1 / 20

EVALUATING HOW AN AGENCY EXERCISES FORESIGHT….

EVALUATING HOW AN AGENCY EXERCISES FORESIGHT…. High-Clockspeed Technology-Based Trends * Judith A. Droitcour, Ph.D. U.S. Government Accountability Office Contact: droitcourj@gao.gov Presented at Evaluation 2009

scottbailey
Download Presentation

EVALUATING HOW AN AGENCY EXERCISES FORESIGHT….

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. EVALUATING HOW AN AGENCY EXERCISES FORESIGHT…. High-Clockspeed Technology-Based Trends* Judith A. Droitcour, Ph.D. U.S. Government Accountability Office Contact: droitcourj@gao.gov Presented at Evaluation 2009 Panel: Prospective Evaluation and Technology: New Developments and 21st Century Challenges November 13, 2009 *Based in part on GAO, HIGHWAY SAFETY: Foresight Issues Challenge DOT’s Efforts to Assess and Respond to New Technology-Based Trends, October 2008 (GAO-09-56). The views expressed in this presentation do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Government Accountability Office.

  2. TECHNOLOGY-BASED TRENDS:Key Phases -- Innovation Cycle

  3. TECHNOLOGY-BASED TRENDS CAN IMPACT AGENCY GOALS

  4. PORTABLE ELECTRONIC DEVICES, LIKE CELL PHONES

  5. SIDE EFFECT: IMPACTS DOT’s/ NHTSA’S HIGHWAY SAFETY GOAL

  6. CLOCKSPEED:Can an agency keep pace with a fast-paced technology-based trend?(organizational clockspeed = rate at which an organization introduces new products, adopts new production processes, or reorganizes itself; Sources: Charles H. Fine, 1998; David W. Rejeski, 2003)

  7. STILL-EVOLVING INNOVATIONS:e.g., visual component (experts don’t see tech. slowing down) Source: Prof. Babak A. Parviz, University of Washington

  8. COMMERCIALIZATION, CONSUMER ADOPTION:fast-evolving trend over the past decade • dates of wide-availability • PDAs late 1990s • hands-free phones (no wire to ear) ~ 2003 • GPS and cameras on phones ~ 2004 • newest cell phones • have streaming TV, video-calling • have internet access • are replaced every 17 months • text messages numbered • 14 million/mo. 2000 • 18+billion/mo. 2006 • 120+ billion/mo. 2009*

  9. COMBINING INNOVATIONS, USES, SIDE EFFECTS:road-phoning devices

  10. GAO EVALUATION (2008) When faced with an evolving trend that can affect key goals, agencies may “exercise foresight” by….

  11. 1. DECIDING/RESPONDING:Evidence-Governance Options Framework

  12. NHTSA: DECIDING/RESPONDINGelectronic driver distractions--2008

  13. 2. DEVELOPING EVIDENCE:Criteria for selecting methods to assess impact of high-clockspeed trend • Technically adequate • Timely • Capable of being repeated over time (relatively frequently, i.e., non-costly) …..as we found for NHTSA and new distractins, it can be difficult to meet all three

  14. 3. COMMUNICATING Two key attributes • Comprehensiveness re: relevant trends • Timeliness ….. as of 2008 DOT had not included new driver distractions in key reports to the Hill

  15. GAO’S RECOMMENDATIONS re: high-clockspeed trends affecting safety 1. deciding/responding anticipatory risk management…* or adaptive strategies, weigh old vs new, etc. 2. developing evidence potentially, use newest technology 3. communicating more complete, timely communications

  16. POSTSCRIPT: FALL 2009 deciding/responding DOT took some key steps….re: banning developing evidence NHTSA developing new research plan communicating DOT’s driver distraction summit, included Hill and other stakeholders

  17. THANK YOU

  18. 2ndTECHNOLOGY-BASED TREND:in-vehicle crash-avoidance tech’s

  19. DOT/NHTSA: IN-VEHICLE CRASH-AVOIDANCE TECHNOLOGIES deciding/responding expand NCAP* program (include crash-avoidance info’) developing evidence encountered difficulties getting highest level evidence that is timely communicating considerable communication *NCAP = New Car Assessment Program (earlier sole focus: crash-worthiness)

  20. FORESIGHT FRAMEWORKWhen faced with an evolving trend that can affect key goals, agencies may “exercise foresight” by….

More Related