Do Campaigns Matter?. Campaigns matter! (Why? Always?). Campaigns don’t matter at all! (Why not? Never?). Make a list!. What determines election outcomes?. Long term voter predispositions. Funnel of Causality. Long term, stable partisan and policy predispositions
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Long term, stable partisan and policy predispositions
Current policy preferences and perceptions of current conditions
Retrospective evaluations of the president concerning results
Impressions of the candidates’ personal qualities
Prospective evaluations of the candidates and parties