steam

    540°C, 100bar

    Solar HX

    HRSG

    Air and vapour

    Steam turbine

    60 MW

    G ~

    Storage

    Cooling

    Tower

    Air

    Air

    Condenser

    295°C

    Exhaust

    600°C

    ParabolicTrough Field

    Electricityto the grid

    Gas turbine 90 MW

    Solar Island

    Combined Cycle Island

    G ~


    Solar thermal power plants fresnel

    Solar Thermal Power Plants – Fresnel

    • Principle / Characteristics

      • Line-focussing with long mirror strips onto fixed absorber

      • Lower optical efficiency compared to parabolic trough

      • More simple design offers potentially lower investment cost

      • Direct steam generation in absorber (25 – 100 bar / 270 – 550°C)

      • Conventional water-steam-cycle (now saturated, future superheated)

      • Efficient use of land due to compact design

    • Status

      • Relatively new technology

      • Several pilot plants in operation in Australia, Spain and USA

      • First pre-commercial demonstration plant for electricity generation

      • (5 MWe) started operation end of 2008 in California

      • First large scale plant shall start operation in 2012 in California

      • using Ausra’s Compact Linear Fresnel Reflector technology.

      • New 30MW project announced in Spain, recent large investment by Swiss utility


    Photovoltaics versus concentrated solar power

    Solar Thermal Power Plants – Solar Tower

    • Principle / Characteristics

      • Tracked field of mirrors („heliostats“), point focussing (factor > 500)

      • Concentration on small area on top of the tower („receiver“)

      • High concentration factors = high temperatures (up to 700°C)

      • High solar-electric efficiency due to higher temperatures

      • Different heat transfer fluids (molten salt, air, water/steam)

      • generation of steam by heat exchanger

      • conventional water-steam-cycle

    • Status

      • Potential successfully demonstrated in several large pilot plants

      • Solar Tower technologies at different development stages

      • First two commercial plants in operation in Spain (PS 10 & 20)

      • Several large plants (>100 MWe) under development in US

      • Despite first commercial plants still more R&D needed


    Pv related services

    PV related services

    • technical due diligences - on behalf of lenders as well as investors

    • techno-economic feasibility and conceptual studies

    • yield projections

    • specifications for large-scale PV installations

    • check of construction and operating contracts - EPC and O&M - under their technical and commercial aspects

    • supervision of construction and progress monitoring

    • participation in acceptance tests

    • verification of electricity yields during operation

    • other PV related technical advisory


    Methodology

    Methodology


    Methodology financial calculation

    Methodology – Financial Calculation

    • Levelized electricity costs (LEC) in €/kWh

    ItInvestment expenditures in the year t in €

    MtOperations and maintenance expenditures in the year t in €

    EtElectricity generation in the year t in kWh

    iDiscount rate

    nLife time of the system in years


    Site assessment2

    Site Assessment

    • Nassau, Bahamas


    Sensitivity of wind speed

    Sensitivity of Wind Speed


    Extract of reference projects solar thermal

    Extract of Reference Projects – Solar Thermal

    Spain, AndaSol-1, -2, -3:

    Three Solar Rankine Cycle Plants with storage, each 50 MWe

    Spain, PS-10

    10 MW Central Receiver Plant

    BMU / KfW, ZIP Program

    Ten research projects for Market Introduction of Solar Technology

    Greece, Theseus AE

    Project Company

    50 MW Solar Rankine Cycle Plant

    Spain, RentaSolar S.A.

    Project Company for

    PV Power Plants in Spain

    Abu Dhabi:

    Design and Engineering

    100 MWe CST Plant

    Arizona, USA

    Project Development for 250 MWe Solar Rankine Cycle Plant

    India, Mathania

    140 MWe ISCC (solar 30 MWe)

    World Bank

    Global Market Initiative (GMI)EM-Power

    Botswana

    Site Selection and Feasibility Study for 200 Mwe CST Plant

    Egypt, Kuraymat:

    150 MWe ISCC (solar 20 MWe)

    Morocco, Ain Beni Mathar

    400 MWe ISCC (solar 20 MWe)

    Jordan

    Project Development for 50 MWe Solar Rankine Cycle Plant

    Australia

    Site Selection and

    Feasibility Study 200 MW CST Plant

    Egypt, El Nasr

    Solar Process Heat Plant


    Solar irradiation

    Solar Irradiation

    Different technologies use different type of irradiation.


    Solar thermal power plants parabolic trough

    Solar Thermal Power Plants – Parabolic Trough

    • Principle / Characteristics

      • Tracked parabolic trough focuses on a „receiver“ (up to factor 100)

      • Heat transfer fluid (currently synthetic oil) heats up to 393°C in receiver

      • Generation of superheated steam via solar heat exchanger

      • Conventional water-steam-cycle

      • Possibility to store thermal energy (currently molten salt storage)

      • Solar-to-electric efficiency of 12-16%

    • Status

      • Most mature and bankable CSP technology

      • First nine plants (SEGS plants) successfully in operation

      • since more than 20 years in California

      • Several Gigawatts of parabolic trough power plants in

      • planning or already under construction

      • Major cost reduction due to mass production, economy

      • of scale and further technological advancements

      • Next steps: Direct steam generation + implementation

      • of new storage technologies (e.g. concrete)


    Site assessment3

    Site Assessment


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