Sigma workshop part 1 pattern oriented testing and analysis
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SIGMA Workshop Part 1: Pattern-oriented Testing and Analysis. Gönenç Yücel , Can Sücüllü SESDYN Research Group Boğaziçi University, Istanbul. Similarity of dynamic behaviors. Comparing/evaluating model outcomes Calibration Validation Behavior analysis Scenario and policy analysis

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SIGMA Workshop Part 1: Pattern-oriented Testing and Analysis

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Sigma workshop part 1 pattern oriented testing and analysis

SIGMA WorkshopPart 1: Pattern-oriented Testing and Analysis

GönençYücel, Can Sücüllü

SESDYN Research Group

Boğaziçi University, Istanbul


Similarity of dynamic behaviors

Similarity of dynamic behaviors

  • Comparing/evaluating model outcomes

    • Calibration

    • Validation

    • Behavior analysis

    • Scenario and policy analysis

  • Similarity in terms of what?

    • Pattern characteristics


Th inking in patterns

Thinking in patterns

  • Problem identification/description

    • Oscillating inventory

    • Exponentially growing resource consumption

    • Declining sales

  • Model calibration and behavior validation

  • Sensitivity analysis

    • Numeric sensitivity vs. behavior sensitivity

  • Policy analysis


Patternwise comparison

BATS - Can Sücüllü & Gönenç Yücel - ISDC 2014 Delft

Patternwise Comparison


Behavior analysis and testing software bats

Behavior Analysis and Testing Software (BATS)


Overview of bats with external parties

Overview of BATS with External Parties

Import

Data-series

BATS

ParseCommands

Excel

Export

Data-series

Receive

Simulation results

Controlthe

Software

Viewthe

Results

USER


Data importing methods

Data Importing Methods

  • Excel

  • txt, csv, tab

  • Drawn by the user

  • Vensim results files (.vdf)

  • Vensim models through Model Docking Window


Model docking window of bats

Model Docking Window of BATS

  • Exporting of simulation results from Vensim models

Send commands; Run

Sendsimulation results to Workspace in order to further analyze the model output using data analysis features

Set parameter values


Overview of features of bats

Overview of Features of BATS

  • Data Importing

    • Load From File

    • Model Docking Window

    • Draw

  • Data Visualization

    • Plot

  • Model Analysis

    • Hypothesis Tester

    • Behavior Space Classifier

    • Behavior Class Mapper

*

  • Data Analysis

    • Classify

    • Trend

    • Autocorrelation

    • Autocorrelation Test

    • Spectral Density

    • Amplitude Estimation

    • Crosscorrelation

    • Summary Stats

    • Graphical Comparison

*

*

*

  • Data Preparation

    • Split

    • Select

    • Exponential Smoothing

    • Moving Average

    • < Trend >

*


Graphical comparison

Graphical Comparison


Bats hypothesis tester

BATS Hypothesis Tester

Extreme conditions are imposed parameter values

Model is run and output is obtained

IF hypothesized behavior <-3 FAILED

IF hypothesized behavior >-3 PASSED

IF multiple >-3 INCONCLUSIVE

ISTS Algorithm is called


Behavior space classifier

Behavior Space Classifier

Settings


Bats behavior space classifier

BATS Behavior Space Classifier

Outcome Variable

Parameter 2 Range 2

For each cell,a simulation run is made

Parameter 1 Range 1

Model output is taken from Vensim

The highest valueisentered in theClassifierGridcell

ISTS Algorithm is called

25 likelihoods are obtained

oscct

Param1=1

Param2=9


Behavior class mapper

Behavior Class Mapper

Settings


Bats behavior class mapper

BATS Behavior Class Mapper

Pre-specified class is sshgr

(s-shaped-growth)

Foreachpoint,a simulation run is made

Model output is taken from Vensim

The likelihoodvalue for pre-specified class is plotted on the graph

25 likelihoods are obtained

ISTS Algorithm is called

Param1=8

Param2=16

-3.99


Identified usage modes of bats

Identified Usage Modes of BATS

  • Structure-oriented behavior validity testing

    • Extreme condition tests

  • Behavior pattern validity testing

    • Barlas’ Multi-Step procedure and Graphical Inspection

  • Sensitivity analysis

    • Behavior pattern sensitivity with respect to parameter changes

  • Model calibration

    • Parameter calibration based on behavior patterns

  • Policy design

    • Policy parameter specification based on behavior patterns

  • Policy analysis

    • Policy structure specification based on pattern characteristics of model behaviors


Sigma workshop part 1 pattern oriented testing and analysis

  • Current version of BATS can be downloaded from the following link (Only for Windows for now. Mac version will be coming soon)

    • Website: http://www.ie.boun.edu.tr/labs/sesdyn/projects/bats/index.html

    • Download links:http://www.ie.boun.edu.tr/labs/sesdyn/projects/bats/bats_v1_11_win.ziphttp://www.ie.boun.edu.tr/labs/sesdyn/projects/bats/bats_v1_11_win.rar

  • Please, keep in mind that this is a beta version.

  • And if you give it a try, do not forget to send us some feedback that can help us to improve it.


For further questions

Thank you…

For further questions

Gönenç Yücel, Assist. Prof.

Boğaziçi University

Industrial Engineering Dept.

[email protected]