PROFESSOR PAUL J. SULLIVAN NDU GEORGETOWN EAST WEST INSTITUTE

1. UNITED NATIONS CONFERENCE ON TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT (UNCTAD)11TH  AFRICAN OIL AND GAS, TRADE AND FINANCECONFERENCE & EXHIBITION May 25, 2007, NAIROBI, KENYA All opinions expressed are those of Prof. Sullivan alone, not any other person or organization NOT AN OFFICIAL UNCTAD RECORD PROFESSOR PAUL J. SULLIVAN NDU GEORGETOWN EAST WEST INSTITUTE

2. North: oil and gas South: coal and nuclear The center: biomass and Hydro (under potential) Potential vs. actual in Energy, especially hydro And alternatives like solar, wind Tidal, wave, biofuels, geothermal And more are seriously Underutilized. Potential vs. actual in Economic development and Human development? You need a systematic, Continent-wide approach, but Need to know the on-the-ground Data and realities. Mark Tomlinson, WB, Regional Integration, 2006

3. There is a huge variety of energy systems in Africa. One policy type or size does not fit all. It is a massive continent, with a huge variety of natural resources that are not evenly distributed. This is normally said of the coal, oil and gas, but is also true of watershed sources for hydropower, wind power resources, solar resources, geothermal resources, tidal sources and more. A major problem is connecting energy sources with energy needs and development (geography, war, international tensions, technical issues, finance)

4. University of Delaware, Department of Marine Studies

5. AAAS.ORG ONLY 7% OF AFRICA’S HYDROPOWER CAPACITY IS USED – IF THAT….. OXFAM ETAL, “MEETING AFRICA’S ENERGY NEEDS: THE COSTS AND BENEFITS OF HYDROPOWER”, 2006

6. Source: Geothermal Education Office, 2006 Geothermal could be a huge source of clean fuel.

7. Solar radiation map of the world (yearly Average) Source: DLR, 2004 Solar power, like hydro and wind, is underutilized, Especially compared to deforesting biomass.

9. A lot of energy leaves Africa.

11. But these conglomerated statistics from the IEA • hardly tell the whole story. • If we take a look at some countries in a more disaggregated way we see that: • Most of the coal use is in South Africa. • 2. Most oil and gas is in North and west Africa; very little is found elsewhere. • 3. Over time some countries, like The Sudan, have seen drastic changes in energy production toward Oil. So there may be hope for many others?

12. 4. Many countries you would expect to have oil and gas as a large part of their energy supply still rely on biomass for most of their supplies: like Nigeria and Angola 5. Some Countries that could have massive hydro-power potential use mostly biomass: DRC and The Sudan, for examples. 6. All of the nuclear in in South Africa: with some issues. (Recent blackout in Cape Town?) 7. Some post-conflict states, like Mozambique, have shown great progress on some energy issues,yet still rely massively on biomass.

13. 8. Some countries, like Kenya, are putting efforts toward geothermal and other alternatives more than many other countries in Africa. Ghana and others Are working on biofuels. 9. There is some switching going on in countries like Egypt from oil to gas, and toward less reliance on hydro over the years. 10. There will be a serious switch into gas as the massive flaring on the continent, especially in Nigeria, is capped and piped via joint pipelines. 11. Hydropower is uneven in reliance at best as seen in Togo and Ghana, for examples. Others, like Cameroon and Ethiopia, have more reliable hydro. 12. Some are blessed with oil and hydropower, like Angola and Gabon.

14. 13. Some are hugely reliant on outside oil for electricity, like Benin, Eritrea, and Senegal. 14. Others rely on their own natural gas for most Of their electricity, like Algeria. 15. Others rely on their own oil, like Libya. 16. Others rely on other countries’ gas for electricity, like Tunisia. 17. Outside of electricity production most non-oil states rely tremendously on deforesting and environmentally damaging biomass use.

15. LEVELS OF ENERGY SECURITY: Household Community Region Country International TIME SPANSE: Short run, medium run, and long run MULTIDIMENSIONAL ISSUE: Space, time, culture and other dimensions

16. Energy end-use security Fuel source security Fuel conversion security Energy transmission and distribution security Energy infrastructure security (pipelines, refineries Power lines, transformers, etc.) Energy technology security/ ideas security Energy finance security Energy policy security Energy-environment security

17. Human energy security – under-represented in the debate Health, well-being, education, training, and other measures and realities of human capital Human capital as a leverage for human energy Which is, in turn, leveraged by non-human energy Non-human energy overlaps with and acts in synergy, sometimes, with human energy Livestock and other animal energy as a further “analogy” Human energy, non-human energy, and human security?

18. Feinstein, World Bank, 2002 Similar relations have been found with the HDI. Maybe we can now look at this holistically as a synergistic, leveraging process that requires a security element?

19. Source: UNDP, “Energizing the Millennium Development Goals”, 2006

20. UNDP, “ENERGIZING THE MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS”, 2006

21. We don’t need social experiments. We need practical projects with real results. Sometimes the practical things work best, and at small scale levels?

22. Big does not necessarily mean centralized or “dirty” energy, but we need to see the tradeoffs from all types of sources.

23. PROPER PORTFOLIOS OF ENERGY SYSTEMS WITHIN SYSTEMS DEVELOPMENT PROPER RISK-RETURN CALCULATIONS AT MANY END-USE, GEOGRAPHIC AND TIME SPANSES GENERALIZED, HOLISTIC COST/BENEFIT ANALYSES REQUIRED PEOPLE NEED TO BE PART OF THE DECISIONS, AND THE MAJOR BENEFICIARIES OF THE PROJECTS NEEDS A LONG RUN VIEW OF OVERALL DEVELOPMENT OF AFRICA EVEN AFTER THE MDGS ARE HISTORY….