'Forecast probability' presentation slideshows

595 views • 59 slides

EPS Diagnostic Tools

EPS Diagnostic Tools. Renate Hagedorn European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. A forecast has skill if it predicts the observed conditions well according to some objective or subjective criteria.

584 views • 44 slides

Verification of ensemble systems

Verification of ensemble systems. Chiara Marsigli ARPA-SIM. Deterministic forecasts. Event E (dichotomous event) e.g.: the precipitation cumulated over 24 hours at a given location (raingauge, radar pixel, hydrological basin, area) exceeds 20 mm. no o(E) = 0. yes o(E) = 1.

528 views • 44 slides

Forecast verification - did we get it right?

418 views • 33 slides

The Assessment of Seasonal Forecast Skills from the Canadian HFP

Outline. Introduction Model and Data Results ? Deterministic skills ? Probabilistic skills 4. Summary . The Assessment of Seasonal Forecast Skills from the Canadian HFP. Q. Teng 1 , S. Kharin 1 , F. Zwiers 1 and X. Zhang 2.

270 views • 18 slides

Aaron Johnson and Xuguang Wang

Verification and calibration of probabilistic precipitation forecasts derived from neighborhood and object based methods for a convection-allowing ensemble. Aaron Johnson and Xuguang Wang School of Meteorology and Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms

323 views • 18 slides

Linear probability score (LPS)

Linear probability score (LPS). Based on: Guidance on Verification of Operational Seasonal Climate Forecasts By Simon J. Mason (IRI), prepared under the auspices of the World Meteorological

57 views • 5 slides