Sept 11 – Gov – Getting Elected

1. Sept 11 – Gov – Getting Elected Agenda: • Notes: Path to the Presidency Homework: • Read pages 318-323 in chapter 9 • Submit Chapter 9 SG by midnight THURSDAY Take out: • Pen/Pencil • Notebook • Ideology Assignment Goals: • Gain understanding of the nomination and election process

3. What does our electoral system suggest about American politics? You Decide: SUPER How is it?

4. Path to the Presidency How you get to be President. . . .

5. Campaign 2008 Timeline • Declaration • Nomination • National Convention • Fall Campaign • Election Day • Meeting of electors • Formal Election • Inauguration Day Nomination Phase to win…delegates to Fall Campaign

6. Nomination Phase: Primaries and Caucuses How the Republicans chose McCain and how the Democrats chose Obama in 2008

7. The Big Picture – Step 1 • Each state holds a primary or caucus between January & June • States who hold their contests early get more media and candidate attention – the rush for states to be earlier in the campaign calendar is called frontloading

8. Campaign 2008 Timeline

9. Why Frontload? • Draws attention • To the states • To the candidates • Disseminates information • From and about candidates • Competition increases public interest

10. The Big Picture – Step 2 • Presidential candidates enter these contests to try to win delegates • Political parties award delegates to states based largely on their population 97 delegates from WA went to the Democratic Convention in Denver 448delegates from California went to the Democratic Convention in Denver

11. 4,233 delegates were to attend the Denver convention. Half of 4,233 delegates = 2,116.5 delegates. The nominee needed 2,117 delegate votes to win the nomination. The Republican magic number was… The Big Picture – Step 3 • Delegates from the states attend the National Conventions • Democrats • Republicans • Party in power always “bats last” • Delegates vote during roll call and officially select the party’s nominee • You need to win a majority of the delegates to officially become the nominee – this is called the magic number

12. CNN

13. Huckabee Obama McCain McCain Obama Clinton Romney Edwards A Sports Analogy • Each bracket sends only one candidates to the national championship (AKA the General Election on November 2, 2008) vs

14. Name that Politician!

15. What is a Caucus? • Parties have separate caucuses in separate locations • Viewed as “old fashioned” political meetings

16. Caucus Agenda • Discuss politics • Organize for the next election • Select party leaders • Work on the party platform • Delegate selection National Convention State Convention CD Convention Senate- District Caucus Precinct Caucus

17. Caucus Agenda • Hold a presidential preference vote • The percentage of the vote that each candidate gets determines the number of delegates each candidate will have vote for them at the National Convention* At the Democratic Convention 15 of Iowa’s pledged delegates were for Clinton 16 were for Obama 14 were for Edwards *Typically, in a show of unity, the candidates who don’t have enough delegates encourage their supporters to vote for the nominee

20. SHOW BALLOT What is a Primary? • Primaries are just like any other election except • Democrats run against Democrats • Republicans against Republicans

21. Primaries Make it “Fair” • Pre 1960’s – delegates selected by party “bosses” • Delegates were the political elite • Primaries introduced in the early 20th cen. • Caught on early for state gov. and congress nominations • 1968 – DNC Riot in Chicago • McGovern-Fraser Commission • Determined people had basically no control over the nominees • Mandated open delegate selection procedures

23. What is a Primary? • Primaries are considered to be more democratic because many more people participate Both Minnesota & Wisconsin have approximately the same populations….however About 210,000 Democrats voted in Minnesota’s Caucuses About 1.1 million Democrats voted in the Wisconsin Primary

24. Types of Primaries - Open • Anyone can vote • Can get a ballot for any party

26. Types of Primaries - Closed • You have to register with a party to vote in their primary • You have to re-register to change party affiliation • Closed Primaries promotes party loyalty • What happens if you aren’t affiliated? • Typically, registration is closed several weeks before the election.

28. Does my vote matter? • You have indirect influence on who wins the nomination • You aren’t really voting for a candidate in a primary. delegates John McCain Age 18 Voter

29. Nomination Phase: Primaries and Caucuses How the Republicans chose McCain and how the Democrats chose Obama in 2008

30. Iowa Caucus – Jan 3, 2008 • Delegates by % • Closed Caucus 57 45 pledged delegates 12 super delegates

31. New Hampshire PrimaryJan. 8, 2008 • Delegates by % • Open Primary 30 22 pledged delegates 8 super delegates

32. 30th in population 10th most rural 97% white 42nd in population 16th most rural 98% white IA & NH Demographics IA NH What are the political implications?

33. Winner Take All Closed Primary Nevada CaucusJan 19, 2008 34 25 pledged delegates 9 super delegates 20% of Nevada’s population is Latino/Hispanic

34. Winner Take All (by state & Congressional District) Open Primary South Carolina PrimaryJan 26, 2008 54 45 pledged delegates 9 super delegates 30% of population is African-American

35. Obama on the Run

36. Super-Duper/Tsunami/Giga Tuesday – Feb. 5, 2008 1,681 Typically, Super Tuesday allows one of the candidates to gain separation and become the clear front runner and the presumptive nominee. Super Tuesday is also a test of a candidate’s organization and fundraising ability. 1,681 pledged delegates 390 super delegates 22 states + American Samoa

38. The RNC allowed the Republican candidates to campaign but halved their delegates as a punishment. 313 dem delegates+ 55 supers = 0 • Florida and Michigan defied party rules and set their contests before Feb 3rd. • The DNC penalized both states by removing their delegates. • Candidates promised not to campaign in the states, turning them into “beauty contests” • Clinton claimed victory in both contests and fought for the delegates to be seated. • At the end of the primary season, the DNC allowed each delegate to count for ½ a vote.

39. Too close to call… Obama performed very well in caucus states and won many small states. Clinton dominated in large states the democrats needed to win in November. And then there were the super delegates…

40. Some of WA’s Supers (17) Pledged vs. Superdelegates • Democrats have Supers (Republicans have “unpledged delegates”) • “Peer review” process • Ds have 823 Super Delegates • Elected Officials • Party Leaders • DNC Members • Many Super Delegates supported Clinton early in the process then defected to Obama’s campaign in May and June

41. Pledged Delegates over Time

43. Campaign 2008 Timeline • Declaration • Nomination • National Convention • Fall Campaign • Election Day • Meeting of electors • Formal Election • Inauguration Day Nomination Phase to win…delegates to Fall Campaign

44. National Convention • Selection merely a formality • Selection of VP—time to “balance the ticket” • Create party platform • Reconciliation of party squabbles

45. Link to video