Caminìa

1. Caminìa

2. Caminìa, the basic structure mathematical programming model  spatial  partial equilibrium  one homogeneous commodity: wheat  exogenous exchange rates  perfect competition prevails both on domestic and international markets  19 countries/regions

3. Caminìa, the basic structure “base” model time reference: 1994  domestic markets represented through linear demand, supply and stock release functions producer prices are farm gate prices consumer prices are net prices to consumer  domestic transportation and handling costs  international transportation and handling costs

4. Caminìa, the policy modeling (base model)  EU compensatory payments: fully decoupled  US deficiency payments: fully decoupled  EU set aside % as its “rotational equivalent”  minimum guaranteed prices in the EU and the US  EU “export restitutions” endogenously determined

5. Caminìa, the policy modeling (base model)  US EEP export subsidies assumed to be paid in cash and to be unconstrained  EU “variable levies” endogenously determined  Japan’s JFA represented as an import quota  NAFTA  bilateral agreements

6. Caminìa, solver and calibration Written in GAMS, solved recursively to overcome the difficulties due to the high non-linearity of the constraints Average percent difference, in absolute values, between observed and “predicted” values is equal to2.6%for quantities produced and3.1%for quantities consumed

7. Caminìa, the simulations Base 2001, 2002 and 2005  expected changes in demand (population, per capita income)  expected changes in supply (yields)  FAIR Act  implementation of 1992 Cap reform

8. Caminìa, the simulations 1994 GATT Agreement on agriculture:  domestic support commitments: irrelevant  tariff levels: country schedules, unless applied tariffs were lower than binding ones  EU tariff protection: variable levy  Japan import quota: adjusted  TRQs  export competition commitments individually explicitly modeled  US export subsidies: maximizing exports

9. Caminìa, the simulations Agenda 2000  intervention price 1994119.19 2001 110.25 (-7.5%) 2002 & 2005 101.31 (- 15%)

10. Caminìa: where does it come from? Where is it now? Where is it going? Where does Caminia come from? - Anania and McCalla, AJAE, 1991 - Anania, Bohman and Carter, AJAE, 1992 - Solagral, 1998 Where is it now? Anania, 2001 Where is it going? more runs of current version (EU enlargement, $/Euro exchange rate sensitivity multi-product: cereals, meats and dairy