Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480)

Climate Change: The Move to Action(AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood Winter 2014 January 21, 2014

Class News • Ctools site: AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W14 • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change • IPCC (2007) Working Group 1: Summary for Policy Makers • IPCC (2013) Working Group 1: Summary for Policy Makers • Seminars this week • January 21: Jigar Shah, Creating Climate Wealth: Unlocking the Impact Economy: Tuesday 4:45-5:30pm, Ross School of Business, (6th Floor Colloquium Room) • January 23: Jennifer Francis: Rapid Arctic warming and extreme weather events in mid-latitudes: Are they connected? Thursday, 3:30 – 4:30 pm AOSS, Space Research Building, Room 2246 Politics of Dismissal Entry Uncertainty Description Model

First Reading Response • IPCC (2013) Working Group 1: Summary for Policy Makers • Reading responses of roughly one page (single-spaced). The responses do not need to be elaborate, but they should also not simply summarize the reading. They should be used by you to refine your questions and to improve your insight into climate change. • They should be submitted via CTools by next Tuesday and we will use them to guide discussion in class on Thursday. Assignment posted with some questions to guide responses.

While we are waiting • First home work, that “Polar Vortex” thing. • Fewer Frigid Nights from Climate Central • Warming Winters from Climate Central

This lecture: • We will deconstruct (“reduce”) Economic success, Consumption, Energy, Population to think about paths for addressing climate change • Start the science-based deconstruction of climate science • Earth-Sun balance • Past climate • 100,000s of years • 1000 years • Carbon dioxide balance

Climate Change Relationships • Consumption // Population // Energy ENERGY CLIMATE CHANGE POPULATION SOCIETAL SUCCESS CONSUMPTION

Societal Success and Energy Societal Success Low High High High This is what we know. Energy Low Low High Low

Energy and Economic Success What countries are missing from this figure? What has changed since 2005? The Bottomless Well: Huber and Mills (2005)

Societal Success and Consumption Societal Success Low High High High High consumption is damaging. Consumption Low Low High Low

Population and Consumption Population Low High High High • This is not likely in our lifetime. • Past CO2 emissions by small population This is perilous and our path. Consumption Low Low High Low

Energy and Consumption Energy Low High High High This is perilous and our path. Consumption Low Low High Low

This thought model leads to • Economic success needs to be decoupled from • Consumption, Energy Use • Consumption needs to be decoupled from energy use. • Energy use needs to be decoupled from CO2 emissions to mitigate warming. • High population, high consumption, high energy use is not sustainable. • Have not considered other resources and other pollutants.

Climate Change Relationships • Climate change is linked to consumption. • The economy depends on us consuming • Consuming generates the waste that causes climate change. • The consumption that has set us on this road of global warming has been by a relatively small percentage of the population. • Wealth is an important variable. • Hence, social equity is an issue.

Solution Space: For Warming Problem • Our current behavior suggests the most desired solution is high energy, high consumption, which leads to the need for energy use to not pollute. • Don’t forget about water. (And a myriad of other resources and sources of pollution.)

Some challenges • If it was not clear when you woke up this morning, climate change touches every element of society. • It sits in relationship with some other fundamental societal challenges. • Solutions will be required to infiltrate all elements of society. • What sort of things scale to all society?

Scientific Method and Earth’s Climate • We will first break the scientific investigation down into pieces. • Theory … Draw a Picture • Observations • Prediction • Attribution • Impacts • We will look at the links of climate change to the other parts of the problem. • There is not a simple “solution;” we will not solve this problem and walk away from it. • We will be required to manage the climate • We will define ways forward.

Scientific investigation of Earth’s climate SUN: ENERGY, HEAT EARTH: ABSORBS ENERGY EARTH: EMITS ENERGY TO SPACE  BALANCE

Scientific investigation of Earth’s climate SUN EARTH PLACE AN INSULATING BLANKET AROUND EARTH The addition to the blanket is CO2 FOCUS ON WHAT IS HAPPENING AT THE SURFACE EARTH: EMITS ENERGY TO SPACE  BALANCE

Increase of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Primary increase comes from burning fossil fuels – coal, oil, natural gas Data and more information

Web links to some CO2 data • NOAA/ESRL Global Monitoring Division • Carbon Cycle Greenhouse Gas • Mauna Loa Carbon Dioxide • Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center • Recent Greenhouse Gas Concentrations • NOAA/PMEL CO2 and Ocean

Let’s look to the past • This is called “paleoclimatology.” • NOAA’s Paleoclimatology Branch • Ice Core Portal • Vostok Data • Petit, Nature, 1999 • Koshland Science Museum

Times of low temperature have glaciers, ice ages (CO2 <~ 200 ppm) • Times of high temperature associated with CO2 of < 300 ppm Bubbles of gas trapped in layers of ice give a measure of temperature and carbon dioxide 350,000 years of Surface Temperature and Carbon Dioxide (CO2) at Vostok, Antarctica ice cores This has been extended back to > 700,000 years • During this period, temperature and CO2 are closely related to each other

It’s been about 20,000 years since the end of the last ice age • There has been less than 10,000 years of history “recorded” by humans (and it has been relatively warm) Bubbles of gas trapped in layers of ice give a measure of temperature and carbon dioxide 350,000 years of Surface Temperature and Carbon Dioxide (CO2) at Vostok, Antarctica ice cores • During this period, temperature and CO2 are closely related to each other

CO2 2100 460 ppm So what are we worried about? CO2 2010 390 ppm 350,000 years of Surface Temperature and Carbon Dioxide (CO2) at Vostok, Antarctica ice cores • Carbon dioxide is, because of our emissions, much higher than ever experienced by human kind • Temperature is expected to follow • New regimes of climate behavior? • Humans are adapted to current climate behavior. • The change is expected to happen rapidly (10 -100 years, not 1000’s)

We have gone through those figures fast • But professor  !!!!!!!! • The carbon dioxide and temperature sometimes DO NOT seem perfectly related. In the past the temperature increase started before the carbon dioxide increase. • It’s pretty clear that an ice age is on the way. The climate is clearly periodic, and there is nothing we can do about it.

CO2 2100 460 ppm Are we saving civilization? CO2 2005 360 ppm 350,000 years of Surface Temperature and Carbon Dioxide (CO2) at Vostok, Antarctica ice cores • If the normal pattern were to continue, without additional carbon dioxide, what would we expect?

Global cooling? Why do we think that our predictions today are more robust than these predictions from the 1970s?

Thinking about these figures and ice ages • Correlations • Cause and effect • Scientific method

From the Ice Core Data: Questions? • We see a relationship between carbon dioxide (CO2) and Temperature (T) • What is the cause and effect? • Why do we bounce between these two regimes? • Dynamic equilibrium? • Are these oscillations forced in some way by an external force? • Are there other parameters or attributes which are correlated with this behavior? • What is different from the stock market, where “past behavior does not indicate future performance?”

Let’s Look at the past 1000 years • We have more sources of observations. • We have better observations. • We have public records and literature and natural history.

Medieval warm period • “Little ice age” • Temperature starts to follow CO2 as CO2 increases beyond approximately 300 ppm, the value seen in the previous graph as the upper range of variability in the past 350,000 years. Let’s look at just the last 1000 years Surface temperature and CO2 data from the past 1000 years. Temperature is a northern hemisphere average. Temperature from several types of measurements are consistent in temporal behavior.

Let’s look at just the last 1000 years Surface temperature and CO2 data from the past 1000 years. Temperature is a northern hemisphere average. Temperature from several types of measurements are consistent in temporal behavior. { Note that on this scale, with more time resolution, that the fluctuations in temperature and the fluctuations in CO2 do not match as obviously as in the long, 350,000 year, record. What is the cause of the temperature variability? Can we identify mechanisms, cause and effect? How?

What do we see from the past 1000 years • On shorter time scales the CO2 and T are not as cleanly related. • Periods on noted warmth and coolness are separated by changes in average temperature of only 0.5 F. • Changes of average temperature on this scale seem to matter to people. • Regional changes, extremes? • Recent changes in both T and CO2 are unprecedented in the past several hundred thousands of years. • And the last 10,000 years, which is when humans have thrived in the way that we have thrived.

Increase of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Primary increase comes from burning fossil fuels – coal, oil, natural gas Data and more information

What about the CO2 increase? Concept of “stabilization” CO2 now Stabilization as we have thought about it in the past may not be possible.

What are the mechanisms for production and loss of CO2? Important things in this figure.

What are the mechanisms for production and loss of CO2? Enormous amount of carbon dioxide in the ocean.

What are the mechanisms for production and loss of CO2? -2 Exchange of carbon dioxide between atmosphere and ocean ocean.

What are the mechanisms for production and loss of CO2? Large amount of carbon dioxide in the “soil” and plants

What are the mechanisms for production and loss of CO2? -1 Exchange of carbon dioxide between atmosphere and “land.”

What are the mechanisms for production and loss of CO2? Large amount of carbon dioxide in coal, oil, gas

What are the mechanisms for production and loss of CO2? Hundreds of Years +5.5 Movement of carbon dioxide by burning Millions of Years

What are the mechanisms for production and loss of CO2? +1 Movement of carbon dioxide by land use changes

Were you counting? • Net sources into the atmosphere • Net removal from the atmosphere 5.5 + 1 = 6.5 2+1 = 3

About carbon dioxide (CO2) • CO2 is increasing in the atmosphere and the oceans. • In ocean transfer of CO2 between CO2 and calcium carbonate and carbonic acid • Currently flux of CO2 from the atmosphere to the ocean and land, but the flux is both ways and the sign can change. Especially if the ocean gets warmer.

This lecture and the next • In this lecture: • We did an initial analysis of Economic success, Consumption, Energy, Population to think about paths for addressing climate change • Introduced the Earth-Sun balance, and will return to this frequently • Discussed the past few 100,000 years and relation between CO2 and temperature • Discussed the balance of carbon dioxide • In the next lecture • Discussion of IPCC reading • Underlying principles of conservation

Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480)