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Ag Outlook for 2011

Ag Outlook for 2011. Iowa Chapter of ASFMRA and RLI Annual Meeting Ames, Iowa Feb. 3, 2011 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC. Source: USDA.

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Ag Outlook for 2011

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  1. Ag Outlook for 2011 Iowa Chapter of ASFMRA and RLI Annual Meeting Ames, Iowa Feb. 3, 2011 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

  2. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

  3. Source: USDA

  4. Cattle and Hog Prices Source: CME Group

  5. Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

  6. Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

  7. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

  8. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

  9. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

  10. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

  11. Cattle/Beef Prices Source: USDA

  12. Hog/Pork Prices Source: USDA

  13. Source: USDA

  14. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

  15. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

  16. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

  17. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

  18. Source: USDA

  19. Class III Milk Prices Source: CME Group

  20. Thoughts for 2011 and Beyond • Continued economic recovery is a major key for livestock prices • Meat demand is recovering • Meat supplies tightened up with smaller herds/flocks • Feed costs have continued to march higher • The combination implies livestock expansion will take awhile • Poultry in 2010, Hogs maybe in 2012, and Cattle after that

  21. U.S. Corn Supply and Use Source: USDA

  22. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Source: USDA

  23. World Corn Production Source: USDA

  24. World Soybean Production Source: USDA

  25. Corn Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

  26. Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA, FAS

  27. Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

  28. Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA, FAS

  29. Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)

  30. Ethanol Margins Source: ISU, CARD

  31. Ethanol Blending Advantage

  32. Fuel Prices

  33. Projected 2010 Season-Average Corn Price

  34. Projected 2010 Season-Average Soy Price

  35. Projected 2011 Season-Average Corn Price

  36. Projected 2011 Season-Average Soy Price

  37. Corn

  38. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

  39. Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

  40. Principal Crop Area Source: USDA-NASS

  41. States with Room to Grow

  42. New Crop Futures Price Movements

  43. Thoughts for 2011 and Beyond • General economic conditions • Continued economic recovery is a major key for crop prices • Chinese inflation, European credit tightening, and Middle Eastern unrest have hit the markets • Long-term oil price remain in the $90 range • Supply/demand concerns • South America: La Niña impacts • Will supply be able to keep pace with demand? • 2010/11: USDA: Corn $5.30, Soy $11.70 Futures (as of 2/2/2011): Corn $5.48, Soy $12.25 • 2011/12: Futures (as of 2/2/2011): Corn $5.83, Soy $13.16

  44. Thank you for your time!Any questions?My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

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