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African Energy F utures. Mafalda Duarte African Development Bank. Outline. Africa Today Global and Africa’s Income I nequality Global and Africa’s Environmental Degradation Additional Challenges due to Climate Change How to Support Transformation What is needed Innovative finance

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African energy f utures
African Energy Futures

MafaldaDuarteAfrican Development Bank


  • Africa Today

  • Global and Africa’s Income Inequality

  • Global and Africa’s Environmental Degradation

  • Additional Challenges due to Climate Change

  • How to Support Transformation

  • What is needed

  • Innovative finance

  • Opportunities in the Post-Rio+20 Landscape

Africa Today:

Continued and robust growth…but mostly driven by commodity prices

Africa Today:

Business climate is improving…but private sector still faces bottlenecks

Africa Today:

Poverty is falling but unequally

Substantial but uneven progress
Substantial But Uneven Progress

Global Income Inequality

Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators; OECD, DAC Statistics

Africa Today:

Massive infrastructure deficit

Africa Today:

Regional integration and intra-regional trade needs deepening

Global environmental d egradation
Global EnvironmentalDegradation

Climate Change

Ocean acidification

Chemical pollution

(not yet quantified)

Stratospheric ozone



aerosol loading

(not yet quantified)







Biodiversity loss



Global freshwater


Change in land use

Source: Rockström et al., Nature (2009)

Additional Challenges

Due to

Climate Change

Pictures: AfDB

Impacts on water resources
Impacts on water resources

  • Warming expected to increase up to 1.4 ° C by 2020; 5.1 ° C by 2080

  • Increase in temperature = greater evapostranspiration; e.g. 1° C warming results 10% reduction in surface runoff (Morocco)

  • Changes in variability - more severe, intense, prolonged droughts and floods

  • Changes in groundwater recharge

  • By 2020, up to 250 million people in Africa are projected to be exposed to increased water stress

Impact on agriculture
Impact on Agriculture

  • Changes in pests, diseases, growing seasons, land-use

  • Temperature-induced crop yield losses of up to 16% per 1° C

  • Overall reductions of up to 22% across 5 crops

  • By 2020, yields from rain-fed agriculture could be 50% less in some countries, affecting food security and exacerbating malnutrition

Impact on coastal zone and marine resources
Impact on Coastal Zone and Marine Resources

African Cities at Risk

  • 19 big cities (1 million +) in LECZ*

  • Mombasa: 17% city below 0.3m

  • Banjul:most below 1m

  • Egypt: 2 million people below 0.5m

  • Abidjan, Lagos at high risk

  • Marine Resources at Risk

  • 22 of 33 coastal countries “highly vulnerable” to CC impacts on fisheries are in Africa

How to support transformation
How to SupportTransformation

$30-50 Billion Annual Gap

2% of Lost Annual

GDP Growth

• Improve transport & logistics chains

• Meet rising demand for energy

• Enhance water resources

• Expand broadband telecommunications

• Integrate urban infrastructure

  • Only 12% of Africa’s Trade is Intra-Regional

  • Hard infrastructure

  • Support soft infrastructure

  • Trade and Customs procedures

  • Movement of labor and capital

  • One stop border posts

50 million MSMEs

22% Access to Finance

Low productivity

  • Improve investment and business climate

  • Expand access to infrastructure

  • Promote enterprise development

  • Improve access to finance

  • Scale up support to MSMEs

20% live in fragile states

Weak institutions

Poor service delivery

  • Build accountability: public spending, delivery

  • Support anti-corruption initiatives

  • Strengthen debt-management capacity

  • Promote fiscal decentralization

  • Bolster property rights, access to justice

  • Improve natural resource management

250 million Africans

between 15 and 24

15 million new job seekers annually

  • Build skills: science, technology, engineering

  • Support women in technical & scientific study

  • Support innovation & entrepreneurship

  • Develop networks of excellence and mentoring programs

Tailored strategies policies that promote smart behavior and tackle upfront capital constraints

What is Needed

Tailored strategies, Policies that promote smart behavior and tackle upfront capital constraints

Innovative f inance
Innovative Finance

  • Focus on upfront financing:

    • Need for new sources, but also project preparation finance and risk-management schemes

    • Borrowing constraints

    • SMEs and local governments

  • Green finance, but also:

    • Leverage public and IFI resources: engage private banks; Fund-of-funds; buy down interest rates

    • Local public finance

    • Payment for environmental services

Opportunities in the post rio 20 landscape
Opportunities in the Post-Rio+20 Landscape

  • SDGs and the post-2015 int’l development agenda

    • “Shared prosperity” and the challenge and imperative of integrating sustainability into the poverty-centric MDG framework

  • Natural Capital Accounting (NCA) + WAVES

    • UN Statistical Commission adopted a System for Environmental-Economic Accounts, and 60+ countries embraced NCA at Rio

  • Data, tools and knowledge

    • Clear demand from advanced and developing countries for better information and methods and opportunities to share good (and failed) practices

Thank You!!

Mafalda Duarte

[email protected]