LOW CARBON COMMUNITIES CONFERENCE – 13 JULY 2011
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LOW CARBON COMMUNITIES CONFERENCE – 13 JULY 2011. CAN WE AFFORD ZERO CARBON HOMES?. Paddy Conaghan [email protected] A GOOD BUY. WHAT PARETO SAYS!. “80% of effects come from 20% of causes”. Vilfredo Pareto. A POOR BUY. 2016 CARBON COMPLIANCE.

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CAN WE AFFORD ZERO CARBON HOMES?

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Can we afford zero carbon homes

LOW CARBON COMMUNITIES CONFERENCE – 13 JULY 2011

CAN WE AFFORD ZERO CARBON HOMES?

Paddy Conaghan

[email protected]


Can we afford zero carbon homes

A GOOD BUY

WHAT PARETO SAYS!

“80% of effects come from 20% of causes”.

Vilfredo Pareto

A POOR BUY


Can we afford zero carbon homes

2016 CARBON COMPLIANCE

10 – 14 kgCO2/m2 depending on dwelling type

Allowable Solutions

Carbon Compliance

On-site low/zero carbon energy

and connected heat

Energy efficiency

... But it only considers Operational Carbon


Can we afford zero carbon homes

26M

SO WHAT ARE WE DISCUSSING?

HOMES – from 2003 to 2050

22%

7M

78%

Old homes will still outweigh new ones 4:1 in 2050 – when we’re committed to cut emissions by 80%.


Can we afford zero carbon homes

WHAT IS THE WHOLE CARBON EFFECT OF POLICY?

Operational & Embodied CO2 targets for homes (ref 2004 ‘stock)

Average kgCO2/Home

Additional Cost of new homes (ref 2004 ‘stock)


Can we afford zero carbon homes

WHERE POLICY TAKES CARBON EMISSIONS FROM HOMES

Using predicted old/new housing numbers to 2050

Using 2 options for CO2 targets for new homes but doing nothing about old home stock.

HOMES – CARBON TRAJECTORY TO 2050

New homes over CfSH 4(+)have tiny effect on CO2 emissions from housing to 2050.

Old homes dominate CO2 emissions to 2050 – unless they’re ‘fixed’.

Nothing worthwhile happens with ‘heroic’ new home targets alone.


Can we afford zero carbon homes

PARETO’S LINE

COST/BENEFIT OF OUR NEW HOMES POLICY (Operational & Embodied Carbon Saved (ref 2003 Stock)

COST VERSUS CO2 SAVING FOR SUCCESSIVE MEASURES

2006-10

2016 (+)

Pre- 2003

2010-16

POOR BUY

GOOD BUY

The 2016-2050 bit of the plan is poor value. It would be far better to direct its extra costs to community solutions and kick-start retrofit


Can we afford zero carbon homes

2016 CARBON COMPLIANCE

10 – 14 kgCO2/m2 depending on dwelling type

Allowable Solutions

Carbon Compliance

On-site low/zero carbon energy

and connected heat

Energy efficiency


Can we afford zero carbon homes

2016 CARBON COMPLIANCE

Relax Carbon Compliance if new home builders fund retrofit to bring magnitudes more CO2 cuts than lost by relaxation.

Allowable Solutions

Community Energy or on-site low/zero carbon energy

Carbon Compliance

Energy efficiency


Can we afford zero carbon homes

DISCUSSION

  • Government looks to commercial developers to provide most new homes

  • 250,000 new homes/year are needed

  • Even in boom years, <170,000 homes are delivered.

  • With the surcharge for ‘zero carbon’ new homes , this delivery gap will not close.

AND….

  • The focus on new homes misses ‘the elephant in the room’ – inefficient existing homes.

  • 75% of existing homes are owner occupied.

  • Stimuli to retrofit have had small little take up. Will the Green Deal work?

  • Diverting money from carbon intensive ‘green bolt-ons’ in new homes to retrofit subsidy would produce a far greater carbon reduction and stimulate the creation of a retrofit industry.

Pareto lives!


Can we afford zero carbon homes

THE END….. THANKS

Paddy Conaghan

E: [email protected]


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