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COST Action ES0803. Analysis of the ultimate space storm A Scientific and Operational Framework for ES0803. M. Messerotti 1.2 1 INAF-Astronomical Observatory of Trieste 2 Department of Physics , University of Trieste. Aim of the Project. DEFINE THE ULTIMATE SPACE STORM

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Analysis of the ultimate space storm A Scientific and Operational Framework for ES0803

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Cost action es0803

COST Action ES0803

Analysisof the ultimate spacestormA Scientific and OperationalFrameworkfor ES0803

M. Messerotti1.2

1INAF-AstronomicalObservatoryof Trieste

2DepartmentofPhysics, Universityof Trieste

MCM-02 Rome M. Messerotti


Aim of the project

Aimof the Project

  • DEFINE THE ULTIMATE SPACE STORM

  • SIMULATE TRIGGERS, PERTURBATIONS AND EFFECTS

  • ASSESS AND IMPROVE RESOURCES

  • DISSEMINATE OUTCOMES

WG1

WG1

WG1

WG2

WG3

MCM-02 Rome M. Messerotti


Define the ultimate space storm

DEFINE THE ULTIMATE SPACE STORM

  • IDENTIFY THE MOST UNFAVOURABLE CONDITIONS AT:

    • THE SUN

    • THE IPM

    • THE GEOSPACE

  • IDENTIFY THE MOST ADVERSE EFFECTS IN:

    • THE IPM

    • THE GEOSPACE

WG1 SG1.1

WG1 SG1.1

MCM-02 Rome M. Messerotti


Worst conditions at the sun

WORST CONDITIONS AT THE SUN

  • Persistent, magneticallycomplex, productive AR(s)

  • OutstandingFlares / SeriesofFlares

  • SPE(s) / SCR

  • Gamma, X, EUV, UV, Radio Outburst(s)

  • Halo/Earth-directed CME(s)

  • Fast Solar Wind Streams

WG1 SG1.1

MCM-02 Rome M. Messerotti


Worst conditions at the ipm

WORST CONDITIONS AT THE IPM

  • Seriesofperturbations:

    • Propagationanalysis

    • Radio signaturesidentification and analysis

WG1 SG1.1

MCM-02 Rome M. Messerotti


Worst conditions at the geospace

WORST CONDITIONS AT THE GEOSPACE

Analysisof:

  • Magneticcoupling

  • Perturbations

  • Effects in:

    • Magnetosphere

    • Ionosphere

    • Thermosphere

    • Troposphere

    • Ground

WG1 SG1.1

MCM-02 Rome M. Messerotti


Products

PRODUCTS

  • 4D MAP OF EFFECTS characterizedby:

    • SEVERITY LEVEL

    • GEOGRAPHICAL LOCATION

  • Thisis a key aspecttoraise the awarenessoffundingagencies, stakeholders and decisionmakers

WG1 SG1.1

WG3 SG3.2

MCM-02 Rome M. Messerotti


Triggers perturbations and effects modelling

TRIGGERS, PERTURBATIONSAND EFFECTS MODELLING

  • SIMULATION OF THE PHENOMENOLOGY VIA AVAILABLE MODELLING RESOURCES:

    • CCMC

    • SPECIFIC MODELS

    • OTHER

WG1 SG1.1

WG1 SG1.2

WG2 SG2.1

MCM-02 Rome M. Messerotti


Products1

PRODUCTS

  • SURVEY OF EXISTING RESOURCES

  • APPLICATION OF EXISTING RESOURCES

  • INDICATIONS ABOUT IMPROVEMENTS AND NEW REQUIREMENTS

  • MAP OF MODELLING RESOURCES parameterizedaccordingtotheirsuitability and effectivenessfor the defined goal

WG2 SG2.1

WG1 SG1.1

WG1 SG1.2

WG1 SG1.3

WG2 SG2.1

WG2 SG2.3

WG3 SG3.2

MCM-02 Rome M. Messerotti


Assess improve suggest

ASSESS, IMPROVE & SUGGEST

WG1 SG1.1

WG1 SG1.2

WG1 SG1.3

WG2 SG2.1

WG2 SG2.3

WG3 SG3.2

MCM-02 Rome M. Messerotti


Conclusions

CONCLUSIONS

The project:

  • Fulfills the ES0803 MoU

  • IsnotanMoUreplacement, butanextendeduse case involvingmany (butnotall) WG SG activities

  • Representsan innovative approach

  • Generatesoriginalscientific and appliedproducts

  • Has a greatpotential impact to the fundingagencies, stakeholders and decisionmakers

  • Is a valuablescientificbasisforeducation and outreach

MCM-02 Rome M. Messerotti


The ultimate space storm characterization and modelling

The ultimate space storm: characterization and modelling

6th EuropeanSpaceWeather Week

16-20 November, 2009 - Brugge, Belgium

http://sidc.oma.be/esww6/

SPLINTER MEETING

Room “Bach”

16:30-18:00

Contact: [email protected]

ESWW6 Brugge BE M. Messerotti


Esww6 splinter description

ESWW6 Splinter Description

Theoretically, the ultimate space storm can be defined as the set of most severe perturbative manifestations originated by the most unfavourable concurrent conditions at the Sun, in the interplanetary space and in geospace. In practice, the above definition has to be extensively and quantitatively detailed in terms of solar weather, interplanetary weather and geospace weather to asset the physical drivers and to evaluate the relevant effects.

This project has been started in the framework of COST Action ES0803 "Developing space weather products and services in Europe", but it has to be expanded in order to reach its ambitious goals.

In fact, the aim of this splinter meeting is to involve the interested communities in creating a scientific and operational framework to achieve the goal of quantifying via the present and forthcoming modelling tools the worst concurrent space weather effects ever experienced by technological and biological systems, as well as to produce 4D maps of such effects as a working tool for evaluating the maximum risk involved in the various geospace sub-domains and technological sub-systems. The splinter is organized as an open discussion, but short presentations on key topics/use cases suitable to stimulate the discussion are welcome.

Key topics: Solar weather (Persistent, magnetically complex, productiveAR(s); Outstanding flares/Series of flares; SPE(s)/SCR; Gamma, X, EUV, UV, RadioOutburst(s); Halo/Earth-directed CME(s); FastSolarWindStreams); Interplanetary weather (Propagating perturbations identification and analysis); Geospace weather (Magnetic coupling; Perturbations; Effects in Magnetosphere-Ionosphere-Thermosphere-Troposphere-Ground); Advanced modelling tools.

ESWW6 Brugge BE M. Messerotti


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