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Earth Observation and Global Change. April 22, 2008 AMS Public Private Partnership Forum Frank Nutter Reinsurance Association of America. Catastrophic Losses: An Insurance Perspective. 2005 – $103 B 2004 – $ 45 B Of 20 most costly – 18 since 1990 1/3 of total insured risk is “cat” risk

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Earth observation and global change

Earth Observation and Global Change

April 22, 2008

AMS

Public Private Partnership Forum

Frank Nutter

Reinsurance Association of America


Catastrophic Losses: An Insurance Perspective

  • 2005 – $103 B

  • 2004 – $ 45 B

  • Of 20 most costly – 18 since 1990

  • 1/3 of total insured risk is “cat” risk

  • NFIP

  • Black Swans?


Attribution of losses
Attribution of Losses

  • Urbanization

  • Values at Risk

  • Population Shift

  • Weather / Climate


Assessing risk
Assessing Risk

  • RMS

  • AIR

  • EQE


Hierarchy of perils
Hierarchy of Perils

  • US Hurricane

  • California Earthquake

  • European Wind

  • Japanese Earthquake

  • Japan Typhoon

  • Tornado/Hail

  • Floods

  • Storm Surge

  • Coastal Flooding

  • Inland Flooding

  • Tsunami

  • Fire Following Earthquake

Peak

Off Peak

Secondary


An insurer s cat strategy
An Insurer’s “Cat” Strategy

  • Quantification of Risk

  • Pricing Risk

  • Hedging


A progressive re insurer s strategy
A Progressive (Re)insurer’s Strategy

  • Assess client climate exposure

  • Sell catastrophic reinsurance

  • Provide risk transfer products

  • Capital markets products

  • Weather derivatives

  • Investment in alternative energy

  • Carbon trading and guarantees

  • Footprint

  • Employee incentives


Research needs
Research Needs

  • Extend the historical record

  • Land fall probabilities with wind speed

  • Storm tracks

  • Correlations, if any, between regions

  • Extremes and outliers

  • Hurricane power/size

  • Sea level rise and storm surge

  • Potential for abrupt events



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