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The Nexus Between Knowledge Management and Futures Studies

This text explores the relationship between knowledge management and futures studies, highlighting the need for management competencies in futures studies and the challenges of elicitation and codification of knowledge. It also discusses how futures studies methods offer alternative approaches to knowledge management practice.

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The Nexus Between Knowledge Management and Futures Studies

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  1. The Nexus Between Knowledge Management and Futures Studies Address to 3rd ACT-KM Conference Canberra, 22 October 2002

  2. Propositions • Futures studies are ‘knowledge activities’ requiring management competencies. • Futures studies are people-centric, and explicitly address the difficulties in elicitation and codification of knowledge • Futures studies methods offer alternative approaches to knowledge management practice

  3. Knowledge Activities as a Journey Embracing Multiple Perspectives

  4. Policy Monitoring environmental changes Direction-setting Disruption from the environment: political, physical, technological, economic, social and trade Agency Strategy & Integration Performance Systems Operations Deviation from plans Knowledge Activities as Integrative

  5. Knowledge Activities in Need of ‘Helps’ to Support Understanding ‘Neither the naked hand nor the understanding left to itself can effect much. It is by instruments and helps that work is best done, which are as much wanted for the understanding as for the hand.’ (Francis Bacon, 1620)

  6. Futures Studies in Context

  7. Futures Studies Principles • is not about predicting the future, • creates a choice of futures by outlining alternative possibilities, • is a foundation for planning, • is interdisciplinary, • is often based on both imagination and historical knowledge, • is often aimed at shaping present action.

  8. Typology of Futures Studies Methods Eg. Scenario Analysis Eg. Fisher-Pry Analysis Eg. Analysis by Analogy Eg. Content Analysis Eg. Delphi Studies

  9. Knowledge Principles • Knowledge originates and resides in people's minds (Tom Davenport) • Knowledge is volunteered, never conscripted (Peter Drucker) • We know more than we can say and we can say more that we can write (Michael Polanyi) • We only know what we know when we need to know it (Dave Snowden) • Knowledge itself is power (Francis Bacon)

  10. Knowledge Processes

  11. Challenges in Knowledge Management • Supply Side Issues: • Knowledge elicitation • Knowledge codification • Knowledge transfer • Demand Side Issues: • Knowledge creation • Bridging the ‘knowing-doing’ gap

  12. Knowledge Elicitation • Use of open-ended questions • Use of ‘remarkable people’ • Thinking outside of the box • Envisioning the possible • Connecting with and shining light upon existing ‘mental models’

  13. Quantitative models scenarios Completeness of Information Qualitative stories Clarity of Understanding Knowledge Codification

  14. Knowledge Transfer • Strategic conversation – a shared language and a common view about the future that can be the basis of continuing discussion and exploration • Building bridges to bring together knowledge and expertise in many people across all areas and activities in order to increase collective well-being

  15. Knowledge Creation • Generates insights that may not otherwise be accessible eg. signposts which are events, occurrences or observations that can be scanned in the real world • Avoids the ‘structural inertia’ of forecasting, which presumes that the future can be described from the past and the present

  16. Signposts to Alternate Futures I III IV II 2020 Uncertainty Uncertainty Uncertainty Uncertainty Uncertainty Today 2001

  17. Bridging the ‘Knowing-Doing’ Gap • Catalyst for innovation, creativity and future-focused thinking • Wind tunneling to discriminate enduring ‘value drivers’ from a plethora of variables

  18. Test Strategic Settingsby Wind-tunneling Scenarios – Conditions in the wind tunnel Aircraft is the intended or possible strategy Are your assumptions still valid?

  19. Cautionary Tales • Creation of organisational ‘blind spots’ from believing scenarios • Creation of ‘informed elites’ • Creation of communication difficulties • Marginalisation of knowledge activity in isolation of organisational decision making

  20. Concluding Thoughts • The field of futures studies can provide ‘helps’ and ‘instruments’ for some of the more challenging aspects of KM practice • The essentially people-centric approaches of futures studies may offer a counter-balance to technology-centric approaches of the KM industry • The artifacts of futures studies respond well to knowledge dynamics

  21. Any Questions? • Brett Peppler • Managing Director • Intelligent Futures Pty Ltd • Tel: (02) 6255 8213 • Fax: (02) 6255 8214 • Email: ceo@ifutures.com.au • Web: http://www.ifutures.com.au

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