Sigma workshop part 1 pattern oriented testing and analysis
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SIGMA Workshop Part 1: Pattern-oriented Testing and Analysis. Gönenç Yücel , Can Sücüllü SESDYN Research Group Boğaziçi University, Istanbul. Similarity of dynamic behaviors. Comparing/evaluating model outcomes Calibration Validation Behavior analysis Scenario and policy analysis

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SIGMA Workshop Part 1: Pattern-oriented Testing and Analysis

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SIGMA WorkshopPart 1: Pattern-oriented Testing and Analysis

GönençYücel, Can Sücüllü

SESDYN Research Group

Boğaziçi University, Istanbul


Similarity of dynamic behaviors

  • Comparing/evaluating model outcomes

    • Calibration

    • Validation

    • Behavior analysis

    • Scenario and policy analysis

  • Similarity in terms of what?

    • Pattern characteristics


Thinking in patterns

  • Problem identification/description

    • Oscillating inventory

    • Exponentially growing resource consumption

    • Declining sales

  • Model calibration and behavior validation

  • Sensitivity analysis

    • Numeric sensitivity vs. behavior sensitivity

  • Policy analysis


BATS - Can Sücüllü & Gönenç Yücel - ISDC 2014 Delft

Patternwise Comparison


Behavior Analysis and Testing Software (BATS)


Overview of BATS with External Parties

Import

Data-series

BATS

ParseCommands

Excel

Export

Data-series

Receive

Simulation results

Controlthe

Software

Viewthe

Results

USER


Data Importing Methods

  • Excel

  • txt, csv, tab

  • Drawn by the user

  • Vensim results files (.vdf)

  • Vensim models through Model Docking Window


Model Docking Window of BATS

  • Exporting of simulation results from Vensim models

Send commands; Run

Sendsimulation results to Workspace in order to further analyze the model output using data analysis features

Set parameter values


Overview of Features of BATS

  • Data Importing

    • Load From File

    • Model Docking Window

    • Draw

  • Data Visualization

    • Plot

  • Model Analysis

    • Hypothesis Tester

    • Behavior Space Classifier

    • Behavior Class Mapper

*

  • Data Analysis

    • Classify

    • Trend

    • Autocorrelation

    • Autocorrelation Test

    • Spectral Density

    • Amplitude Estimation

    • Crosscorrelation

    • Summary Stats

    • Graphical Comparison

*

*

*

  • Data Preparation

    • Split

    • Select

    • Exponential Smoothing

    • Moving Average

    • < Trend >

*


Graphical Comparison


BATS Hypothesis Tester

Extreme conditions are imposed parameter values

Model is run and output is obtained

IF hypothesized behavior <-3 FAILED

IF hypothesized behavior >-3 PASSED

IF multiple >-3 INCONCLUSIVE

ISTS Algorithm is called


Behavior Space Classifier

Settings


BATS Behavior Space Classifier

Outcome Variable

Parameter 2 Range 2

For each cell,a simulation run is made

Parameter 1 Range 1

Model output is taken from Vensim

The highest valueisentered in theClassifierGridcell

ISTS Algorithm is called

25 likelihoods are obtained

oscct

Param1=1

Param2=9


Behavior Class Mapper

Settings


BATS Behavior Class Mapper

Pre-specified class is sshgr

(s-shaped-growth)

Foreachpoint,a simulation run is made

Model output is taken from Vensim

The likelihoodvalue for pre-specified class is plotted on the graph

25 likelihoods are obtained

ISTS Algorithm is called

Param1=8

Param2=16

-3.99


Identified Usage Modes of BATS

  • Structure-oriented behavior validity testing

    • Extreme condition tests

  • Behavior pattern validity testing

    • Barlas’ Multi-Step procedure and Graphical Inspection

  • Sensitivity analysis

    • Behavior pattern sensitivity with respect to parameter changes

  • Model calibration

    • Parameter calibration based on behavior patterns

  • Policy design

    • Policy parameter specification based on behavior patterns

  • Policy analysis

    • Policy structure specification based on pattern characteristics of model behaviors


  • Current version of BATS can be downloaded from the following link (Only for Windows for now. Mac version will be coming soon)

    • Website: http://www.ie.boun.edu.tr/labs/sesdyn/projects/bats/index.html

    • Download links:http://www.ie.boun.edu.tr/labs/sesdyn/projects/bats/bats_v1_11_win.ziphttp://www.ie.boun.edu.tr/labs/sesdyn/projects/bats/bats_v1_11_win.rar

  • Please, keep in mind that this is a beta version.

  • And if you give it a try, do not forget to send us some feedback that can help us to improve it.


Thank you…

For further questions

Gönenç Yücel, Assist. Prof.

Boğaziçi University

Industrial Engineering Dept.

[email protected]