1 / 33

Thailand’s Export Opportunities and Export Potentials in ASEAN+3

Thailand’s Export Opportunities and Export Potentials in ASEAN+3. Em. Prof. Dr. Ludo Cuyvers. Let me introduce myself…. Emeritus professor University of Antwerp, Belgium Director Centre for ASEAN Studies, University of Antwerp, Belgium

selia
Download Presentation

Thailand’s Export Opportunities and Export Potentials in ASEAN+3

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Thailand’s Export Opportunities and Export Potentials in ASEAN+3 Em. Prof. Dr. Ludo Cuyvers

  2. Let me introduce myself… • Emeritus professor University of Antwerp, Belgium • Director Centre for ASEAN Studies, University of Antwerp, Belgium • Extraordinary professor, North-West University (Potchefstroom Campus), South Africa • Associate Research Fellow, United Nations University – Centre for Regional Integration Studies, Bruges, Belgium • Chairman European Institute for Asian Studies, Brussels, Belgium http://www.ua.ac.be/ludo.cuyvers Ludo.cuyvers@ua.ac.be

  3. I will talk about • The Decision Support Model (DSM) • Some DSM resultsfor Thailand in the world • The DSM resultsfor Thailand in ASEAN+3 • Comparison • Furtherdiscussion • Booklaunch

  4. The decision support model (DSM)

  5. Why? • The challenges of public export promotion today: • Deminishing returns of traditional instruments • Successes of “emergingeconomies” • Scarce resources

  6. Hence the need of: • Innovativeinstruments • Betterfocused export promotion strategies • A scientific approach

  7. ∑1,296,720 possible country-product combinations

  8. Starting from 1,296,720 possible world-wide possible export opportunities... Use filtering process to select export opportunities with the most potential ∑236 640 possible country-product combinations

  9. DSM methodology in a nutshell The DSM uses a sequential filtering process (4 filters) that will eliminate less promising export opportunities and focus on those countries and product-market combinations that show the most potential

  10. the DSMapproach Filter 1 Filter 4 Filter 3 Sequential filtering process Market accessibility Index Degree of concentration HHI Identified export opportunities Political and commercial risk assessment & Macroeconomic analysis (market potential) ONDD, GDP & GDP/capita Relative market share Final analysis of export opportunities Detecting possible export opportunities Realistic export opportunities Filter 2 Market size Classification REOs Short- and long-term growth Market characteristics

  11. Filter 1 Filter 1a: Country risk of allcountries: 32 countriesdropped 209 countries go to Filter 1b F 13 countriesdroppedduetolacking GDP and GDP per capita data Filter 1b: Country macro-economiccharacteristics: GDP and GDP per capita: 67 countries GDP and GDP/capita growth: 65 countries 106 countrieswith 545,703 HS 6 digit internationaltrade data

  12. Filter 2 Size and growth of the import markets: Filter 3 Filter 3a Filter 3b Import marketconcentration at disaggregated product level Import marketaccessability at disaggregated product level

  13. Filter 4 Categorization of REOsaccordingtorelativemarketshare of exporting country and import marketcharacteristics

  14. Some DSMresultsfor Thailand in the world

  15. Distribution of Thailand's potential realistic export opportunities in the world according to relative market position and market characteristics

  16. Thailand’s “potential” REOs per broad product category

  17. Regional distribution of Thailand’s “potential” REOs

  18. The DSM resultsfor Thailand in ASEAN+3

  19. Distribution of Thailand's potential realistic export opportunities in ASEAN+3 according to relative market position and market characteristics

  20. Distribution of Thailand's realistic export opportunities in thousand US$ in ASEAN+3 with RCA ≥ 0.7, according to relative market position and market characteristics

  21. Thailand’s REOs in ASEAN+3 per broad product category

  22. Top 10 of Thailand’s realistic export opportunities in ASEAN+3 in potential export value.

  23. Comparison of the utilisation of Thailand’sREOs in the world

  24. Somefurtherdiscussion on the use of DSM results

  25. How the DSM resultscanbefurtherused? • Export promotion strategies per REO based on Thailand’s market share per REO and of import market characteristicsper REO • Evaluation of export promotion activities • DSM for services

  26. STRATEGIES OFFENSIVE MARKET EXPANSION DEFENSIVE MARKET MAINTENANCE OFFENSIVE MARKET EXPLORATION

  27. BREAKING IN TAKING ADVANTAGE GROWING & CONSOLIDATING HOLDING THE FORT STRATEGIES LEAP-FROGGING JUMPING ON THE BANDWAGON

  28. Spearman correlation coefficients between the export promotion activities of Export Vlaanderen and all realistic export opportunities, SITC product groups (2 digit), by country (1999-2003) EVALUATION

  29. DSM FOR SERVICES

  30. Booklaunch

More Related