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Earth Observation and Global Change. April 22, 2008 AMS Public Private Partnership Forum Frank Nutter Reinsurance Association of America. Catastrophic Losses: An Insurance Perspective. 2005 – $103 B 2004 – $ 45 B Of 20 most costly – 18 since 1990 1/3 of total insured risk is “cat” risk

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earth observation and global change

Earth Observation and Global Change

April 22, 2008

AMS

Public Private Partnership Forum

Frank Nutter

Reinsurance Association of America

slide2

Catastrophic Losses: An Insurance Perspective

  • 2005 – $103 B
  • 2004 – $ 45 B
  • Of 20 most costly – 18 since 1990
  • 1/3 of total insured risk is “cat” risk
  • NFIP
  • Black Swans?
attribution of losses
Attribution of Losses
  • Urbanization
  • Values at Risk
  • Population Shift
  • Weather / Climate
hierarchy of perils
Hierarchy of Perils
  • US Hurricane
  • California Earthquake
  • European Wind
  • Japanese Earthquake
  • Japan Typhoon
  • Tornado/Hail
  • Floods
  • Storm Surge
  • Coastal Flooding
  • Inland Flooding
  • Tsunami
  • Fire Following Earthquake

Peak

Off Peak

Secondary

an insurer s cat strategy
An Insurer’s “Cat” Strategy
  • Quantification of Risk
  • Pricing Risk
  • Hedging
a progressive re insurer s strategy
A Progressive (Re)insurer’s Strategy
  • Assess client climate exposure
  • Sell catastrophic reinsurance
  • Provide risk transfer products
  • Capital markets products
  • Weather derivatives
  • Investment in alternative energy
  • Carbon trading and guarantees
  • Footprint
  • Employee incentives
research needs
Research Needs
  • Extend the historical record
  • Land fall probabilities with wind speed
  • Storm tracks
  • Correlations, if any, between regions
  • Extremes and outliers
  • Hurricane power/size
  • Sea level rise and storm surge
  • Potential for abrupt events
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