North Norway European Office Workshop December 17th - New Arctic Politic

1. North Norway European OfficeWorkshop December 17th - New Arctic Politic The industrial Perspectives and Geopolitical Challenges in the Arctic Area Johan Petter Barlindhaug Chairman of the board, North Energy ASProfessor II, High North Center for Business, Bodø

2. Driving Forces in the High North • Geopolitic of the Arctic • Economic interests and long term expectations/threats • Main issues: • Climatic change • Marine resources • Crossing the Arctic Ocean • Energy resources • Geopolitical and future jurisdiction

3. Chilingarov: ”The Arctic is ours and we should manifest our presence” • Canadian Prime Minister Harper: • “Use it or loose it” - about Canadian sovereignty in the Arctic From Aftenposten 08.08.07

4. Arctic statements in USA Scott Borgersen - USA (Foreign Affairs March/April 2008) • ”The combination of new shipping routes, trillions of dollars in possible oil and gas resources, and a poorly defined picture of state ownership makes for a toxic brew” • In this legal no man’s land, Arctic states are pursuing their narrowly defined national interests by laying down sonar nets and arming icebreakers to guard their claims”

5. Sea ice in the Arctic Ocean September 1979-2008 Trend: -11,7% per tiår Kilder: NSIDC & Univ. Bremen

6. Ice Age March 2007/08 2007: 41% multiyear ice 2008: Only 28% multiyear ice

7. Crossing The Arctic Ocean - When? In 2004: Commercial traffic around 2090 In 2007: Commercial traffic around 2040 In 2008: A possible start up in 2010-15

8. The Arctic: Summer temp under 10˚C

9. Crossing the Arctic Ocean - Challenges Olav Orheim • Traffic • Huge cargo vessels • Increased tourist traffic • Physical: • Icing, Drift ice, Ice bergs • New knowledge: • - Politics, Surveillance, Environment, Search and Rescue

10. Crossing the Artic Ocean - new challenges • The North West or the North East Passages are of minor interest from a commercial point of view • The Asian countries represent the driving forces • Search and Rescue • A geopolitical issue of major importance • International cooperation has to be established • Legal framework • IMO requirements • Recommended Practice • Insurance Companies/Requirements

12. Kilde: Fiskeridirektoratet

13. Marine invertebrates as chemical “factories”: • Inactivate / paralyse prey (neurotoxins, analgesics) • Kill preys (cell toxins, cancer drugs) • Digest (enzymes and inhibitors, various) • Defend molecules (anti-viral, anti-bacterial, anti-parasite etc) • Regulatory molecules, stimulators / inhibitors of various • cell parameters including immune regulators • Antioxidants, various • etc. etc. etc. Ref.: Trond Jørgensen

14. A new surveillance regime in the High North • Satellite surveillance • Maritime traffic in the Polar Sea and the Barents Sea • Oil- and gas activity • Fisheries • Oil spill • Improved safety / Search and Rescue • Improved communication and navigation systems • Increased aircraft capacity and number of vessels • Multinational cooperation • Svalbard, an international platform for search and rescue operations

15. The World’s Petroleum Potential North Africa, Middle East Rest of the World Arctic • The Barents Sea • Southern Kara Sea and Western Siberia • Northern Kara Sea • The Laptev Sea • East Siberian Sea • The Chukchi Sea • Alaska North Slope • East Greenland

16. The Barents Sea:One Geological Province – One Ocean

17. Russian Resource Centers

18. Petroleum Development in the Barents Sea 2007 Piped gas Shipped gas Shipped oil

19. Perspectives for Petroleum Development in the Barents Sea Piped gas Shipped gas Shipped oil

20. Statoils ambition ÅSGARD SNØHVIT MELKØYA KIRKENES NORDKINN SPITSBERGEN MURMANSK SHTOKMAN PECHORA SEA NOVAYA ZEMLYA KARA SEA VARANDEY YAMAL

22. Shtokman-development • The first Russian offshore project in the Barents Sea • Will take 20-30 years to complete (3 build. stages) • 1. stage: 51% Gasprom, 25% Total and 24% StatoilHydro • A huge and challenging project - time frame? • A corner stone in the oil and gas development in the North • Northern Norway may play a key-role • Industrial logistics • Back-up facilities • Facilitating industrial activities from other countries

23. Russian-Norwegian Cooperation Zone

24. Geopolitical Challenges in the Arctic • Balancing environmental concerns and industrial possibilities • Delimitation of the continental shelf will create increased bilateral tensions • A Russian dilemma • An area of political tension • An area of great economic importance • An area of cooperation with Western companies • Bilateral issues in the Arctic has to be seen in a broad perspective

25. Governing an Area of Global Interest • The legal framework of jurisdiction is the Law of the Seas • The Ilulissat Declaration of 2008 (5 Arctic Nations) • To secure free and safe maritime traffic new regulations are needed • Transpolar issues has to be addressed and taken care of • Environmental concerns • Indigenous people • Vulnerability and adaptation capacity • The resources, trade route should be utilized to the benefit of the world and with due concern to environmental risks • How do we strengthen the multilateral cooperation • Is the Arctic Council the answer? • Or, do we need a new body?

26. EU Arctic Policy and Norway • Northern Dimension = platform of cooperation Norway and Russia are partners • Areas of closer cooperation? • Energy and security of supply in general • Maritime policy and regulations • Surveillance, search and rescue in the High North • Research programs on Arctic issues • Developing the oil and gas resources in the Barents Sea