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NAMIBIA’S. Ministry of Environment and Tourism Government of the Republic of Namibia. I&FF Assessments. United Nations Development Programme. Summary of Vulnerability Assessment & Farming System Change under the Second National Communication to the UNFCCC.

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NAMIBIA’S

Ministry of Environment and Tourism

Government of the Republic of Namibia

I&FF Assessments

United Nations Development Programme

Summary of Vulnerability Assessment & Farming System Change under the Second National Communication to the UNFCCC

1 recent namibian climate change studies and findings
1. Recent Namibian Climate Change Studies and Findings

Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Namibia (DRFN, 2008)

  • Provides information on climate change in Namibia based on quantitative models.
  • Makes forecasts of the expected changes in temperature and rainfall, and the future impacts of climate change

(courtesy of MET)

The effects of flooding in the Northern Namibia, 2009

(courtesy of Die Republikein)

1 recent namibian climate change studies and findings1
1. Recent Namibian Climate Change Studies and Findings

Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Namibia (continued)

  • Predicted climate changes:
  • Averages temperatures will rise 1oC – 3.5oC during summer and 1oC – 3.5oC during winter by 2046-2065
  • In north and central regions, the rainy season will begin later and end earlier, with an increase in rainfall intensity
  • Annual rainfall will become more variable, and there will more frequent occurrences of drought and flooding
  • Evaporation and evapotranspiration will increase 5-15%
1 recent namibian climate change studies and findings2
1. Recent Namibian Climate Change Studies and Findings

Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Namibia (continued)

  • Predicted water resource impacts:
  • Flows in perennial rivers will decrease up to 25%
  • Recharge of aquifers will be reduced by 30-70%
  • Predicted agricultural impacts:
  • Reduced grazing distances
  • Reduced productivity of traditional crop farming and livestock production
  • Predicted socio-economic impacts:
  • Reduced food security
  • GDP will be adversely impacted as a result of climate change
2 recent namibian climate change studies and findings
2. Recent Namibian Climate Change Studies and Findings

Research on Farming Systems Change to Enable Adaptation to Climate Change (UNAM, 2008)

  • Focus entirely on preparing the agricultural sector for adaptation to climate change
  • There are five farming systems to be considered in Namibia:
    • > small-scale cereals and livestock
    • > small stock production
    • > mixed cattle ranching
    • > intensive agriculture
    • > natural resource production

Himba woman herding cattle

(Jason Longo, flickr.com)

2 recent namibian climate change studies and findings1
2. Recent Namibian Climate Change Studies and Findings

Research on Farming Systems Change to Enable Adaptation to Climate Change (continued)

  • Existing programmes that are relevant to mitigating the impacts of climate change:
  • Early Warning and Information System of MAWF and Emergency Management Unit of the Office of the Prime Minister
  • Namibian Disaster Management Fund – source of readily available funds during times of natural disaster
  • Namibia Farmers Seed Growers Cooperative – maintains a reserve of 100,000 tonnes of mahangu seed
2 recent namibian climate change studies and findings2
2. Recent Namibian Climate Change Studies and Findings

Research on Farming Systems Change to Enable Adaptation to Climate Change (continued)

  • Key recommendations:
  • Government should establish a formal system to manage diverse farming data to support climate change monitoring and modeling
  • Government should provide long-term funding for applied agricultural research to breed crops and livestock that are more adaptive to climate change
  • Government should establish a climate change information and advice service to support affected stakeholders

Mahangu growing in the field

(http://www.alternativ.nu/bilder/Namibia1.jpg)

3 overview of predicted climate change impacts by sector
3. Overview of Predicted Climate Change Impacts by Sector

Water Resources

  • Reduced availability of freshwater in dams due to increased evaporation
  • Recharge of aquifers reduced by 30-70%
  • Flow rates in perennial rivers reduced by 25%

Agriculture

  • Reduced productivity of traditional crops
  • Reduced livestock grazing distances
  • Reduced carrying capacity of rangeland for livestock

Drought in the Kunene Region

(courtesy of MET)

3 overview of predicted climate change impacts by sector1
3. Overview of Predicted Climate Change Impacts by Sector

Biodiversity and Tourism

  • Significant increase in size of arid land areas
  • Damage to important ecosystems and related potential risk of reduction in tourism

Socio-economic

  • Reduced food security, especially for rural poor
  • Adverse impact on Namibia’s GDP

Health

  • Increased likelihood of diseases, especially malaria and cholera in flooded areas
  • “Triple vulnerability” of HIV/AIDS sufferers: adverse climate conditions, poor health and associated economic impacts
3 overview of predicted climate change impacts by sector2
3. Overview of Predicted Climate Change Impacts by Sector

Coastal areas and resources

  • Damage to property and infrastructure from increased sea levels and storm surges
  • Changes in sea temperature and acidity leading to reduced fish populations

Energy

  • Reduced production at the Ruacana hydroelectric power plant due to reduced flow rates in the Kunene River
  • Increased need and opportunities to invest in renewable energy as a means to mitigate climate change
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