The Future of Occupational and Environmental Medicine

1. Robert K. McLellan, MD,MPH,FACOEM President, ACOEM The Future of Occupational and Environmental Medicine

2. Overview Trends in the workplace in occupational injury and illness in public health in the OEM workforce, training and research ACOEM Initiatives Visioning the Future of OEM

3. Changes in the American Workforce:Demographics is Our Destiny Demographics Workforce is more diverse in age, gender, race, and nationality Most new jobs in businesses with less than 500 workers Large numbers of illegal immigrant workers Nature of work Increasing proportion of service, health care, computer jobs Decreasing proportion of manufacturing, agriculture, fishing Organization of work Transient employment (temporary, contracted workers) E-commerce Homework and the 24 x 7 workweek Globalization As noted earlier, the economy added over 20 million jobs from 1988 to 1998, or an 18 percent growth. Any occupational group that expanded at a slower rate (all major occupational groups added jobs) saw its share of overall employment decline. Those occupational groups with the slowest growth and the concomitant sharpest decline in share of overall employment were agriculture, forestry, and fishing occupations and the precision production, craft, and repair occupational group, the latter of which is associated, in many instances, with manufacturing. Slower than average growth was also experienced by operators, fabricators, and laborers and also by clerical workers, groups that have seen technology lower the demand for their skills. On the other hand, very rapid growth was seen among the professional specialty and the executive, administrative, and managerial occupational groups. Marketing and sales and technician occupations also showed faster than average growth and thus saw their share of overall employment increase in the past decade. Workers in these rapidly growing occupational groups tended to be employed in very large numbers in the rapidly growing service sector (Table 4-2).TABLE 4-2 Employment by Major Occupational Group for 1988 and 1998 and Projected Employment for 2010 (in millions of persons) Occupational Group198819982010Executive, administrative, and managerial12.114.417.5Professional specialty occupations14.719.726.4Technicians and related support occupations3.94.96.1Marketing and sales occupations12.115.518.6Administrative support occupations, clerical22.124.727.0Service occupations18.422.327.8Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and related occupations3.63.83.8Precision production, craft, and repair occupations14.114.515.3Operators, fabricators, and laborers14.118.320.2Total117.8138.5162.8 As noted earlier, the economy added over 20 million jobs from 1988 to 1998, or an 18 percent growth. Any occupational group that expanded at a slower rate (all major occupational groups added jobs) saw its share of overall employment decline. Those occupational groups with the slowest growth and the concomitant sharpest decline in share of overall employment were agriculture, forestry, and fishing occupations and the precision production, craft, and repair occupational group, the latter of which is associated, in many instances, with manufacturing. Slower than average growth was also experienced by operators, fabricators, and laborers and also by clerical workers, groups that have seen technology lower the demand for their skills. On the other hand, very rapid growth was seen among the professional specialty and the executive, administrative, and managerial occupational groups. Marketing and sales and technician occupations also showed faster than average growth and thus saw their share of overall employment increase in the past decade. Workers in these rapidly growing occupational groups tended to be employed in very large numbers in the rapidly growing service sector (Table 4-2).TABLE 4-2 Employment by Major Occupational Group for 1988 and 1998 and Projected Employment for 2010 (in millions of persons) Occupational Group198819982010Executive, administrative, and managerial12.114.417.5Professional specialty occupations14.719.726.4Technicians and related support occupations3.94.96.1Marketing and sales occupations12.115.518.6Administrative support occupations, clerical22.124.727.0Service occupations18.422.327.8Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and related occupations3.63.83.8Precision production, craft, and repair occupations14.114.515.3Operators, fabricators, and laborers14.118.320.2Total117.8138.5162.8

4. Decreasing Role of Organized Labor Manufacturing union membership: 1983: 4 million 2002: under 2.5 million