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Met office seasonal forecasting for winter 2010 11
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Met Office seasonal forecasting for winter 2010-11. Jeff Knight (with thanks to many colleagues). The main event: December. December 2010. Snow at Land’s End. Courtesy of Mike Kendon (NCIC). Public execution of Charles 1 st 1649 (only 10 years before series starts). December 2010.

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Met Office seasonal forecasting for winter 2010-11

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Met office seasonal forecasting for winter 2010 11

Met Office seasonal forecasting for winter 2010-11

Jeff Knight (with thanks to many colleagues)

The main event december

The main event: December

December 2010


Snow at

Land’s End

Courtesy of Mike Kendon (NCIC)

December 2010 central england temperature series

Public execution of Charles 1st 1649 (only 10 years before series starts)

December 2010

The coldest December since 1890

December 2010: Central England Temperature series

3 voyages of Captain Cook 1768 - 1779

Queen Victoria’s coronation 1838

World War 11914-1918

The second coldest December in a series from 1659

Courtesy of Mike Kendon (NCIC)

Uk temperatures recent winters

UK Temperatures: recent winters

Met office seasonal forecasting for winter 2010 11

2009-10 and 2010-11

Christmas Eve 2010 Satellite Receiving Station, Dundee University

1150 GMT 7 January 2010Photo: NASA/GSFC, MODIS Rapid Response.

Met office winter forecast 2010 11

Met Office Winter Forecast 2010-11

Djf met office seasonal forecast for uk government

DJF Met Office Seasonal Forecastfor UK Government

Outlook for December 2010 – February 2011

For the period December 2010-February 2011, there is a 25% chance of mild conditions, a 30% chance of near-average and a 45% chance of cold conditions over northern Europe.

For precipitation, there is a 25% chance of wet conditions, a 35% chance of near-average and a 40% chance of dry conditions over northern Europe.

Glosea4 november ensemble

GloSea4 ‘November’ ensemble


GloSea4 L85

Temperature terciles from nov

Temperature terciles from Nov

L85 GloSea (1996-2009 climate)

Precipitation terciles from nov 1996 2009 climatology

Precipitation terciles from Nov(1996-2009 climatology)

L85 GloSea (1996-2009 Climate)

Nino3 4 plumes glosea4 ec eurosip

Nino3.4 plumes: GloSea4-EC-EUROSIP

Charts courtesy of ECMWF

Cluster analysis fereday et al 2008 j climate

Cluster analysisFereday et al. (2008), J. Climate

  • 6 two month seasons, 10 clusters per season

  • North Atlantic / Europe region

  • Clusters from observed 1850-2003 daily mean MSLP dataset

  • For 2004 onwards use NCEP reanalysis

  • Remove seasonal mean from NCEP MSLP

  • Assign each field to closest cluster

Nd 2010 cluster frequencies

ND 2010 cluster frequencies

Highest number of days for ~100 and ~50 years respectively

Nd 2010 clusters

ND 2010 Clusters

Oct nov north atlantic sst

Oct-Nov North Atlantic SST

October 2011

14-21 Nov 2011

North atlantic sub surface temperature

North Atlantic Sub-Surface temperature



Rodwell and Folland (2002), Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc.

Quasi biennial oscillation

Quasi-Biennial Oscillation

W phase of QBO → stronger polar vortex, less chance of a stratospheric warming event

So perhaps switch to zonal at end of winter?

This is also the signal from La Niña

Canonical jf la ni a clusters

‘Canonical’ JF La Niña clusters

Later forecasts

Later Forecasts

Jfm fma from preceding month

JFM, FMA from preceding month






Jf 2011 cluster frequencies

JF 2011 cluster frequencies

Jf 2011 clusters

JF 2011 Clusters



La ni a teleconnections

La Niña Teleconnections

  • During La Niña the rainfall that normally falls out over the Pacific shifts west

Global precipitation

Global precipitation





  • GloSea4 did a reasonable job in predicting the likelihood of a cold winter

  • In later forecasts, however, it wanted to retain the cold for too long

  • Consistency with EuroSIP and other models

  • Other factors such as La Niña, Atlantic SSTs and the QBO were considered alongside models

  • Potential additional influences were the continuing low solar activity (Ineson et al., 2011), low sea-ice, ...



For various long-range forecasts including decadal global temperature forecasts and seasonal tropical storm forecasts:

For the seasonal probability maps, ENSO forecast and skill scores:

Questions and answers

Questions and answers



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