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Studies of columnar observations and model outputs. Brian Mapes University of Miami with thanks to many data producers and sharers. Looking under the hood of monthly mean data “points”. Time sections: f(submonthly time x pressure) a vast, rich domain

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studies of columnar observations and model outputs

Studies of columnar observations and model outputs

Brian Mapes

University of Miami

with thanks to many data producers and sharers

looking under the hood of monthly mean data points
Looking under the hood of monthly mean data “points”
  • Time sections: f(submonthly time x pressure)
    • a vast, rich domain
    • complementary to typical climate model examination space (lat x lon x months)
    • Natural domain for observations
    • Sensible domain for physical processes
shortcomings
Shortcomings
  • Free-running climate model time axis not directly comparable to observations
    • statistical comparisons of course
  • Models have climate-regime offsets in space, biasing comparisons at a fixed geo-location
    • non-meanstatistics that is
  • Submonthly variations (dynamics-driven) a poor proxy for climate sensitivity (thermo-driven)
    • tough luck, we do what we can
  • Eulerian viewpoint a perverse view of weather
    • you’re free to leave
inescapable programming tedium

standard raw plots

Common

data format,

variables,

names,

units,

flux sign

conventions,

etc.

standard stat plots

inescapable programming tedium

inescapable programming tedium
  • COARE obs
  • KWAJEX obs
  • LBA obs
  • EPIC, JASMINE
  • KWAJEX CRM
  • NCAR CAM
  • GFDL AM2
  • NASA GMAO
  • (super-CAM soon?)
  • cross-forced SCMs
  • SCAM2 driven by CAM
  • SCAM driven by AM2
datasets

All obs are from warm-wet tropics

so far - what I have & know best

Datasets
  • COARE obs
  • KWAJEX obs
  • LBA obs
  • EPIC, JASMINE
  • (more: ARM? etc?)
  • KWAJEX 3D CRM
  • NCAR CAM
  • GFDL AM2
  • NASA GMAO
  • (more: CAM-SP?)
  • cross-forced SCMs
  • SCAM2 driven by CAM
  • SCAM driven by AM2

Cloud obs rare: satellite TOA rad in

~GCM-grid areas, but cloud profiles at

only a few points (cloud radar)

the most GCM-comparable cloud dataset

Driving the whole exercise --

an AMIP, at the very least

weird experiments,

not done real carefully so far.

Future?

what variables
What variables?

CLIMATE

IMPACT

SCALAR

TOA radiation and

cloud forcing

cloud fraction and

condensed water content (p)

humidity (p)

vertical motion (p)

physical tendencies

heating and drying (p)

rain

  • COARE obs
  • KWAJEX obs
  • LBA obs
  • EPIC, JASMINE
  • KWAJEX CRM
  • NCAR CAM
  • GFDL AM2
  • NASA GMAO
  • (super-CAM soon?)
  • cross-forced SCMs
  • SCAM2 driven by CAM
  • SCAM driven by AM2

structure within tropo-sphere

SCALAR

LINK TO

HYD CYC

what plots

IFA OBS

CRF: LW+, SW-, net ~0 [obs needclear-sky assumptions]

What plots?
  • COARE IFA obs
  • KWAJEX obs
  • LBA obs
  • EPIC, JASMINE
  • KWAJEX CRM
  • NCAR CAM
  • GFDL AM2
  • NASA GMAO
  • (super-CAM soon?)
  • cross-forced SCMs
  • SCAM2 driven by CAM
  • SCAM driven by AM2

note: net <0 at rainiest times

100

RH

cld frac [ crude f(RH) here ]

%

0

rain

Q1,

CWC (no obs)

wind divergence and vertical grid

what stats

Lag regressions I: scalars vs. reference variable (here, ref = qbudget-derived IFA rain)

What stats?

TOA rad up:

  • COARE IFA obs
  • KWAJEX obs
  • LBA obs
  • EPIC, JASMINE
  • KWAJEX CRM
  • NCAR CAM
  • GFDL AM2
  • NASA GMAO
  • (super-CAM soon?)
  • cross-forced SCMs
  • SCAM2 driven by CAM
  • SCAM driven by AM2

reflected SW

net

reduced OLR

Other rain vars:

(here, other obs. estimates models, other rain types)

what stats1

~6am diurnal rain peak

regressions vs. IFA rainfall

What stats?

ocean shading*

~ -20% of latent heat in rain

  • COARE IFA obs
  • KWAJEX obs
  • LBA obs
  • EPIC, JASMINE
  • KWAJEX CRM
  • NCAR CAM
  • GFDL AM2
  • NASA GMAO
  • (super-CAM soon?)
  • cross-forced SCMs
  • SCAM2 driven by CAM
  • SCAM driven by AM2

net

longwave atm heating

~ 15% of latent heating

* straight regression incl. nocturnal zeroes - not really right approach

~1 mm/h x 1d ~24 mm rain

what stats2

II. lag-height regressions of profile fields vs. surface rain

What stats?
  • COARE obs
  • KWAJEX obs
  • LBA obs
  • EPIC, JASMINE
  • KWAJEX CRM
  • NCAR CAM
  • GFDL AM2
  • NASA GMAO
  • (super-CAM soon?)
  • cross-forced SCMs
  • SCAM2 driven by CAM
  • SCAM driven by AM2

44 km radius

“MCS-resolving”

~1/2 day

timescale

at a point

what stats3

regressions vs. surface rainfall

SYNOPTICSCALE (IFA)

What stats?
  • COARE IFA obs
  • KWAJEX obs
  • LBA obs
  • EPIC, JASMINE
  • KWAJEX CRM
  • NCAR CAM
  • GFDL AM2
  • NASA GMAO
  • (super-CAM soon?)
  • cross-forced SCMs
  • SCAM2 driven by CAM
  • SCAM driven by AM2

multiscale (incl. several-day timescales)

but no cloud profile observations

what should areal cloud statistics look like kwajex 3d crm thanks marat

TOA: obs

TOA: obs-forced CRM

condensate

can’t blow

away

What should areal cloud statistics look like? KWAJEX 3D CRMthanks Marat

4-8 units, vertical

up to 16, vertical

what stats4

regressions vs. surface rainfall - AM2

What stats?

july - 10 mm/d

TOA about balanced, long time scales

  • COARE IFA obs
  • KWAJEX obs
  • LBA obs
  • EPIC, JASMINE
  • KWAJEX CRM
  • NCAR CAM - IFA
  • GFDL AM2 - IFA
  • NASA GMAO
  • (super-CAM soon?)
  • cross-forced SCMs
  • SCAM2 driven by CAM
  • SCAM driven by AM2

layers

upward development

time jitters sometimes

zigzag layers

what stats5

AM2 - a different month

What stats?

nov - 11 mm/d

TOA closely balanced, long time scale

  • COARE IFA obs
  • KWAJEX obs
  • LBA obs
  • EPIC, JASMINE
  • KWAJEX CRM
  • NCAR CAM - IFA
  • GFDL AM2 - IFA
  • NASA GMAO
  • (super-CAM soon?)
  • cross-forced SCMs
  • SCAM2 driven by CAM
  • SCAM driven by AM2

slow upward development

zigzag layers

what stats6

regressions vs. surface rainfall - CAM

What stats?

jan - 7 mm/d

CRF not well linked to rain events

  • COARE IFA obs
  • KWAJEX obs
  • LBA obs
  • EPIC, JASMINE
  • KWAJEX CRM
  • NCAR CAM - IFA
  • GFDL AM2
  • NASA GMAO
  • (super-CAM soon?)
  • cross-forced SCMs
  • SCAM2 driven by CAM
  • SCAM driven by AM2

3-day waves

vertical thanks to ‘convective’ fraction but…

…condensed water not coherent in vertical

what stats7

regressions vs. surface rainfall - GMAO

What stats?

a bit stark but about like IFA

  • COARE IFA obs
  • KWAJEX obs
  • LBA obs
  • EPIC, JASMINE
  • KWAJEX CRM
  • NCAR CAM - IFA
  • GFDL AM2 - IFA
  • GMAO 140E/8N July
  • (super-CAM soon?)
  • cross-forced SCMs
  • SCAM2 driven by CAM
  • SCAM driven by AM2

upward development, zigzag layers

2xKwajCRM ice content

freezing level schism

but are these brief rain event fluctuations a climate process
But are these brief rain-event fluctuations a Climate Process?
  • hypothesis

Divergence profile in tropical rain events

linked to profile of divergent winds

linked to profile of total winds?

( -> coupling issues…climate by any standard)

? Let’s look

slide21

GMAO

CAM

IFA

AM2

All 3 GCMs have

unrealistic

surface-intensified

div fluctuations

Top- stats of div regression sections (lag-height) Bottom- stats of total wind speed (time-height)each curve shows 1 month of data

mean

stdev w/in 6-day lag section

GMAO-midlevel swoop

mean

CAM-jangly wind profiles

stdev

but no near- surface

enhancement of

wind fluctuations

KWAJEX is

3rd line; LBA 4

1000 vs 850 not right

wind profile results
wind profile results
  • hypothesis too simplistic
  • BUT
    • Systematic windspeed profile differences from observations are clear at low levels!
regressions wrt toa crf events
Regressions wrt TOA CRF “events”?
  • Weird idea: submonthly TOA CRF has ~no feedback to the weather that causes it, so there’s less expectation of a repeatable “life cycle”
  • Proxy for climate sensitivities?
    • ? Maybe, if tau << {days, years, decades, etc.} ?
  • Anyway, try it (but I have no obs yet)
    • use 24h smoothing to kill diurnal cycle
24h smoothed toa crf as base time series cam 85w 20s

SWup>0

Whiter w/clouds at 975 not 925

24h-smoothed TOA -CRF as base time series -- CAM 85W 20S

CRF<0, big slow changes

am2 85w 20s whiteness varies little regression structure not stable
AM2 - 85W 20S whiteness varies little; regression structure not stable

steady -30ish CRF

PBL-based clouds rise to ~550mb here !?

Minghua’s AM2 “midlevel” cloud (ISCCP)

(Q1 data missing)

cross forced scms cam am2
Cross-forced SCMs (CAM <-> AM2)
  • V. advection of SCM fields by prescribed vertical velocity from other GCM
  • H. advection prescribed (non-interactive)
  • Look at LBA (Amazon) just for fun
lba obs via minghua s shop gcms
LBA obs (via Minghua’s shop), & GCMs

LBA obs

CAM

AM2

(warning: clear sky not careful)

(sorry: Q1 missing)

slide29

LBA obs

CAM

AM2

lba models
LBA models

SCAM driven by AM2

omega

CAM

AM2

Cloud style CAMlike

lba models1
LBA models

SCAM2 driven by CAM

omega

CAM

AM2

Cloud style AM2 ish

future plans team efforts

standard raw plots

Web

standard stat plots

MORE DATA

in (p,t) space

SCMs! CRMs!

EXPERIMENTS!

OBS!

other people

Future plans - team efforts?
  • COARE obs
  • KWAJEX obs
  • LBA obs
  • EPIC, JASMINE
  • KWAJEX CRM
  • NCAR CAM
  • GFDL AM2
  • NASA GMAO
  • (super-CAM soon?)
  • cross-forced SCMs
  • SCAM2 driven by CAM
  • SCAM driven by AM2

Common

data format,

variables,

names,

units,

sign

conventions

clickable from Bony index plot

co-ra.com/~bem

more to come

publication strategy?

informing param\'z\'n?

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