1 / 9

Infrastructure Damage in ShakeOut (&ARkStorm)

Infrastructure Damage in ShakeOut (&ARkStorm). RESIN seminar, UC Berkeley, 30 Sep 2009 Keith Porter, Associate Research Professor Civil, Environmental, and Architectural Engineering University of Colorado at Boulder. Damage & social-science studies.

sheba
Download Presentation

Infrastructure Damage in ShakeOut (&ARkStorm)

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. Infrastructure Damage in ShakeOut (&ARkStorm) RESIN seminar, UC Berkeley, 30 Sep 2009 Keith Porter, Associate Research Professor Civil, Environmental, and Architectural Engineering University of Colorado at Boulder

  2. Damage & social-science studies Earth-science effects modeled by several SCEC experts, discussed and revised after a large conference Consequent damage assessed by 19 study groups: • HAZUS study, replaced piecewise by research teams, expert panels, & combinations • Informed by computer models • Grounded in historic evidence • Acknowledge need to extrapolate from past experience and limited analysis Economic analysis and emergency response outcomes by USC, OES, CU, and others

  3. Infrastructure damage + elevators, hazmat, and community impacts on Palm Springs, CA

  4. Charge to researchers and panelists • Panels included operators, maintenance personnel, PIOs, many of whom who were already engaged with Caltech & USGS. Coordinating agencies little help. • Scope & duration of panels (3.5 hr) provided with the invitation • Researchers were top experts in their field, e.g., Scawthorn • Acquire & accept hazard information • Review findings of “upstream” lifelines (power, water, roads…) • Characterize assets at risk, past studies, past events • Interpret computer models, if available, but acknowledge differences in scale, interaction, and other issues of extrapolation etc. • Produce one realistic damage outcome, depiction of restoration (low stakes?). Depiction evolved during the discussion, sometimes accommodating political sensitivities. Spanned from granular to systemic damage & restoration: why & where would damage occur, how would restoration occur? • Identify promising mitigation measures, research needs. (Carrot) • Later, review studies by others, revisit findings (lifeline interaction) • Schedule: 3-6 months

  5. MMI, PGA, PGV, Sa(0.3), Sa(1.0), Sa(3.0) maps produced Provided to damage estimation teams and panels: ground motion maps, showing realistic directionality effects (downtown LA, etc.) cannot by duplicated using traditional approaches. Before physics-based modeling, loss < 1/3 of that modeled here

  6. Scawthorn fire following earthquake study • 1,600 ignitions requiring a fire engine • 1,200 exceed capability of 1st engine • Orange County & LA basin: dozens of large fires merge into conflagrations destroying 100s of blocks • 200 million square feet burnt ≈ 133,000 single family dwellings • Property loss: $65 billion • No Santa Ana winds, not worst case • Study vetted by top state and county fire officials with relationships w Shakeout leaders & Scawthon 1989 Loma Prieta 1994 Northridge

  7. Electric power study 10 experts from 5 agencies find: • Immediate loss of power throughout region • Collapse of some high-tension towers, damage to transformers on overhead poles • Generating plants taken offline for inspection • Interesting feedback & revision occurred • Thinking through the scenario & considering LL interaction led to mitigation actions LA, Riverside, & San Bern. Counties: • 30-50% of service restored in 24 hrs • 75-90% restored in 3 days, ~100% in 1-4 mos Ventura, Orange, & Imperial Counties: • 90% restored in 2 days Kern & San Diego Counties: • 90% restored in 24 hr Transmission lines & power plants 1971 San Fernando Earthquake

  8. ARkStorm Scenario: same approach • Hazard info • Windspeed maps, floodmaps (depth & velocity; riverine and coastal), wave heights, etc. in KMZ • Damage assessments similar to ShakeOut • + Ag, offshore, coastal, environmental… • Vetting by review groups as appopriate

  9. Thanks keith.porter@colorado.edu (626) 233-9758

More Related