The business environment in emerging economies
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The business environment in emerging economies Prof. Olivier Cadot Spring Semester, 2014. Seminar objectives. Get the big picture How is the world economy evolving? What is the role of emerging economies Basic differences between industrial and emerging economies

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The business environment in emerging economies

Prof. Olivier Cadot

Spring Semester, 2014


Seminar objectives

  • Get the big picture

  • How is the world economy evolving? What is the role of emerging economies

  • Basic differences between industrial and emerging economies

  • What do we know about economic development? Understand to anticipate

  • Learn to analyze data

  • Do and present descriptive statistics

  • Do and interpret basic regression analysis

  • Understand indices

  • Learn to present and discuss your ideas

  • Select what you communicate

  • Give a «narrative» to your analysis

  • Provide constructive comments to others


Seminar evaluation

  • Hands-on data analysis exercise

  • Get data

  • Organize it (cleaning, formatting)

  • Analyse it (descriptive statistics, econometric analysis)

  • Present your results

  • Group project

  • Topic to be agreed with instructor/assistant

  • Original contribution (not just review of the literature)

  • Data analysis

  • Discussion of group projects

  • Optional: In-class case presentation and discussion


Seminar Format and schedule

Six introductory sessions

February 20, 27; March 6, 13, 20, 27

Group work, phase I (topic determination & data gathering): April

Group meetings with professor/asssistant, round I: Week of April 15

Group work, phase II (analysis and preliminary draft): May

Group meetings with professor/assistant, round II: Week of May 12

Assignment of «discussant» roles

Presentations and discussion: May 15, 22, 29


Suggestive list of paper topics

  • Governance in extractive industries

  • Country competitiveness analysis

  • Measuring «logistics friendliness»

  • Export entrepreneurship

  • Statistical analysis of competitiveness and other indices

  • Public-private partnerships in public utilities, with a focus on water privatization

  • Free-trade agreements

  • Product standards, technical regulations, and competition

  • NGO management & accountability

  • Project impact analysis



Trade grows faster than production

Trade growth vs. GDP growth

Openness ratio


Global trade patterns

628

628

242

375

75

250

55

263

263

427

105

1’395

Source: Adapted from The Economist, A Survey of Logistics, 17 June 2006, p. 5.

Million US dollars


Shifting patterns, shifting center of gravity

2015

Source: JM Grether and N Mathys (2006), “Is the World’s Economic Center of Gravity Already in Asia?”, mimeo, Univ. of Lausanne


The decline of the rich countries

Share of high-income countries in trade in goods

In current USD

At PPP


The rise of Asian players

Service exports: India, 1975-2010


The internationalization of companies

Inward and outward FDI flows

Inward

Outward


Differences in values (i): Hofstede (1980)

Individualism

Power acceptance

“Masculinity” (competitiveness)

Risk aversion

Source : http://www.clearlycultural.com/geert-hofstede-cultural-dimensions/uncertainty-avoidance-index/


Differences in values (ii): A cultural distance index

Intra-country fragmentation index

Inter-country distance index (Thoenig et al. 2009)




The transportation revolution

Share of U.S. trade shipped by air, 1965-2010

Source: Feyrer (2009)



Globalization: stylized facts

The developing world’s debt burden


Summing up

Income distribution over time: World, 1970-80

Source: Sala i Martin 2002


Summing up

Income distribution over time: World 1990-98

Source: Sala i Martin 2002


Summing up

Poverty: tide turning?

Headcount of individuals living on less than $1 a day worldwide

million individuals

Source: World Bank (2002),"Globalization, Growth and Poverty:Building an Inclusive World Economy"


Summing up

  • What is globalization?

  • Rising openness to trade/reduced trade protection

    • Goods

    • Services

  • Rising mobility of capital/internationalization of firms

    • FDI

    • Speculative flows

  • Reduced global incidence of poverty

    • Uneven across continents

    • Halted by global financial crisis


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