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State of College Admission 2011

State of College Admission 2011. David A. Hawkins Director of Public Policy and Research NACAC Presented November 10, 2011 CACNY Meeting, New York. Components of Report. Counseling Trends Survey Admission Trends Survey External Data US Department of Education IPEDS Data US Census Bureau

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State of College Admission 2011

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  1. State of College Admission2011 David A. Hawkins Director of Public Policy and ResearchNACAC Presented November 10, 2011 CACNY Meeting, New York

  2. Components of Report • Counseling Trends Survey • Admission Trends Survey • External Data • US Department of Education IPEDS Data • US Census Bureau • College Board Annual Survey • Other Education Organizations

  3. Chapter 1: The Flow of Students • Number of HS Grads Peaked at 3.33 Million for 2008–09 • 3.28 Million in 2010–11 • Wide Variations by State and Region; Race/Ethnicity; Age • Total College Enrollment Will Increase At Least Through 2020

  4. Projected Percentage Change in Public High School Graduates, by State: 2007–08 to 2020–21 SOURCE: Projections of Education Statistics to 2020.(2011). US Department of Education, Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics. (Figure 8).

  5. Actual and Projected Numbers of Public High School Graduates, by Region: School Years 2002–03, 2007–08, and 2020–21 SOURCE: Projections of Education Statistics to 2020.(2011). US Department of Education, Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics. (Table 14).

  6. Actual and Projected Numbers of Public High School Graduates, by Race/Ethnicity: School Years 2002–03, 2007–08, and 2020–21 SOURCE: Projections of Education Statistics to 2020.(2011). US Department of Education, Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics. (Table 13).

  7. Actual and Projected Enrollment in All Postsecondary Degree-Granting Institutions, by Race/Ethnicity: Fall 1999, Fall 2009, and Fall 2020 SOURCE: Projections of Education Statistics to 2020.(2011). US Department of Education, Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics. (Table 29).

  8. Actual and Projected Enrollment in All Postsecondary Degree-Granting Institutions, by Age: Fall 1999, Fall 2009, and Fall 2020 SOURCE: Projections of Education Statistics to 2020.(2011). US Department of Education, Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics. (Table 21).

  9. Chapter 2. Applications and Selectivity • Applications Per Student Continues to Increase • Nearly Three-Quarters of Colleges Report Application Increases • Average Acceptance Rate Down Slightly

  10. Percentage of Students Submitting Three or More and Seven or More Applications: 1990 to 2010 SOURCES: Pryor, J.H., Hurtado, S., Saenz, V.B., Santos, J.L., and Korn, W.S. (2007). The American Freshman: Forty Year Trends, 1966–2006. Los Angeles: Higher Education Research Institute, UCLA. Data from 2007 – 2010 are from annual editions of The American Freshman: National Norms reports also published by the Higher Education Research Institute, UCLA.

  11. Percentage of Colleges Reporting Change from the Previous Year in Number of Applications for Fall Admission: 1996 to 2010 Source: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2010.

  12. Mean Selectivity and Yield: Fall 2010 SOURCE: Integrated Postsecondary Data System (IPEDS) online Data Center. (2010-11). U.S. Department of Education, Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics.

  13. Applications and Enrollment By Selectivity SOURCE: Integrated Postsecondary Data System (IPEDS) online Data Center. (2009-10). U.S. Department of Education, Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics.

  14. Chapter 3. Admission Strategies • Decrease in Early Decision Apps and Admits • Only 38 Percent Reported Increases in ED Apps • 36 Percent Reported Increases in ED Admits • Early Action Activity Holds • 72 Percent Reported Increases in EA Apps • 68 Percent Reported Increases in EA Admits • More Colleges Use Wait Lists; Admission Chances Low • 48 Percent Used Wait List, Up From 39 Percent in 2009 • 28 Percent Admitted, Down from 34 Percent in 2009

  15. Percentage of Colleges Using Early Decision, Early Action, and Wait Lists:Fall 2010 NOTE: Figures in italics should be interpreted with caution due to low sample size (fewer than 15 institutions per cell). SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2010.

  16. Key Statistics for Early Decision Colleges: Fall 2010 SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends, 2010..

  17. Gap In Acceptance Rate Between ED Admits and All Admits at ED Colleges SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2007 to 2010.

  18. Key Statistics for Early Action Colleges: Fall 2010 SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2010.

  19. Mean Percentage of Students Admitted off the Wait List: Fall 2010 NOTE: Figures in italics should be interpreted with caution due to low sample size (fewer than 15 institutions per cell). SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2010.

  20. Chapter 4. Factors in the Admission Decision • Top Factors Unchanged • Grades in College Prep Courses • Strength of Curriculum • Test Scores • Overall GPA

  21. Percentage of Colleges Attributing Different Levels of Importance to Factors in the Admission Decision: Fall 2010 SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2010.

  22. Factors Showing Most Change in “Considerable Importance” Rating: 1993 to 2010 Source: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2010.

  23. Factors by Institutional Characteristics • Public vs. Private • Private: essay, interview, counselor and teacher recommendations, extracurricular activities, SAT II scores, the portfolio, demonstrated interest, and work • Public: admission test scores • Enrollment Size • Smaller: essay, interview, counselor and teacher recommendations, demonstrated interest, state grad. exams • Larger: strength of curriculum, admission test scores • Selectivity • More Selective: strength of curriculum, grades in college prep courses, essay, class rank, teacher and counselor recommendations, extracurricular activities, work, portfolios, subject test scores, and SAT II scores

  24. Percentage of Colleges Attributing Importance to the Influence of Student Characteristics on the Evaluation of Factors in the Admission Decision: Fall 2010 SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2010.

  25. Chapter 5. College Counseling In High Schools • Student-to-Counselor Ratios • Time Spent on College Counseling

  26. Students Per Counselor by School Characteristics SOURCE: NACAC Counseling Trends Survey, 2010.

  27. Percentage of Time on College Counseling Private Schools Public Schools SOURCE: NACAC Counseling Trends Survey, 2010.

  28. Chapter 6. The Admission Office • Applications Per Admission Officer • Cost to Recruit

  29. Applications Per Admission Officer SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2010.

  30. Cost-to-Recruit NOTE: Figures in italics should be interpreted with caution due to low sample size (fewer than 15 institutions per cell). SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2010.

  31. We Welcome Your Input David Hawkins dhawkins@nacacnet.org 703-299-6809

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