Allocation of biomass wp5 energy modeling approach and scenario assumptions
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Allocation of biomass (WP5) energy modeling approach and scenario assumptions. Joost van Stralen (ECN) Biomass Futures workshop, November 26 th , Brussels. Objective RESolve Biomass allocation in RESolve Scenario assumptions Conclusions. Contents . Objective.

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Allocation of biomass wp5 energy modeling approach and scenario assumptions

Allocation of biomass (WP5)energymodeling approach and scenario assumptions

Joost van Stralen (ECN)

BiomassFutures workshop, November 26th, Brussels


Contents

Objective

RESolve

Biomassallocation in RESolve

Scenario assumptions

Conclusions

Contents


Objective

Objective

“Assess the role of bioenergy in different sectors”

  • Develop a model thatallowsforbiomassallocation over different sectors

  • Scenario analysis

  • Interactionwith PRIMES


Nreap figures

NREAP figures*

* 21 EU countries


Allocation of biomass wp5 energy modeling approach and scenario assumptions

Production-consumptionchains

Land availability (supply)

Production of biomass

Conversionintobio(-energy) commodities

Conversionintobio(-energy) products

Market (demand)

Functions of the products


Resolve overview

RESolve: overview

E-prices:

COMPETES

RESolve

Biofuels:

RESolve-T

RES-E:

RESolve-E

Biomass allocation

RES-H/C:

RESolve-H/C


Resolve e

RESolve-E*

  • Decoupling of greymarket

  • Barriers and distortions

  • Realisablepotentials

*Formerlyknown as ADMIRE-REBUS


Biomass technology combinations

Biomass – technologycombinations

Per resource, start with lowest cost technology


Resolve h

RESolve-H


Resolve t

RESolve-T*

Find the minimal costallocationsalong the biofuelsupplychain in a group of countries, givenprojections of demand (biofuel target), potentials and technologicalprogress

EU countries

*Formerlyknown as BioTrans


How does it work

How does itwork?

Import & export


Allocation of biomass wp5 energy modeling approach and scenario assumptions

What kind of categories are supplied?


What kind of categories are supplied

Fuels

Biodiesel, Bio-FT-diesel, Bio-DME, Bio-SNG

Bioethanol, Lignocellulosic ethanol, Biogas

Emissions

CO2, CH4, N2O as CO2-equivalents

Technologies

Biofuelproducingtechnologies, incl. torrefaction&oilextraction

Countriesand Regions

Europe: West, Central/East; Ukraine, Rest of World

What kind of categories are supplied ?


Cost supply curves for crops

Costsupplycurvesforcrops

Nuts2 level

Example: Austria in 2010


How to allocate biomass over the different sectors

E, H and T treatedunbiased

Avoid double counting

Import and export of biomass

Emissions over the chain

How to allocatebiomass over the different sectors?

  • New demandsegments in RESolve-T:

  • Bio-electricity

  • Bio-heat

  • Extension of RESolve-T


Biomass allocation in resolve t

Biomassallocation in RESolve(-T)

Find the minimal costallocationsalong the bio-energysupplychain in a group of countries, givenprojections of demands(biofueltarget, demandforbio-electricity and -heat), potentials and technologicalprogress


Connection of models flowchart

RESolve-E

RESolve-H

-demand bio-heat

- RES-H support

-demand bio-electr

- RES-E support

RESolve-T

-pfeedstock

-biomass pot. RES-E

-demand bio-electr

- RES-E support

RESolve-E

-pfeedstock

-biomass pot. RES-H

-demand bio-heat

- RES-H support

RESolve-H

RES-E/H demand converged?

NO

YES

-Final RES-mix

-avoided emissions

-other indicators

Connection of models - Flowchart


How to deal with demand supply

How to deal withdemand > supply?

FINE?

NOT FINE?

General demandtoolarge

→ decreasefrom sector

Withlowestdemand ‘pull’

Comparisonwith RES-E

and -H alternatives


Current status

Current status

RESolve-E

RESolve-H

-demand bio-heat

- RES-H support

-demand bio-electr

- RES-E support

RESolve-T

-pfeedstock

-biomass pot. RES-E

-demand bio-electr

- RES-E support

RESolve-E

-pfeedstock

-biomass pot. RES-H

-demand bio-heat

- RES-H support

RESolve-H

RES-E/H demand converged?

NO

YES

-Final RES-mix

-avoided emissions

-other indicators

Current status


Scenarios

Fast development

non-biomass RES

‘NREAP’

Low biomass

Optimistic

availability

of biomass

Pessimistic

availability

of biomass

Medium biomass

Largebiomass

Slow development

non-biomass RES

Scenarios


Cases

CASES

Zoom in at NREAP scenario in more detail

CASE 1:Achieving a maximum biofuelcontribution

CASE 2: More electrification in the transport sector

CASE 3:Additional RES-H support

CASE 4: Focus onminimizing GHG emissions


Conclusions

A methodologyforbiomassallocation has been developed (D5.1)

Implementation is goingon → couplingRESolve-X models. RESolve-Tusedforallocation of biomass

Draftscenarios have been developed

Interactionwith PRIMES needs to beworkedon

Conclusions


Questions

Questions?


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