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WiVi Central Coast 2014 State of the Winegrape Industry Nat DiBuduo Allied Grape Growers March 19, 2014

WiVi Central Coast 2014 State of the Winegrape Industry Nat DiBuduo Allied Grape Growers March 19, 2014.

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WiVi Central Coast 2014 State of the Winegrape Industry Nat DiBuduo Allied Grape Growers March 19, 2014

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  1. WiVi Central Coast 2014 State of the Winegrape Industry Nat DiBuduo Allied Grape Growers March 19, 2014

  2. Today’s presentation utilizes information obtained via Allied Grape Growers’ (AGG) annual Nursery Survey combined with critical evaluation of reports and data made available by the State of California. Wine shipment data is courtesy of the Gomberg Fredrikson Report. AGG’s internal operations data along with numerous pieces of anecdotal evidence was also used in the formulation of conclusions.

  3. Answering Some Key Industry Questions…….

  4. Answering Some Key Industry Questions Question #1: How did the 2013 crush size up?

  5. Answering Some Key Industry Questions How did the 2013 crush size up? California Production

  6. Answering Some Key Industry Questions How did the 2013 crush size up? A regional look at production, stated in tons crushed

  7. Answering Some Key Industry Questions How did the 2013 crush size up? A look at average yields statewide

  8. Answering Some Key Industry Questions Question #1: How did the 2013 crush size up? Answer: Clearly above recent averages, both in total production and in per acre yields

  9. Answering Some Key Industry Questions Question #2: What are the Central Coast grape pricing trends?

  10. Answering Some Key Industry Questions What are the Central Coast grape pricing trends?

  11. Answering Some Key Industry Questions What are the Central Coast grape pricing trends?

  12. Answering Some Key Industry Questions Question #2: What are the Central Coast grape pricing trends? Answer: Mostly positive in recent years, with minor categorical weaknesses

  13. Answering Some Key Industry Questions Question #3: How many acres do we really have?

  14. Answering Some Key Industry Questions How many acres do we really have? Notes: 2013 state data will be released in April of 2014. DPR data may include raisin variety acreage classified as wine.

  15. Answering Some Key Industry Questions How many acres do we really have?

  16. Answering Some Key Industry Questions Question #3: How many acres do we really have? Answer: Much more than the state has historically reported or estimated

  17. Answering Some Key Industry Questions Question #4: Are Central Coast acres under-reported?

  18. Answering Some Key Industry Questions Are Central Coast acres under-reported? Varieties that are under-reported in the Central Coast (for > 50 acres) • District 6 • Albarino • Gewurztraminer • GrunerVeltliner • Malbec • District 7 • Primitivo

  19. Answering Some Key Industry Questions Are Central Coast acres under-reported? Following analysis of Central Coast Acreage and Production, it was concluded that the combined District 7 & 8 reported bearing acreage is only off of actual by less than 1%.

  20. Answering Some Key Industry Questions Are Central Coast acres under-reported? An estimate of non-bearing acres from 2012

  21. Answering Some Key Industry Questions Question #4: Are Central Coast bearing acres under-reported? Answer: No, the Grape Acreage Report is capturing nearly all bearing winegrape acres.

  22. Answering Some Key Industry Questions Question #5: What are growers planting today? (other than almonds)

  23. Answering Some Key Industry Questions What are growers planting today? 29% White 71% Red Other Reds Include: Grenache Cab Franc Syrah Malbec Tannat Other Whites Include: Gewurztraminer Riesling Viognier Other florals

  24. Answering Some Key Industry Questions Question #5: What are growers planting today? (other than almonds) Answer: Cabernet Sauvignon…. and a few other varieties

  25. Answering Some Key Industry Questions Question #6: What about the drought?

  26. Answering Some Key Industry Questions What about the drought?

  27. Answering Some Key Industry Questions Question #6: What about the drought? Answer: The drought will undoubtedly cause concern and loss for California winegrape growers. Production will likely be negatively impacted.

  28. Answering Some Key Industry Questions Question #7: What are the regional planting trends?

  29. Answering Some Key Industry Questions What are the regional planting trends? A high percentage of the “Value” plantings are in Lodi

  30. Answering Some Key Industry Questions What are the regional planting trends? Varieties charted are Chardonnay, Cabernet Sauvignon, Merlot, Pinot Noir and Zinfandel.

  31. Answering Some Key Industry Questions Question #7: What are the regional planting trends? Answer: Coastal planting of major varietals has increased substantially. Interior planting has shifted north to Lodi.

  32. Answering Some Key Industry Questions Question #8: Are we headed for surplus, balance or shortage?

  33. Answering Some Key Industry Questions Are we headed for surplus, balance or shortage? Average Statewide Yield = 7.29 TPA Assumes no escalation in the current rate of annual vineyard removals……. (<2% per year).

  34. Answering Some Key Industry Questions Are we headed for surplus, balance or shortage? Forecast shows production growth outpacing shipments in the near future

  35. Answering Some Key Industry Questions Are we headed for surplus, balance or shortage? Forecast shows acreage growth beginning to outpace the trendline by 2017.

  36. Answering Some Key Industry Questions Question #8: Are we headed for surplus, balance or shortage? Answer: We are not forecasting a shortage in the foreseeable future

  37. Questions? You may download or view a copy of this presentation at: www.alliedgrapegrowers.org

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