African energy f utures
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African Energy F utures. Mafalda Duarte African Development Bank. Outline. Africa Today Global and Africa’s Income I nequality Global and Africa’s Environmental Degradation Additional Challenges due to Climate Change How to Support Transformation What is needed Innovative finance

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African Energy F utures

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African energy f utures

African Energy Futures

MafaldaDuarteAfrican Development Bank


African energy f utures

Outline

  • Africa Today

  • Global and Africa’s Income Inequality

  • Global and Africa’s Environmental Degradation

  • Additional Challenges due to Climate Change

  • How to Support Transformation

  • What is needed

  • Innovative finance

  • Opportunities in the Post-Rio+20 Landscape


African energy f utures

Africa Today:

Continued and robust growth…but mostly driven by commodity prices


African energy f utures

Africa Today:

Business climate is improving…but private sector still faces bottlenecks


African energy f utures

Africa Today:

Poverty is falling but unequally


Substantial but uneven progress

Substantial But Uneven Progress

Global Income Inequality

Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators; OECD, DAC Statistics


African energy f utures

Africa Today:

Massive infrastructure deficit


African energy f utures

Africa Today:

Regional integration and intra-regional trade needs deepening


Global environmental d egradation

Global EnvironmentalDegradation

Climate Change

Ocean acidification

Chemical pollution

(not yet quantified)

Stratospheric ozone

depletion

Atmospheric

aerosol loading

(not yet quantified)

?

?

Nitrogen

cycle

(biogeochemical

flow)

Biodiversity loss

Phosphorus

cycle

Global freshwater

use

Change in land use

Source: Rockström et al., Nature (2009)


African energy f utures

Additional Challenges

Due to

Climate Change

Pictures: AfDB


Impacts on water resources

Impacts on water resources

  • Warming expected to increase up to 1.4 ° C by 2020; 5.1 ° C by 2080

  • Increase in temperature = greater evapostranspiration; e.g. 1° C warming results 10% reduction in surface runoff (Morocco)

  • Changes in variability - more severe, intense, prolonged droughts and floods

  • Changes in groundwater recharge

  • By 2020, up to 250 million people in Africa are projected to be exposed to increased water stress


Impact on agriculture

Impact on Agriculture

  • Changes in pests, diseases, growing seasons, land-use

  • Temperature-induced crop yield losses of up to 16% per 1° C

  • Overall reductions of up to 22% across 5 crops

  • By 2020, yields from rain-fed agriculture could be 50% less in some countries, affecting food security and exacerbating malnutrition


Impact on coastal zone and marine resources

Impact on Coastal Zone and Marine Resources

African Cities at Risk

  • 19 big cities (1 million +) in LECZ*

  • Mombasa: 17% city below 0.3m

  • Banjul:most below 1m

  • Egypt: 2 million people below 0.5m

  • Abidjan, Lagos at high risk

  • Marine Resources at Risk

  • 22 of 33 coastal countries “highly vulnerable” to CC impacts on fisheries are in Africa


But opportunities too

But Opportunities Too


How to support transformation

How to SupportTransformation


African energy f utures

  • How to Support Transformation

  • Infrastructure development

$30-50 Billion Annual Gap

2% of Lost Annual

GDP Growth

• Improve transport & logistics chains

• Meet rising demand for energy

• Enhance water resources

• Expand broadband telecommunications

• Integrate urban infrastructure


African energy f utures

  • How to Support Transformation

  • Regional integration

  • Only 12% of Africa’s Trade is Intra-Regional

  • Hard infrastructure

  • Support soft infrastructure

  • Trade and Customs procedures

  • Movement of labor and capital

  • One stop border posts


African energy f utures

  • How to Support Transformation

  • Private sector development

50 million MSMEs

22% Access to Finance

Low productivity

  • Improve investment and business climate

  • Expand access to infrastructure

  • Promote enterprise development

  • Improve access to finance

  • Scale up support to MSMEs


African energy f utures

  • How to Support Transformation

  • Governance & accountability

20% live in fragile states

Weak institutions

Poor service delivery

  • Build accountability: public spending, delivery

  • Support anti-corruption initiatives

  • Strengthen debt-management capacity

  • Promote fiscal decentralization

  • Bolster property rights, access to justice

  • Improve natural resource management


African energy f utures

  • How to Support Transformation

  • Skills & technology

250 million Africans

between 15 and 24

15 million new job seekers annually

  • Build skills: science, technology, engineering

  • Support women in technical & scientific study

  • Support innovation & entrepreneurship

  • Develop networks of excellence and mentoring programs


Tailored strategies policies that promote smart behavior and tackle upfront capital constraints

What is Needed

Tailored strategies, Policies that promote smart behavior and tackle upfront capital constraints


Innovative f inance

Innovative Finance

  • Focus on upfront financing:

    • Need for new sources, but also project preparation finance and risk-management schemes

    • Borrowing constraints

    • SMEs and local governments

  • Green finance, but also:

    • Leverage public and IFI resources: engage private banks; Fund-of-funds; buy down interest rates

    • Local public finance

    • Payment for environmental services


Opportunities in the post rio 20 landscape

Opportunities in the Post-Rio+20 Landscape

  • SDGs and the post-2015 int’l development agenda

    • “Shared prosperity” and the challenge and imperative of integrating sustainability into the poverty-centric MDG framework

  • Natural Capital Accounting (NCA) + WAVES

    • UN Statistical Commission adopted a System for Environmental-Economic Accounts, and 60+ countries embraced NCA at Rio

  • Data, tools and knowledge

    • Clear demand from advanced and developing countries for better information and methods and opportunities to share good (and failed) practices


African energy f utures

Targeting and Tailoring


African energy f utures

Thank You!!

Mafalda Duarte

[email protected]


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