Current Research

1. Current Research Julie Winkler Department of Geography April 5, 2010

2. Research Interests • Synoptic climatology • Impacts of climate variability and change

3. Current Funded Research • “A row crop ecosystems in a changing climate: Enhancing ecosystem services at field farm and watershed scales” • USDA/EPA • A. Kravchenko, S. Snapp, A. Grandy, J. Winkler, and J. Andresen. • $475,400 • March 1, 2010 – February 28, 2014 • “Towards an Integrated Framework for Climate Change Impact Assessments for International Market Systems with Long-Term Investments” • NSF, Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human Systems Program • J. Winkler, S. Thornsbury, P.-N. Tan, J. Andresen, J.R. Black, S. Loveridge, S. Zhong, J. Zhao, N. Rothwell, and A. Iezzoni • $1,499,763 • October 1, 2009 – September 30, 2014 • “Toward an Improved Understanding of the Characteristics, Processes, and Impacts of Northerly and Southerly Low-Level Jets in the Central United States” • NSF • J.A. Winkler and S. Zhong (Michigan State University); C. Walters (University of Michigan-Dearborn) • $421,610 (MSU portion ) • September 1, 2009 – February 28, 2013 • “Great Lakes Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments Center” • NOAA • D. Scavia, T. Dietz, J. Andresen, M. Lemos, R. Rood, J. Winkler, M. Huntley, C. Pistis, and M. Staton • $3,495,180 • Beginning October, 2010

4. Traditional Climate Change Assessments(following Carter et al. 2007) Single Location or Region • Local/regional in scale • Isolated time slice(s) • assessments for different time slices are not informed by earlier time periods • Focus on a specific system, process, or industry • Local/regional climate projections downscaled from simulations from global climate models • Also referred to as a “top-down” approach • Static modeling • often used a series of linked models • “feed forward” approach to downstream models without interactions and feedbacks • Spatial interactions and interdependencies are not considered Isolated time slice Specific System, Process or Industry Static Modeling Output is an assessment of potential impacts for a SYSTEM or ACTIVITY for a LOCATION/REGION

5. Comprehensive Integrated Assessments Global • Global viewpoint • Sectoral or cross-sectoral interactions • Often use dynamic modeling • Complex integrated models • Include system components and feedbacks • Continuously running models • Examples include IMAGE, DICE, PAGE, etc. • Limitations • often not fully integrative across all aspects of a system • relatively simple characterizations for some if not all of the system components Sector (Multiple Industries) Dynamic Modeling Continuously running models Output is an assessment of potential impacts for a SECTOR or multiple sectors at the GLOBAL scale

6. What is missing? • Assessment methods for sub-sectors (i.e., specific industry) with international markets • These assessments require: • a broader spatial perspective than a traditional assessment • more detail than the “broad brush” approach of a comprehensive integrated assessment • greater incorporation of temporal dynamics • changing patterns of international trade, consumption and production • adaptation (spatially differentiated between production regions) by stakeholders groups within the industry

7. Approach Used in Pileus Project Single Location or Region • Michigan • Tart cherry industry • End-to-end assessment • Early, mid, and late century time slices • No consideration of • Climate impacts on tart cherry production outside of Michigan • Adaptation Specific System, Process or Industry Static Modeling Isolated time slice(s) Output is an assessment of potential impacts for a SYSTEM or ACTIVITY for a LOCATION/REGION

8. End-to-End Assessment Approach Industry, Ecological or Activity Model Economic Model(s) Climate Observations or Scenarios Risk Management Decision Making Tools

9. Many sources of uncertainty need to be considered Ensemble approach where multiple scenarios are used to estimate the “quantifiable range of uncertainty”. Uncertainty Evaluation limited to Climate Scenario Ensembles Source: IPCC, 2001

10. Beyond Pileus • Impetus came from stakeholders • 2002 freeze event “opened the door” to foreign imports • Develop a conceptual framework for climate change assessments for international market systems • Emphasis on “tractable” • data requirements reasonable/obtainable • methods for temporal and spatial scaling (both upscaling and downscaling) transferable to multiple regions • procedures for evaluating the sensitivity of the assessment outcomes to uncertainty

11. Example Industry: The Tart Cherry Industry • Highly sensitive to weather and climate extremes • Requires long-term capital investment decisions • orchard life cycles ~ 20-30 years • Limited adaptation options • Undergoing a substantial evolution with large potential regional and international shifts of production and international trade • Small enough in size and scope that it is possible to build a research team familiar with the different industry components and production regions • major production areas are Michigan and central Europe • Subject of previous intensive efforts to understand the impacts of weather and climate at the local/regional level • Pileus Project (www.pileus.msu.edu) • KliO (www.agrar.hu-berlin.de/agrarmet/forschung/fp/KliO_html)

12. Expanded Assessment Approach • Hybrid Modeling • Combines dynamic and static modeling • Continuous, evolving projections for system components where this is possible • e.g., climate • Static modeling for time slices where dynamic modeling is not feasible • Dynamic models of economic components are either overly abstract or the modeling requires enormous resources and is not tractable • Time Slices • Short enough that while climate is changing the amount of change is relatively small so that the focus within each time slice is on the impact of climate variability. • Later time slices are informed by outcomes of earlier time slices

13. Types of Climate Change Impact Assessments Traditional Impact Assessment Comprehensive Integrated Assessment Expanded Impact Assessment Differences between assessment types Specific Industry Single Location or Region Specific Industry Multiple Regions/Global Sector (Multiple Industries) Global Static Modeling: Models for individual processes “feed forward” to downstream models without interactions and feedbacks Dynamic Modeling: Complex, integrated models which contain all system components and feedbacks Hybrid Modeling (dynamic, static): Models with different complexity (individual processes and complex processes with interactions) Outcomes of earlier time slices inform future time slices Time slice 1 Time slice 2 Continuously running models Isolated time slice Dynamic modeling Time slice 3 Static modeling within time slices Output is an assessment of potential impacts for a LOCATION or REGION Output is an assessment of potential impacts for an INDUSTRY (sub-sector) Output is an assessment of potential impacts for a SECTOR or multiple sectors * Winkler, J.A., S. Thornsbury, M. Artavio, F.-M. Chmielewski, D. Kirschke, S. Lee, M. Liszewska, S. Loveridge, P.-N. Tan, S. Zhong, J.A. Andresen, J.R. Black, R. Kurlus, D. Nizalov, N. Olynk, Z. Ustrnul, C. Zavalloni, J.M. Bisanz, G. Bujdosó, L. Fusina, Y. Henniges, P. Hilsendegen, K. Lar, L. Malarzewski, T. Moeller, R. Murmylo, T. Niedzwiedz, O. Nizalova, H. Prawiranata, N. Rothwell, J. van Ravensway, H. von Witzke, and M. Woods, 2010: Multi-regional climate change assessments for international market systems with long-term investments: A conceptual framework. Climatic Change, DOI 10.1007/s10584-009-9781-1 .

14. Expanded Framework

15. Our Current Objective • Can we demonstrate that it is possible, in spite of numerous constraints, to conduct an industry-wide assessment of the potential impacts of climate change that is meaningful to industry stakeholders and to do so within a framework that allows comparison and integration among different industries particularly within the same sector?

16. Climate Projections • Local scenario ensembles for locations in Europe and Michigan • Development of combined dynamic/empirical downscaling methods • Improved methods for simulating extremes • Introducing landscape temperature variability

17. Weather Dependency Modeling • Modification, development and evaluation of tart cherry phenology and yield models • Output will be a joint probability distribution of production across regions

18. Adaptation • Identify adaptation options for tart cherry production • change in cultivars • input mix (e.g., more/less frost protection), irrigation • land use changes (e.g., converting orchards to alternative uses) • use of insurance instruments • Availability of adaptation options and willingness to adapt need to be considered • Real Options Model • Link productivity projections with market equilibrium generated from decision-making across a set of adaptation options • Define decision trees to identify conditional decisions faced by growers • Assign joint probability distributions to prices and yields.

19. Trade Models • Trade links markets between production regions both within a country and internationally • Adjust multi-regional supply and demand model for climate impact analysis • Supply functions • capture regional differences of impact of climate change on productivity • reflect quantity of product supplied per year at alternative prices for a “typical” year within a time slice. • Demand equations • functions of commodity prices and income at the beginning of a time slice.

20. Regional Economic Development • Future scenarios of macro-economic variables consistent with emissions scenarios used in the climate model projections • Between time-slice projections of regional economic variables (e.g., income)

21. “Meta-Uncertainty” • Two broad categories of uncertainty: • calibration error • introduced by the short period of observations available to calibrate a model • model structure error • arising from how a model is formulated • Meta-uncertainty • aggregated uncertainty due to differences in the functional form, or structure, of the suite of linked models. • Ensemble of “final” outcomes from the linked climate, yield, and economic models • The ensemble members reflect different combinations of alternative model structures.

22. Summary • Traditional local/regional climate impact assessments, while useful, do not consider important spatial and temporal interactions. • An “expanded” assessment approach is needed, particularly for international market systems.