Application of Travel and Land Use Forecasting in NEPA: Project Overview

1. Application of Travel and Land Use Forecasting in NEPA:Project Overview FHWA Environmental Conference June 19, 2008 Michael Culp-FHWA Michael.culp@dot.gov 202-366-9229

2. Motivation for project • Forecasting is a foundation for many aspects of NEPA analysis • Purpose and need • Alternatives performance • Air quality and noise impacts • Indirect and cumulative effects • Wide variety of practice • Common forecasting problems on projects • Recent litigation • Emerging issues • Supports broader DOT model improvement initiatives and NAS report

3. Project purpose • Improve procedures for describing/representing data and analysis results in NEPA documents • Improve the state-of-the-practice in application of forecasting for NEPA

4. Key project components • Process and procedural, not technical • Flexible and scalable (type of project, available tools) • Project oversight by review panel • Outreach to stakeholders • Address relevant case law • State-of-the-practice review/develop case studies • Products • Case law summary/review • Process and procedural guidance • Case studies/Guidelines Report

5. Product: Case law summary/review • Summary and review developed by FHWA Counsel • Will inform the project, provide some key elements to address in project

6. Product: Guidance • FHWA NEPA Guidance • Process and procedural in nature • Not intended to deal with detailed technical issues in forecasting tool development (not prescriptive) • How to put forecasting in the context of NEPA (application orientation) • Will address: • Scoping and documentation issues • Model and data validation and currency • Considerations for alternatives analysis • Use of tools in the context of direct, indirect and cumulative effects analysis

7. Product: Case Studies/Guidelines • Guidelines will provide more detail • Use Case Law review, guidance and outreach as basis • Will include case studies of noteworthy practices

8. Product: Training and Outreach • Follow-on project to guidelines and guidance • Create and implement strategy for training and outreach to practitioners • Communicate and educate on major findings, recommendations

9. Schedule • Draft Guidance out for comment – Sept 2008 • Final Guidance – Winter 2008/09 • Guidelines and Case Studies – Dec 2008 • Training and Outreach – Spring 2009

10. Need for assistance • Project team needs help in identifying case study projects • Over the next few months, consultants will be assembling prospective case studies to highlight in guidelines document • Please provide suggestions for case studies!

11. Questions?