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1. Introduction title Needs:
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Needs:
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3. Book image
4. Global Challenges in the 21st Century Inequality, Poverty and Climate Change
Solution: Redistribution of Power, Opportunities and Assets, plus transition to low carbon development
How to do it: Effective States and Active Citizenship
5. A famous example: The Abolition of Slavery 1780 ? half a million African slaves work on the sugar plantations of British colonies
1807 ? British Parliament bans the slave trade
1838 ? Slavery banned altogether: 800,000 slaves of the British Empire win their freedom
6. Dynamics of Change Waves of slave rebellion in America and Caribbean ? Haiti becomes first independent black republic in 1804
Individuals and Coalitions ? The Anglican preacher Thomas Clarkson, MP William Wilberforce, Olaudah Equiano (ex slave). The Quakers build the abolitionist movement – the first modern campaign
The anti abolitionist movement inspires others – e.g. suffragettes
7. Some Initial Conclusions Many factors involved in any given change
Path dependence – one change triggers another
Not all changes are consciously pursued
Not all changes are positive
8. 4 Components of Change Context
Technology, environment, demography, globalization
Institutions
Culture, ethnicity, religion, attitudes and beliefs
Civil Service, judiciary, electoral democracy, essential services,
Agents
Social Movements, elites, political leaders, private sector, media
Events
Conflicts, natural disasters, political and economic crises
9. Dynamics and Pathways
10. How Change Happens: The Chiquitanos (and yes I know these aren’t Chiquitanos!)
11. How Change Happens: The Chiquitanos 3 July 2007: The Chiquitanos win rights to 1 million hectares of traditional lands in Eastern Bolivia
Until 1980 they lived in semi-feudal conditions
How did it happen?
12. Components of Change Context: Economic Crisis in the 1980s, leading to structural adjustment, rising inequality and crisis of legitimacy for traditional parties and trade unions
Institutions: rise of indigenous identity; decentralization and agrarian reform
Agents: New generation of indigenous leaders; ex-miners arrive in Sta Cruz; Evo Morales
Events/ ‘lightbulb moment’: breaking into the mayor’s office; marching to La Paz
13. Dynamics of Change ‘Historical memory’ of colonialism and repression, but also of the 1952 revolucion
Slow legal processes and move into formal politics, but punctuated by political moments and events
Importance of alliances with altiplano Indians
‘Water wars’ and the fall of presidents lead to election of Evo Morales 2005
14. How Change Happens: Winning ‘pond rights’ in India
15. How Change Happens: Winning ‘pond rights’ in India Fish ponds are crucial for 45,000 families in Bundelkhand, a poor region of India
Many fisherfolk are driven from the ponds
After a long process of organization, today over 100 ponds are controlled by the fisherfolk
How did it happen?
16. Components of Change Context: Technology (new varieties of fish and ‘seeding’ the ponds) raise profits and lead to mass expulsions of fisherfolk by landowners
Institutions: Protests win partial support from the state government for cooperativization – triggers mass mobilization
Events: Dirty tricks and some violence are break points
Agents: Local NGOs facilitate contacts with police and politicians
17. Tikamgarh: Dynamics and Politics Slow accumulation of political and social mobilization, punctuated by moments of protest and conflict
Violence over a particular pond became a ‘lightbulb moment’
Changes to state laws were key
Astonishing decision by local police chief to implement the law!
NGO allies contributed advice and links to ‘decision makers’
18. Conclusions: Some problems with current thinking on change Linear model of cause and effect (logframe world) of limited use (Planners v Searchers)
Reformism without politics or history often goes wrong (eg bypassing state, ‘just do something’ syndrome)
We fail to grasp or respond to the impact of shocks as generators of sudden change
Underestimate limitations imposed by context
Reject (rather than understand/engage with) technology
Too little attention to relationships
20. More Information … From Poverty to Power www.fp2p.org
IDS studies of change http://www.ids.ac.uk/go/citizens
Roman Krznaric, ‘How Change Happens’, Oxfam (2007)
Duncan’s Blog www.oxfamblogs.org/fp2p/
Need URL for IDSNeed URL for IDS
21. How Change Happens: Oxfam’s Strategic Planning Approach Development Studies Association
November 2008 55 strategies55 strategies
22. Oxfam’s National Change Strategies Why? Good context and change analysis required to achieve programme quality
What? 55 Strategic change documents for Oxfam’s work over next 3 to 5 years addressing:
What is the change we want to see?
How do we think that change will happen?
What is Oxfam’s contribution?
1. Purpose
A strong context and change analysis is a key component to achieving programme quality. By fully assessing our external environment in relation to our internal capability and global strategy, a context analysis should help us to make hard choices on how we focus our resources (time & money), and how we define our role and approach, and how we ensure that Oxfam is engaging with the right partners. Alignment; effective use of resources across global, regional, national and local levels
Oxfam’s global strategy, the regional vision, and the country programmes/project
· answers the following questions:
o
1. Purpose
A strong context and change analysis is a key component to achieving programme quality. By fully assessing our external environment in relation to our internal capability and global strategy, a context analysis should help us to make hard choices on how we focus our resources (time & money), and how we define our role and approach, and how we ensure that Oxfam is engaging with the right partners. Alignment; effective use of resources across global, regional, national and local levels
Oxfam’s global strategy, the regional vision, and the country programmes/project
· answers the following questions:
o
23. What do they cover? Analysis of the nature of poverty and suffering
Analysis of the political context
Oxfam’s capability
Strategic proposition for Oxfam
Requires: stakeholder consultations
change analysis
gender and inequality analysis
vulnerability and risk analysis
1a) Analysis of the nature of poverty and suffering in the country
i. The face of poverty: who (gender, ethnicity, age, HIV prevalence), where (geography, seasonality), nature of poverty and inequality
ii. Key drivers of poverty & inequality (political, social, economic…)
iii. Key drivers of vulnerability & risk (natural, conflict…)
b) Analysis of the political context in the country
i. Government strategies for poverty reduction and disaster risk reduction.
ii. Strategies and scale of response by key actors (multilaterals, DFID, private sector, other major national and international NGOs/networks) in relation to poverty reduction
iii. What are the key change processes that have a potential to significantly reduce poverty, inequality and risk?
c) Oxfams capability
i. SWOT on Oxfam’s current and future potential
ii. Oxfam’s regional and global strategies/priorities that relate particularly to that country
iii. OI agreements and priorities in that country
iv. SWOT on Oxfam’s current portfolio and relationships with partners[1]
d) Strategic proposition
i. Priority changes that need to happen to impact on poverty and where Oxfam can have the most impact (this should be limited to 3-4 main areas of focus based on a judgement of key external challenges and internal capabilities/opportunities)
ii. How we think these changes will happen (our change theory)
iii. What is Oxfam’s contribution (our programme focus and role given all of the above)
iv. What are the key relationships & partnerships we need to develop to deliver these changes?
e) Vision (optional)
i. What we hope to see for that country in 10 years
What we want Oxfam to look, feel, act like over the coming 5-10 years [1] This analysis will support future work on implementing Oxfam’s new Partnership Policy which will be presented for approval by Council in July 2007.
i. Stakeholder interviews: teams must seek out feed-back from internal and external stakeholders on their analysis. These interviews should include contacts outside our immediate partners and allies (eg academics, government departments, private sector, media, other Oxfam departments) and direct engagement with people living in poverty. For consultation with people living in poverty, this can be done through consultations with existing “beneficiaries”, or teams may explore approaches to immersion and consultation in diverse poverty contexts to bring in new perspectives. (For information on types of immersion, see IDS Bulletin, Issue 22, July 2004).
ii. Change analysis: Teams should conduct a change analysis at both the country level (what do we think are the processes that are likely to lead to national level change towards poverty reduction?) and at the programme level (what are the processes that are likely to lead to change within, for example, primary education, gender relations, vulnerable livelihoods?). Several tools will be made available on the Oxfam intranet Programme pages (Programme Cycle Management).
iii. Gender & Inequalities Analysis: to ensure our strategies reflect gender differences in both the nature of poverty, as well as the opportunities for change, and to capture the inequality issues in that country, including inequalities relating to HIV.
iv. Vulnerability Analysis: to ensure our analysis considers the major areas of risk of major disaster, displacement, or disruption of coping mechanisms (connect to OI contingency plan).
Risk analysis: drawing on the above analysis teams should identify the main risks to achieving the change we want to see and how will we manage both the external and internal risks
1a) Analysis of the nature of poverty and suffering in the country
i. The face of poverty: who (gender, ethnicity, age, HIV prevalence), where (geography, seasonality), nature of poverty and inequality
ii. Key drivers of poverty & inequality (political, social, economic…)
iii. Key drivers of vulnerability & risk (natural, conflict…)
b) Analysis of the political context in the country
i. Government strategies for poverty reduction and disaster risk reduction.
ii. Strategies and scale of response by key actors (multilaterals, DFID, private sector, other major national and international NGOs/networks) in relation to poverty reduction
iii. What are the key change processes that have a potential to significantly reduce poverty, inequality and risk?
c) Oxfams capability
i. SWOT on Oxfam’s current and future potential
ii. Oxfam’s regional and global strategies/priorities that relate particularly to that country
iii. OI agreements and priorities in that country
iv. SWOT on Oxfam’s current portfolio and relationships with partners[1]
d) Strategic proposition
i. Priority changes that need to happen to impact on poverty and where Oxfam can have the most impact (this should be limited to 3-4 main areas of focus based on a judgement of key external challenges and internal capabilities/opportunities)
ii. How we think these changes will happen (our change theory)
iii. What is Oxfam’s contribution (our programme focus and role given all of the above)
iv. What are the key relationships & partnerships we need to develop to deliver these changes?
e) Vision (optional)
i. What we hope to see for that country in 10 years
What we want Oxfam to look, feel, act like over the coming 5-10 years [1] This analysis will support future work on implementing Oxfam’s new Partnership Policy which will be presented for approval by Council in July 2007.
i. Stakeholder interviews: teams must seek out feed-back from internal and external stakeholders on their analysis. These interviews should include contacts outside our immediate partners and allies (eg academics, government departments, private sector, media, other Oxfam departments) and direct engagement with people living in poverty. For consultation with people living in poverty, this can be done through consultations with existing “beneficiaries”, or teams may explore approaches to immersion and consultation in diverse poverty contexts to bring in new perspectives. (For information on types of immersion, see IDS Bulletin, Issue 22, July 2004).
ii. Change analysis: Teams should conduct a change analysis at both the country level (what do we think are the processes that are likely to lead to national level change towards poverty reduction?) and at the programme level (what are the processes that are likely to lead to change within, for example, primary education, gender relations, vulnerable livelihoods?). Several tools will be made available on the Oxfam intranet Programme pages (Programme Cycle Management).
iii. Gender & Inequalities Analysis: to ensure our strategies reflect gender differences in both the nature of poverty, as well as the opportunities for change, and to capture the inequality issues in that country, including inequalities relating to HIV.
iv. Vulnerability Analysis: to ensure our analysis considers the major areas of risk of major disaster, displacement, or disruption of coping mechanisms (connect to OI contingency plan).
Risk analysis: drawing on the above analysis teams should identify the main risks to achieving the change we want to see and how will we manage both the external and internal risks
24. What they say Shift from delivery to influencing
Key role of the State – national level advocacy to lever change at scale
Rising inequality:
gender
Social group (ethnicity, caste)
Economic (newer areas of land and tax)
Key themes: essential services, chronic vulnerability/resilience, private sector, women’s leadership Models rooted innational contexts - increased national advocacy to ensure State delivers as duty bearer take the case of Vietnam where poverty has fallen 58% in 1993 to 16% in 2006 with the gini coefficient barely shifting – we have partnered with the Govt of Vietnam : should do so more in other countries
Grassroots programming will occur but recalibrate or shift of balance to influencing – to gain more leverage
Increasing importance put on role of State – social forces in dispute over type of state (Peru), poverty and insecuirty inevitable without a trustworthy state (Iraq); alignment of policies and practices to the poor essential in Tanzania; better governance (Nigeria) = Oxfam with partners as change agents – knowledge networks relationships and strategic approach – requires national advocacy
Diverse forms of advocacy – not always media, pop mob, but always good research and analysis; partners in civil society but also sometimes govt (EPAs, Vietnam, Palestine, Liberia)Models rooted innational contexts - increased national advocacy to ensure State delivers as duty bearer take the case of Vietnam where poverty has fallen 58% in 1993 to 16% in 2006 with the gini coefficient barely shifting – we have partnered with the Govt of Vietnam : should do so more in other countries
Grassroots programming will occur but recalibrate or shift of balance to influencing – to gain more leverage
Increasing importance put on role of State – social forces in dispute over type of state (Peru), poverty and insecuirty inevitable without a trustworthy state (Iraq); alignment of policies and practices to the poor essential in Tanzania; better governance (Nigeria) = Oxfam with partners as change agents – knowledge networks relationships and strategic approach – requires national advocacy
Diverse forms of advocacy – not always media, pop mob, but always good research and analysis; partners in civil society but also sometimes govt (EPAs, Vietnam, Palestine, Liberia)
25. Brazil Analysis and Role Drivers of poverty and inequality:
perpetuation of exclusion and social inequality, violence and systematic extraction of the natural wealth
social and spatial segregation in cities
conservative modernisation – informal labour market
regressive tax system
agribusiness growth without agrarian reform
Oxfam as :
a change agent with CSOs/social movements
innovative learning organisation . More than half of those in work (around 45 million workers) do not have any labour rights (such as unemployment benefit, cover for accidents at work, paid holidays, an end-of-year bonus, maternity or paternity leave, child benefit, retirement or pensions).
a regressive tax system, which principally taxes consumption and lower incomes, thereby lightening the tax burden for big business. The tax levied on the richest members of society amounted to 26% of household income while the percentage for the poorest workers, is practically double this, at 49%. This gap appears to be widening over time.
Urban Equality (OGB Intervention)
Poverty in Brazil has a colour and address: it is black, urban and concentrated in the Northeast. And it is in many urban settlements where there is a vibrant dispute regarding power relations that marginalise and exclude women and men.
Building on 20 years of pioneer urban work, 10 years of innovative work on sustainability of organisations, a solid experience of addressing gender power relations and now taking on board the issue of race, Oxfam GB aims to contribute to change processes that look to revert this situation of exclusion in the urban milieu. The programme will be executed by Oxfam GB out of Recife.
Economic Justice (OI joint intervention)
Brazil is a country of great wealth, concentrated in the hands of a few and therefore economic injustice is strikingly visible. There is a strong dispute in the country through power relations, which define the priorities and the options to be taken by the government in relation to the development options to be followed.
The intervention in Economic Justice has its roots in the successful joint experience of Make Trade Fair Campaign initiated in 2002, characterized by joint work with civil society organisations and social movements, especially in strengthening their capacity to address issues that were in the past reserved to the private sector.
With the intervention of Economic Justice, which includes trade and regional integration, agriculture model and rural development, biofuels and climate change, Oxfam looks to contribute to change processes, which can revert the situation of concentration of wealth.
1. A change agent that works with others to bring about changes in society that lead to less inequality. In doing so Oxfam plays a variety of roles, in particular that of a catalyst and facilitator of dialogues among key actors that are having an impact on reducing inequalities and overcoming poverty;
A learning organization that capitalizes and shares learning and best practices related to the impact we expect to have in the change processes we will work on in the coming 5 years, i.e., livelihoods of men and women in changing rural world, trade and integration, environment and climate change, active citizenship and governance, inequality in urban settings, improvement of women and afro Brazilian’s rights . More than half of those in work (around 45 million workers) do not have any labour rights (such as unemployment benefit, cover for accidents at work, paid holidays, an end-of-year bonus, maternity or paternity leave, child benefit, retirement or pensions).
a regressive tax system, which principally taxes consumption and lower incomes, thereby lightening the tax burden for big business. The tax levied on the richest members of society amounted to 26% of household income while the percentage for the poorest workers, is practically double this, at 49%. This gap appears to be widening over time.
Urban Equality (OGB Intervention)
Poverty in Brazil has a colour and address: it is black, urban and concentrated in the Northeast. And it is in many urban settlements where there is a vibrant dispute regarding power relations that marginalise and exclude women and men.
Building on 20 years of pioneer urban work, 10 years of innovative work on sustainability of organisations, a solid experience of addressing gender power relations and now taking on board the issue of race, Oxfam GB aims to contribute to change processes that look to revert this situation of exclusion in the urban milieu. The programme will be executed by Oxfam GB out of Recife.
Economic Justice (OI joint intervention)
Brazil is a country of great wealth, concentrated in the hands of a few and therefore economic injustice is strikingly visible. There is a strong dispute in the country through power relations, which define the priorities and the options to be taken by the government in relation to the development options to be followed.
The intervention in Economic Justice has its roots in the successful joint experience of Make Trade Fair Campaign initiated in 2002, characterized by joint work with civil society organisations and social movements, especially in strengthening their capacity to address issues that were in the past reserved to the private sector.
With the intervention of Economic Justice, which includes trade and regional integration, agriculture model and rural development, biofuels and climate change, Oxfam looks to contribute to change processes, which can revert the situation of concentration of wealth.
1. A change agent that works with others to bring about changes in society that lead to less inequality. In doing so Oxfam plays a variety of roles, in particular that of a catalyst and facilitator of dialogues among key actors that are having an impact on reducing inequalities and overcoming poverty;
A learning organization that capitalizes and shares learning and best practices related to the impact we expect to have in the change processes we will work on in the coming 5 years, i.e., livelihoods of men and women in changing rural world, trade and integration, environment and climate change, active citizenship and governance, inequality in urban settings, improvement of women and afro Brazilian’s rights
26. Brazil Change Strategy Change Proposition:
Influence societal processes and power relations to guarantee redistribution and promote economic and social justice
Urban equality programme – reverse exclusion of urban black women and men
Economic Justice programme - reverse the concentration of wealth through support to trade and regional integration, agriculture and rural development, biofuels and climate change
27. Kenya analysis Rising economic and political inequality (exclusion from decision making) especially for women, pastoralists, urban poor, young and people living with AIDS
Increasing democratic space, free media and access to information
Devolution of development funds
Vibrant civil society and private sectors
marginalised and as such, consistently excluded from decision-making either within the home and communities, and / or in political processes. These groups include women, pastoralists, the urban poor, young people and people living with AIDS. Our analysis shows that the institutions of government have both the responsibility and the potential to transform the lives of marginalised groups.
Secondly, Kenya’s recent economic growth is an important part of the analysis. Many sectors of the economy have rebounded in the past three years and some private sector innovations have had a significant and positive impact on the poorer members of society. However, the political crisis has already had significant impacts on major sectors including tourism, horticulture and construction. Crucially, the benefits of economic growth have not reached millions of chronically poor people, particularly in poor urban settlements and the arid and semi-arid lands. Overall inequality has continued to increase, and inequality in access to political decision-making and resources is widely understood by analysts to be a major factor behind the social unrest.
Thirdly, using recent increases in democratic space within the country are an important part of our strategy. Notwithstanding periodic setbacks and challenges, the trend in local newspapers, FM radio stations, blogs and other media is towards greater openness and debate, and greater accessibility in rural areas. This has not as yet, led to the significant improvements in governance that might have been expected with a more open media. However it is recognised that a proactive and responsible media is an essential driver that can contribute towards changing the lives of the poorest citizens in Kenya. .
Finally government’s policy of devolving the management of several key development funds, and reducing the size of constituencies represents a significant shift in policy
marginalised and as such, consistently excluded from decision-making either within the home and communities, and / or in political processes. These groups include women, pastoralists, the urban poor, young people and people living with AIDS. Our analysis shows that the institutions of government have both the responsibility and the potential to transform the lives of marginalised groups.
Secondly, Kenya’s recent economic growth is an important part of the analysis. Many sectors of the economy have rebounded in the past three years and some private sector innovations have had a significant and positive impact on the poorer members of society. However, the political crisis has already had significant impacts on major sectors including tourism, horticulture and construction. Crucially, the benefits of economic growth have not reached millions of chronically poor people, particularly in poor urban settlements and the arid and semi-arid lands. Overall inequality has continued to increase, and inequality in access to political decision-making and resources is widely understood by analysts to be a major factor behind the social unrest.
Thirdly, using recent increases in democratic space within the country are an important part of our strategy. Notwithstanding periodic setbacks and challenges, the trend in local newspapers, FM radio stations, blogs and other media is towards greater openness and debate, and greater accessibility in rural areas. This has not as yet, led to the significant improvements in governance that might have been expected with a more open media. However it is recognised that a proactive and responsible media is an essential driver that can contribute towards changing the lives of the poorest citizens in Kenya. .
Finally government’s policy of devolving the management of several key development funds, and reducing the size of constituencies represents a significant shift in policy
28. Kenya Change Strategy Proposition:
Work with government, private sector, civil society and communities to significantly reduce poverty, inequity and vulnerability in Kenya.
Pastoralist programme to address poverty and marginalisation in ASAL areas
Urban programme to enable urban poor and marginalised realise their rights
BUT
December 2007 riots requires reappraisal of strategy of programme focus
Oxfam will work with pastoralists and other marginalised people in ASAL areas to address the unacceptable and unnecessary depth of poverty. We will do this using an integrated approach to address the causes and effects of their poverty and vulnerability and enable them to realise their rights. Turkana and Wajir will be focal areas of this programme
Oxfam will work with others for the poor and marginalized in an urban context, and develop an integrated programme that will provide a change pathway for the poorest and most marginalized to realize their rights.
Oxfam will work with pastoralists and other marginalised people in ASAL areas to address the unacceptable and unnecessary depth of poverty. We will do this using an integrated approach to address the causes and effects of their poverty and vulnerability and enable them to realise their rights. Turkana and Wajir will be focal areas of this programme
Oxfam will work with others for the poor and marginalized in an urban context, and develop an integrated programme that will provide a change pathway for the poorest and most marginalized to realize their rights.
29. Implications for Oxfam SWOTs show need for skills in research, policy analysis, media, social movements, advocacy and communications
Approach ; support local campaigning to catalyse change
Working more with civil society as partners
30. Results Raising ambition and shift in resources
Maintain significant grassroots programmes to innovate and demonstrate
Greater engagement with the State
Some advocacy only programmes (Ghana)
14 additional advocacy staff in South Asia
Shifting to enable more active citizenship and social movements
Different ways of working – lobbying ASEAN rather than UN for Myanmar access
Grassroots programmes needed for legitimacy
Philippines, LAC)
Grassroots programmes needed for legitimacy
Philippines, LAC)
31. Challenges Turning ambition into reality
Being flexible and agile
More policy and advocacy capability
More to do on inequality
Addressing chronic vulnerability requires integrated approach to humanitarian and long term programming
Balancing and complementing global and national roles
