Hurricane wave and surge modeling for pacific islands
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Hurricane Wave and Surge Modeling for Pacific Islands. Jane McKee Smith US Army Engineer Research & Development Center Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory Vicksburg, Mississippi, USA. Introduction. Island communities are vulnerable to storms Nowhere to evacuate

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Hurricane wave and surge modeling for pacific islands

Hurricane Wave and Surge Modeling for Pacific Islands

Jane McKee Smith

US Army Engineer Research & Development Center

Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory

Vicksburg, Mississippi, USA


Introduction

Introduction

  • Island communities are vulnerable to storms

    • Nowhere to evacuate

    • Infrastructure within hazard zone

    • Unique/Important Island Features & Physics

      • Steep slopes

      • Reef roughness

      • Reef flat dynamics (ponding, wave reformation)

      • Importance of waves

      • Growth of long waves


Pacific islands land ocean typhoon pilot exp surge wave island modeling studies swims

Pacific Islands Land-Ocean Typhoon (PILOT) Exp. Surge & Wave Island Modeling Studies (SWIMS)

  • Objectives:

  • Collect coastal processes data under typhoon and high-wave conditions in island environments

  • Improve model physics and tool for island application for emergency management and design

Products

  • Field data sets:

    • Guam

    • Saipan

    • Oahu, Hawaii

    • St. Croix, VI

  • Laboratory Data Sets (2D/3D)

  • Model Improvements

  • Fast Forecasting System

Hurricane Iniki,


Hurricane wave and surge modeling for pacific islands

  • SWIMS Fast Forecasting System

    • Pre-run storms with high-fidelity models

      • ADCIRC

      • unSWAN

      • BOUSS-1D

    • Create database of response

    • Develop surrogate model to forecast inundation

      • Deterministic

      • Probabilistic

  • Hurricane Evacuation Studies Mass Management System

    • Interface for Emergency Managers (MMS)

  • Team: ERDC, University of Notre Dame, University of Hawaii, and Honolulu District


Hurricane wave and surge modeling for pacific islands

HAKOU-2010-r02 Model

  • Domain incorporates Hawaiian Islands and north central Pacific Ocean

  • Grid resolution ranges from 30 m on land and in the nearshore to 5000 m in deep water

  • Fully incorporates high resolution features, channels, coral reefs and wave breaking zones

  • 1,590,637 nodes, 3,527,785 elements


Hurricane wave and surge modeling for pacific islands

5 Parameters:

Landfall location xo

Angle of approach a

Central pressure cp (hurricane intensity)

Forward speed vf

Radius of maximum winds Rmax

Hurricane Characterization

xo

a


Hurricane wave and surge modeling for pacific islands

Basis storm tracks

  • Five base storm tracks determined from hurricane climatology in communication with the NWS

  • Tracks and hurricane parameters are varied to give a matrix of potential storms that will bound most possible landfall scenarios in Oahu

Base storm tracks for Oahu landfall. These are shifted to give different landfall locations.


Hurricane wave and surge modeling for pacific islands

Pre-run and store suite of basis hurricane scenarios that cover expected range of future events

Based on basis scenarios predict the output for any new hurricane scenario (i.e., create a surrogate model)

Prediction of Hurricane Output for New Scenario

Basis hurricane scenarios

New hurricane scenario


Hurricane wave and surge modeling for pacific islands

Comparison of Hurricane Output Predictions

High-fidelity model predictions

Surrogate model predictions


Hurricane wave and surge modeling for pacific islands

Uncertainty in all hurricane parameters (described by probability models)

Use the surrogate model to predict

Deterministic scenario

Average (expected) output

Output with certain probability of being exceeded

Probability (%) of exceeding a specific threshold

Probabilistic Prediction of Hurricane Output (Risk)

Current hurricane location

Expected hurricane track

Cone of potential tracks


Hurricane wave and surge modeling for pacific islands

Graphical User Interface


Areas of collaboration

Areas of Collaboration

  • Gain efficiencies by sharing methods, data, and results (NWS, PDC, local groups), but FEMA, …

  • Standardize models & methods ~ best practices

    • Process models & modeling

    • Probability models

  • Common outputs/definitions (EM)

    • Exceedence percentages

    • Durations and recession times

    • Inundation (SWL, x% runup)

  • Inland wave propagation problem

  • Speak with a unified voice across Fed agencies

    • What to do and how to do it


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