African energy f utures
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African Energy F utures. Mafalda Duarte African Development Bank. Outline. Africa Today Global and Africa’s Income I nequality Global and Africa’s Environmental Degradation Additional Challenges due to Climate Change How to Support Transformation What is needed Innovative finance

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African Energy F utures

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African Energy Futures

MafaldaDuarteAfrican Development Bank


Outline

  • Africa Today

  • Global and Africa’s Income Inequality

  • Global and Africa’s Environmental Degradation

  • Additional Challenges due to Climate Change

  • How to Support Transformation

  • What is needed

  • Innovative finance

  • Opportunities in the Post-Rio+20 Landscape


Africa Today:

Continued and robust growth…but mostly driven by commodity prices


Africa Today:

Business climate is improving…but private sector still faces bottlenecks


Africa Today:

Poverty is falling but unequally


Substantial But Uneven Progress

Global Income Inequality

Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators; OECD, DAC Statistics


Africa Today:

Massive infrastructure deficit


Africa Today:

Regional integration and intra-regional trade needs deepening


Global EnvironmentalDegradation

Climate Change

Ocean acidification

Chemical pollution

(not yet quantified)

Stratospheric ozone

depletion

Atmospheric

aerosol loading

(not yet quantified)

?

?

Nitrogen

cycle

(biogeochemical

flow)

Biodiversity loss

Phosphorus

cycle

Global freshwater

use

Change in land use

Source: Rockström et al., Nature (2009)


Additional Challenges

Due to

Climate Change

Pictures: AfDB


Impacts on water resources

  • Warming expected to increase up to 1.4 ° C by 2020; 5.1 ° C by 2080

  • Increase in temperature = greater evapostranspiration; e.g. 1° C warming results 10% reduction in surface runoff (Morocco)

  • Changes in variability - more severe, intense, prolonged droughts and floods

  • Changes in groundwater recharge

  • By 2020, up to 250 million people in Africa are projected to be exposed to increased water stress


Impact on Agriculture

  • Changes in pests, diseases, growing seasons, land-use

  • Temperature-induced crop yield losses of up to 16% per 1° C

  • Overall reductions of up to 22% across 5 crops

  • By 2020, yields from rain-fed agriculture could be 50% less in some countries, affecting food security and exacerbating malnutrition


Impact on Coastal Zone and Marine Resources

African Cities at Risk

  • 19 big cities (1 million +) in LECZ*

  • Mombasa: 17% city below 0.3m

  • Banjul:most below 1m

  • Egypt: 2 million people below 0.5m

  • Abidjan, Lagos at high risk

  • Marine Resources at Risk

  • 22 of 33 coastal countries “highly vulnerable” to CC impacts on fisheries are in Africa


But Opportunities Too


How to SupportTransformation


  • How to Support Transformation

  • Infrastructure development

$30-50 Billion Annual Gap

2% of Lost Annual

GDP Growth

• Improve transport & logistics chains

• Meet rising demand for energy

• Enhance water resources

• Expand broadband telecommunications

• Integrate urban infrastructure


  • How to Support Transformation

  • Regional integration

  • Only 12% of Africa’s Trade is Intra-Regional

  • Hard infrastructure

  • Support soft infrastructure

  • Trade and Customs procedures

  • Movement of labor and capital

  • One stop border posts


  • How to Support Transformation

  • Private sector development

50 million MSMEs

22% Access to Finance

Low productivity

  • Improve investment and business climate

  • Expand access to infrastructure

  • Promote enterprise development

  • Improve access to finance

  • Scale up support to MSMEs


  • How to Support Transformation

  • Governance & accountability

20% live in fragile states

Weak institutions

Poor service delivery

  • Build accountability: public spending, delivery

  • Support anti-corruption initiatives

  • Strengthen debt-management capacity

  • Promote fiscal decentralization

  • Bolster property rights, access to justice

  • Improve natural resource management


  • How to Support Transformation

  • Skills & technology

250 million Africans

between 15 and 24

15 million new job seekers annually

  • Build skills: science, technology, engineering

  • Support women in technical & scientific study

  • Support innovation & entrepreneurship

  • Develop networks of excellence and mentoring programs


What is Needed

Tailored strategies, Policies that promote smart behavior and tackle upfront capital constraints


Innovative Finance

  • Focus on upfront financing:

    • Need for new sources, but also project preparation finance and risk-management schemes

    • Borrowing constraints

    • SMEs and local governments

  • Green finance, but also:

    • Leverage public and IFI resources: engage private banks; Fund-of-funds; buy down interest rates

    • Local public finance

    • Payment for environmental services


Opportunities in the Post-Rio+20 Landscape

  • SDGs and the post-2015 int’l development agenda

    • “Shared prosperity” and the challenge and imperative of integrating sustainability into the poverty-centric MDG framework

  • Natural Capital Accounting (NCA) + WAVES

    • UN Statistical Commission adopted a System for Environmental-Economic Accounts, and 60+ countries embraced NCA at Rio

  • Data, tools and knowledge

    • Clear demand from advanced and developing countries for better information and methods and opportunities to share good (and failed) practices


Targeting and Tailoring


Thank You!!

Mafalda Duarte

[email protected]


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