'Forecast uncertainty' presentation slideshows

Standard Verification Strategies Proposal from NWS Verification Team

Standard Verification Strategies Proposal from NWS Verification Team . NWS Verification Team Draft 03/23/2009. These slides include notes, which can be expanded with your feedback. Overview. Verification goals Key metrics and products for goal #1: How good are the forecasts?

631 views • 47 slides

NCAR Societal Impacts Program (SIP) Research Integrating Social Science and Meteorology

671 views • 41 slides

January 23, 2008 AMS Annual Meeting

Town Hall. AMS Commission on the Weather and Climate Enterprise Board on Enterprise Communication Ad Hoc Committee on Uncertainty in Forecasts (ACUF). January 23, 2008 AMS Annual Meeting. Welcome and Introduction George Frederick, CWCE Commissioner.

527 views • 39 slides

R.11-10-023: RA Flexibility Workshop Flexible Capacity Procurement Proposal

381 views • 38 slides

Integrating Convective Weather Forecasts with the Traffic Management Advisor (TMA)

Integrating Convective Weather Forecasts with the Traffic Management Advisor (TMA). Jim Stobie and Bob Gillen, ENSCO, Inc. Wade Lester, Embry Riddle Aeronautical University. Integrated Airport Initiative (Florida NextGen Demonstration).

518 views • 32 slides

Storm Surge Modeling and Forecasting

Storm Surge Modeling and Forecasting. LTJG Jeffrey Pereira, NOAA Storm Surge Unit National Hurricane Center NOAA Storm Surge Workshop May 2011. Statistical Utilize historical data to develop statistical relationships between surge and driving factors Necessary data is non-existent

316 views • 31 slides

Communicating Weather Forecast Uncertainty Information

379 views • 29 slides

MIW METOC Metrics: Ops Analysis

MIW METOC Metrics: Ops Analysis. Tom Murphree and David Meyer Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) murphree@nps.edu Bruce Ford and Manuel Avila Clear Science, Inc. (CSI) bruce@clearscienceinc.com Paul Vodola, Matt McNamara, Luke Piepkorn, and Ed Weitzner Systems Planning and Analysis (SPA)

562 views • 27 slides

The Warning Decision Training Branch Souper Computer or Building Ensembles in a Bottle

316 views • 25 slides

PREDICTING PREDICTABILITY

Zoltan Toth Environmental Modeling Center NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Ackn.: Yuejian Zhu (1) , Richard Wobus (1) , Mozheng Wei (2) (1) : SAIC at NCEP/EMC, Washington, US (www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov) (2) : UCAR Visiting Scientist, NCEP/EMC, Washington, US http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/index.html.

403 views • 24 slides

Josh Korotky NOAA/WFO Pittsburgh NROW Nov 1, 2005

"Far and away the best . . .". Predictability and Extended Range Forecasting. Forecast with. 100% accuracy!. A Reference. (Disclamer: This is impossible). for the. Rest of Us!. Josh Korotky SOO. WFO PBZ. Edward Lorenz. Josh Korotky NOAA/WFO Pittsburgh NROW Nov 1, 2005.

314 views • 21 slides

Tom Hamill for Paul Hirschberg and Elliot Abrams, Co-Chairs

AMS Ad Hoc Committee on Uncertainty in Forecasts (ACUF). Update on Enterprise Strategic Implementation Plan for Generating and Communicating Forecast Uncertainty. Tom Hamill for Paul Hirschberg and Elliot Abrams, Co-Chairs 17 September 2009, NCAR Mesoscale Ensemble Workshop.

363 views • 20 slides

COMPLETING THE FORECAST: ASSESSING AND COMMUNICATING FORECAST UNCERTAINTY

Zoltan Toth Environmental Modeling Center NOAA/NWS/NCEP Acknowledgements: NRC Report; Louis Uccellini, Steve Lord & Ensemble Team http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/index.html. COMPLETING THE FORECAST: ASSESSING AND COMMUNICATING FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. OUTLINE / SUMMARY.

357 views • 20 slides

National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC) Status Brief for ESMF Steven Payne

NUOPC. National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC) Status Brief for ESMF Steven Payne . December 17, 2008. Potential Benefits. A National System to focus on National Needs Accelerated improvement of a National Weather Operational Prediction Capability Forecast Accuracy

374 views • 18 slides

New Training Course on Use of NWP in Forecast Operations

New Training Course on Use of NWP in Forecast Operations. William R. Bua Stephen D. Jascourt* UCAR/COMET *presenter. Outline. Existing COMET NWP Training NWP Training Needs for Forecasters Course Design Course Content Overview Conclusion. Existing COMET NWP Training.

278 views • 16 slides

NOAA/NWS Forecast Uncertainty Service Evolution (NFUSE) Steering Team

Briefing to Operations Committee. NOAA/NWS Forecast Uncertainty Service Evolution (NFUSE) Steering Team. Paul Hirschberg April 18, 2007. Outline. Purpose Issue Background Discussion Alternatives Recommendation. Purpose. Decision:

264 views • 15 slides

Acknowledgements: - NOAA HFIP, NCEP/EMC - JCSDA/NESDIS - NASA PMM

221 views • 13 slides

Andrew W. Wood and Dennis P. Lettenmaier

1. ESP forecast. The simulation domain,the western U.S., was divided into 5 river basins: Columbia R. (CRB), Sacramento-San Joaquin R. (SSJB), Great Basin (GB), Colorado R. (CORB) and Upper Rio Grande R. (RGB). A retrospective 21 year period was chosen for the analysis, 1979-99.

87 views • 1 slides