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Marc Lusk Amarillo Fire Department

Stress, Fear, and Panic: Decision-Making in Dynamic, High-Risk Environments. Marc Lusk Amarillo Fire Department. Presentation Goal:. “… a better understanding of how stress, fear, and panic combine to erode rational thinking ” - Putnam. The Precipitation:.

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Marc Lusk Amarillo Fire Department

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  1. Stress, Fear, and Panic:Decision-Making in Dynamic,High-Risk Environments Marc Lusk Amarillo Fire Department

  2. Presentation Goal: “… a better understanding of how stress, fear, and panic combine to erode rational thinking” - Putnam

  3. The Precipitation: “I knew I was in trouble. I thought about using my radio, but I thought, I found my way in; I can find my way out.” - Hospitalized Seattle Firefighter “The reality of our [fire service] culture is very simple… we hire aggressive firefighters…” - Kreis

  4. Civilian Reactions: Station Nightclub Fire :54 seconds - Cameraman leaves Lobby “…numerous people whowere not moving and were still watching the stage” - Interviewed Survivor

  5. Wildland FF Reactions: “…the twelve firefighters did not at first hike at maximum speed…. everyone failed to recognize early enough the danger of the situation.” - Maclean

  6. Factors Affecting Decisions: Risk perception Stressors Cognitive Biases Affect Heuristics (Emotions) Experience

  7. Risk Propensity: • Self-control • Danger-seeking • Energy • Impulsiveness • Invincibility

  8. Risk Perception : “Each decision maker has… a unique set of resulting behaviors” - Williams 900 ft.

  9. Risk Perception : Invincibility - A Wonderful Thing

  10. “… keep a 2-mile "buffer zone" between you and the storm.” - NWS Risk Perception :

  11. How many telephone posts are there in two miles? Risk Perception :

  12. Risk vs. Policy: Violations Will Occur: • Commercial Pilots: 27% of accidents • Ambulance Drivers: Black boxes • Firefighters: More frequent and severe injuries

  13. Factors Affecting Decisions: Risk perception Stressors Cognitive Biases Affect Heuristics (Emotions) Experience

  14. Multiple Info Sources Conflicting Info Stressors: Rapidly Evolving Situation Time Pressure Threat http://sanderling.files.wordpress.com/2009/01/uss_vincennes2.jpg USS Vincennes

  15. Complex decisions must be made despite time pressure, uncertainty, external threat, and physical hardships. O’Fallon, Illinois

  16. Reduce opportunity to gather information Police Officer: Shoot/No Shoot Situation Disrupt working memory My Mother-In-Law Distract attention from the operational goals A-10 and F-16 Mishaps Stressors: Stressors Affect Decisions:

  17. Factors Affecting Decisions: Risk perception Stressors Cognitive Biases Affect Heuristics (Emotions) Experience

  18. Crowded rooms during Decision-Making Presentations – The Exits Airline Passengers – The Exits Nuclear Power Plant Operators – Procedures Availability Bias: Recollection of Information:

  19. Representativeness Bias: Categorizing: Underground Miners “… did not select the most efficient strategy - they chose further information over action”

  20. Representativeness Bias: Does a Near-miss make a person more cautious or less cautious the next time?

  21. Representativeness Bias: Near-Misses: Mars Rover Operators “… categorized the current [similar] circumstances as beingsurvivable”

  22. Anchor and Adjustment Bias: Making an Initial Decision and Sticking To It : Air Florida Flight 90 - 78 fatalities

  23. Overconfidence Biases: Illusory Optimism Invulnerability Illusion

  24. Framing Bias: • Complacency • 7 of 9 mishaps involving C-130 aircraft • Expectations • USS Vincennes – gunboat skirmishes • Commercial Pilots • Keeping schedules vs. pre-flight checklist

  25. Firefighters Are Human Too: “I knew I was in trouble. I thought about using my radio, but I thought, I found my way in; I can find my way out.” - Seattle Firefighter Representativeness Anchor and Adjustment Illusory Optimism Invulnerability Illusion

  26. People Are Human Too:

  27. Factors Affecting Decisions: Risk perception Stressors Cognitive Biases Emotions Experience

  28. Emotional Reactions: Situations are felt to be Good or Bad Denial Anxiety A generalized condition w/o direct trigger Panic: A sudden fear which dominates/replaces thinking

  29. Physical Reactions: Pupils dilate Muscles tighten Heart-rate/Breathing increases Blood is shunted Oxygen/Nutrients Heat (Perspiration) “Fight or Flight” Response

  30. Impairments: Fine Motor Skills Temporal Distortion Memory Disruption Channeled Attention

  31. Emotional Reaction: “People lose their ability to make decisions. They turn into statues.” - Sherwood MS Estonia

  32. Emotions: "I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer." --- Frank Herbert, Dune

  33. Fear and the Amygdala: • Thalamic Pathway • The Low Road • Cortical Pathway • The High Road A Walk in the Woods

  34. Leach’s“Theory of 10-80-10” 10% will react Rationally • Relatively Calm • Decision-making is sharp and focused • Able to prioritize, plan, and take action

  35. Leach’s“Theory of 10-80-10” 80% will be “Stunned and Bewildered” • Behavior is mechanical, reflexive • Reasoning is significantly impaired • Perceptual narrowing (tunnel vision)

  36. Leach’s“Theory of 10-80-10” 10% will react Inappropriately: • Loss of behavioral control • Decision-making is counterproductive

  37. Factors Affecting Decisions: Risk perception Stressors Cognitive Biases Emotions Experience

  38. Recognition-Primed Decision-Making: • Naturalistic • Efficiency • Trigger points • Reduces cognitive load

  39. Recognition-Primed Decision-Making: The Problem is - How many times do we experience a true emergency? Kevin Green/News-Journal Photo

  40. Flipping the Switch: Theory of 10/80/10: Most will be stunned Temporary effect Seek calmness Plan for emergencies

  41. Experience: • Novices have difficulty gathering, integrating, and understanding informational cues • Improves knowledge of performance needed • Develops a better understanding of how stressors, biases, and emotions impact decisions

  42. Education: “You rarely get someone to jump a skill level by teaching more facts and rules…. we cannot expect to grow instant experts” - Williams

  43. Training: “familiarity with the criterion environment…. effective task performance under stress conditions” - Driskell and Johnston

  44. Experience: Variety of experience is more important than simple years of service.

  45. Mentoring: “to enhance the development of perceptual expertise in the trainees” - Klein Train Your Mentors:

  46. Leadership: “…individuals respond well to a leader, however, if leadership is lacking, people tend to become confused.” - Kowalski-Trakofler and Vaught. MS Estonia

  47. Training and Experience: Risk perception can be modified, Stressors can be mitigated, Biases can be minimized, Emotionscan be mastered.

  48. Your Turn: Questions?

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