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Greening the Automotive Sector – Are Hybrids Green? A Life Cycle Assessment Approach

Greening the Automotive Sector – Are Hybrids Green? A Life Cycle Assessment Approach. Chuck Hostovsky, PhD, MCIP, RPP Sessional Lecturer 2 – University of Toronto GGR335 Oct. 7, 2010 Originally presented at the Canadian Association of Geographers conference, Oct. 2009. Lecture readings.

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Greening the Automotive Sector – Are Hybrids Green? A Life Cycle Assessment Approach

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  1. Greening the Automotive Sector – Are Hybrids Green? A Life Cycle Assessment Approach Chuck Hostovsky, PhD, MCIP, RPP Sessional Lecturer 2 – University of Toronto GGR335 Oct. 7, 2010 Originally presented at the Canadian Association of Geographers conference, Oct. 2009

  2. Lecture readings • UNEP chapter 3 • Reid R. Heffner, Kenneth S. Kurani, Thomas S. Turrentine. 2007. “Symbolism in California’s early market for hybrid electric vehicles.” Transportation Research D, 12, pp. 396–413. • Hostovsky, C. draft 2010. “Hybrid and Electric Automobiles: Implications to Transportation Demand Management”, Robbins, Paul, Mulvaney, Dustin, and Golson, J. Geoffrey (eds.). Green Society: Toward a Sustainable Future, Volume 10: Green Technology. Online SAGE.

  3. Hypothesis • Increased popularity of hybrids is largely based on an image of environmental friendliness resulting from deep corporate green-washing, rather than empirical evidence of environmental superiority. As a result hybrid owners are increasing their VMT due to the conservation rebound effect. • Furthermore, some governments are providing economic incentives, allowing SOV in HOV lanes, and creating other initiatives to promote hybrids that may be counter-productive to transportation demand management (TDM) and transit-oriented development (TOD). Old paradigm - adjust roads and vehicles, not driver behavior (VTPI) New - improve system diversity and efficiency Generate alternatives to single occupancy commuter travel (get people out of their cars)

  4. Research questions • Are hybrids environmentally superior to conventional internal combustion engine motor vehicles? • Is hybrid advertising green-washing? • Do hybrid owners become environmentally “smug”? • Is there evidence of the conservation rebound effect exhibited by hybrid owners? • What is the relationship between hybrid ownership and TDM? • In the long run, will increased popularity of hybrid and AEV affect the move toward TOD in urban planning (smart growth) due to perceived improved freeway LOS?

  5. Methods • Literature search • Thematic analysis of hybrid commercials and advertising • Focus group facilitation • Metronuaghts Transit “Un-conference”, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Session Facilitator: Hybrid and Green Vehicles: Implications for Transit Oriented Development, May 3, 2008. • Near future: arranging focus groups with a Toronto and Burlington Toyota dealers (suburban versus city hybrid owners)

  6. Trend - sales increasing +300% Canada 2004 – 2006 Still less than 5% market J.D. Power predicts U.S. hybrid sales to triple by 2015 http://www.motorauthority.com/blog/1024598_j-d-power-predicts-u-s-diesel-and-hybrid-sales-to-triple-by-2015 http://www1.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/facts/2009_fotw598.html

  7. De Rigueur Becoming de rigueur to own a hybrid for celebrities and politicians Lifestyle Magazine, 2007

  8. Juxtapose carbon footprint of Jen’s new 10,000 sq. ft. estateOK Magazine 2008

  9. What the presidential candidates drivewww.greendaily.com/2008/01/19/what-the-presidential-candidates-drive/ • Associated Press queried the candidates about what cars they drive • Republicans: • Mike Huckabee : A 2007 Chevy Tahoe as their family's main car and his personal car is a Chevrolet Silverado truck (16 mpg and 12 mpg). • John McCain: His wife drives a Lexus, he drives a Cadillac and his daughter drives a hybrid. • Mitt Romney: Romney drives a Mustang convertible and a Chevy pickup; his wife drives a Cadillac crossover. • Rudy Guiliani: Doesn't own a car. • Democrats: • Barack Obama: Chrysler 300C, but later bought a Ford Escape SUV hybrid. • John Edwards: An Escape hybrid • Hillary Clinton: Mercury Mariner hybrid. http://www.obamas300c.com/ Is it now “environmentally correct” to drive a hybrid?

  10. Transportation (travel) demand management (TDM) is the use of policies, programs, services and products to influence whether, why, when, where and how people travel. TDM measures motivate people to: shift modes make fewer trips drive more efficiently What is TDM?

  11. Government initiatives – counter productive to TDM • Hybrids allowed in HOV lanes in some jurisdictions • Canada eco-Auto rebate • $2,000 for compact hybrids • Stimulates induced (latent) travel demand • reduce transit use, car-pooling, trip combining & TDM strategies

  12. Private sector initiatives • DRIVERS OF HYBRID AND FUEL EFFICIENT VEHICLES GET PREFERRED GREEN PARKING AT IKEA STORES IN CANADA • IKEA Recognizes Environmentally Conscious Customers with Two Designated Parking Spots at All 11 LocationsIKEA is rewarding customers who drive hybrid and fuel efficient vehicles with preferred Green Parking spaces. Rolling out at the end of May at all 11 IKEA stores across the country, two parking spaces in each lot will be designated as Green. IKEA Canada welcomes all drivers of hybrid cars and fuel efficient vehicles recognized by the recent Federal government’s tax relief incentive (cars that use less than 6.5L of gas per 100km) to take advantage of IKEA’s Green Parking spaces. http://www.ikea.com/ms/en_CA/about_ikea/press_room/press_release/national/hybrid_parking.html

  13. Ontario MTO initiative: “Eco-license” plates… Aug. 8 2007 press release • Green vehicle program that will rate cars, light trucks and commercial vehicles using environmental criteria… green vehicles will be recognizedwith an Eco-license plate for HOV lanes

  14. Life cycle impacts of automobiles http://www.ec.gc.ca/soer-ree/English/products/factsheets/93-1.cfm

  15. Are hybrids “green”? • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tq4nrmnqY9o • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XblJq4iVT9g • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Mlffr3e5P4 • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PVg2rG07z50&mode=related&search • MacLean, Heather L. and Lester B. Lave. 2003. “Life Cycle Assessment of Automobile/Fuel Options.” Environ. Sci. Technol., 2003, 37 (23), 5445-5452• • Did not compare conventional to alternatives • Only looked at use phase • Pointed out one major LCA – Ford Taurus, 73% CO2 from use phase

  16. Ford - Easy being green? • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OQLiX_yqkfk • “The publication in August 2007 of its 38-page Product Sustainability Index Report was a first for the automotive industry (certified against ISO 14040 for LCA by external assessors). As well as detailing the Ford approach to sustainability, it is also a fact that the three of its cars designed with sustainability in mind have delivered improved environmental, social and economic sustainability performance compared to their predecessors and other models.” • United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) & Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry Europe (SETCE). 2009. Life Cycle Management: How business uses it to decrease footprint, create opportunities and make value chains more sustainable. • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LupVfiXjE6c&NR=1

  17. “Dust to Dust” LCA 2008 • CNW Marketing Research Inc. has conducted the world's most comprehensive analysis of the "life cycle" energy requirements of more than 100 makes and models of cars and trucks • 4,000 "data points" for each car – “cradle to grave” • energy consumed in research and development • energy consumed in junkyard disposal • energy needed to produce parts • greenhouse gas emissions • Fuel mileage • Vehicle lifespan

  18. Hybrids • hybrids fare poorly because of increased complexity • Batteries - Toyota buys 1,000 tonnes of nickel a year from Ontario (mined and smelted in Sudbury). This nickel gets shipped to Wales for refining, then to China, for further processing, and then to Toyota's battery plant in Tokyo - a 10,000-mile trip, mostly by petrol powered container ships and diesel-powered locomotives • CNW credited Prius with only half its 200,000 lifetime miles – poor battery life, reduced use • hybrids fare poorly because of increased complexity

  19. CNW Top 18 most energy efficient vehicles over their life cycle (normalized by $) • SMART $0.583 • Ion $0.621 • Focus $0.621 • Cavalier $0.655 • Wrangler $0.656 • xB $0.683 • Aveo $0.693 • xA $0.713 • Sunfire $0.732 • Corolla $0.748 • Elantra $0.755 • Accent $0.792 • tC $0.792 • Fit $0.799 • Spectra $0.801 • Sentra $0.862 • Cobalt $0.872 • Mazda 3 $0.876 Dr. Chuck’s Mazda 3 full of haz waste • Why the 4WD Jeep with 3.8L V6? • Less energy to manufacture, longer km lifespan, easier to recycle

  20. CNWHybrid energy efficiency over their lifetime: • 1. Honda Insight ($2.94 per mile) • 5 x greater than Mercedes Smart • 2. Ford Escape Hybrid ($3.18 per mile) • 3. Honda Civic Hybrid ($3.24 per mile) • 4. Toyota Prius ($3.25 per mile) • 5. Honda Accord Hybrid ($3.30 per mile) • Critics: Hybridcars.com • http://www.hybridcars.com/environment-stories/dust-to-dust-energy-costs.html

  21. Sucking on death analogy… mild/light cigarettes & hybrid cars http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yZZ_Tor33Ms&feature=related

  22. Dr. Chuck’s Simplified LCA • Hostovsky's Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle Life Cycle Index • Go to Excel file • LCA – 30% manufacturing/disposal phases • Weight (assumes percentage of different materials the same) • Lifespan in miles – 200,000 miles industry standard • LCA – 70% use phase • Miles per gallon • Number of occupants – single, mid, maximum base don number of seat belts

  23. Yamaha Riva scooter

  24. Dr. Chuck’s Ducati’s ST2 - 944 cc v-2 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LL81zNA6mFk

  25. Prius, Beetle Diesel, Accord

  26. Caravan, Navigator

  27. Bus, Winnebago

  28. Hybrid TV Commercials online, March 2009 • Qualitative, thematic analysis, using grounded theory • Sample site – www.Youtube.com • English, not other languages (appear to be entirely different commercials) • 19 commercials: • Toyota = 9 • Honda = 5 • Ford = 4 • GM = 1 • Examined dominant images, themes, and slogans (catch phrases) used

  29. Commercial analysis results • 58% (n=11) dominant images involved the hybrid set in nature: • Deep woods common, mountains, glaciers and valleys • Biodiversity, species at risk, rich plant life • 26% (n=5) subset has a strong ecological restoration thematic • Seed planted grows into a tree bearing hybrids as fruit that fall to the ground and start to drive • Flowers follow the car and the city greens • North America becomes green from space • Everything the hybrid passes on the road transforms to green • Seedlings/flowers emerging through the asphalt • Slogans: many e.g. “Kermit the Frog saying “its easy being green” • Most outrageous: “harmony between man, nature and machine” • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tq4nrmnqY9o • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XblJq4iVT9g • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Mlffr3e5P4

  30. Other themes • 26% (5) Transformative technology • Images of da Vinci, hybrid engines, other transportation modes • Slogans: • “One small step on the accelerator, one giant leap for mankind” • “Creating new alternatives… Ones that won’t change the way we live, but rather the impact our lives have on the environment around us” • 16% (n=3) no environmental theme – appeal to the vehicles utility as a hatch-back or to fuel mileage • Images of young adults loading their cars, parking in the city, everyday driving • Slogans: • “The hybrid for everyone is here” • “most fuel efficient car in its class”

  31. Conservation Rebound Effect • The consumer chooses to use more of the resource (increase demand) instead of realizing the energy/environmental savings. • e.g. a person with a more efficient home heater may chose to raise the setting on the thermostat or a person driving a more efficient car may drive more

  32. Conservation Rebound Effect? Greening, L.A. Energy efficiency and consumption - the reboundeffect - a survey, Energy Policy (2000) 28: 389-401 • Small & Van Dender (UC Energy Institute: Policy & Economics."The Effect of Improved Fuel Economy on Vehicle Miles Traveled: Estimating the Rebound Effect Using U.S. State Data, 1966-2001 • short- and long-run rebound effect 4.7% and 22.0%

  33. Very little research on CRE • de Haan, Peter, Mueller, Michel G.; Peters, Anja. 2006. “Does the hybrid Toyota Prius lead to rebound effects? Analysis of size and number of cars previously owned by Swiss Prius buyers” ; Ecological Economics, 58, 3, 592-605. • Acknowledged Greening’s 2000 survey • surveyed 367 buyers of the Toyota Prius 2 in Switzerland • Of cars replaced, CO2 emissions dropped 210 g/km to 104 g • Conservation rebound effect – 3 types? • vehicle size did not increase • average household vehicle ownership remained stable • However - unable to determine if hybrid drivers will in the future drive more

  34. Eco-Smugness noted in the media • July 15, 2007, San Francisco Chronicle: “Oh, so pious, Prius drivers/Smugness drifts over the warming Earth -- is that a bad thing?” by Vicki Haddock • “The firm's (CNW) research concluded that more customers pick the Prius over alternatives like the hybrid version of the Honda Civic precisely because the Prius is exclusively -- and identifiably -- a hybrid. While just 36 percent cited fuel economy as a prime motivator for buying a Prius, 57 percent said their main reason was that "it makes a statement about me." What's more, in focus groups, many Prius buyers admit expecting acclaim from friends and co-workers for making such a socially responsible, planet-saving purchase. But the satisfaction of some eco-drivers risks swelling to self-righteousness -- like the Prius driver coasting down Highway 101 in Marin County last week with the bumper sticker: "How many lives to the gallon do you get?"

  35. Eco-Smugness? • Reid R. Heffner, Kenneth S. Kurani, Thomas S. Turrentine. 2007. “Symbolism in California’s early market for hybrid electric vehicles.” Transportation Research D, 12, pp. 396–413. • “Many households acknowledged purchasing their HEVs as a response to environmental concerns. However, most had only a basic understanding of environmental issues or the ecological benefits of HEVs. Rather than buying their HEVs with measurable environmental goals in mind, most of the individuals in this study bought a symbol of preserving the environment that they could incorporate into a narrative of who they are, or who they wish to be.” http://vodpod.com/watch/200728-southpark-hybrid

  36. Focus Group - Hybrid Vehicles and Green Washing • Metronuaghts May 3, 2008 • Bias – hard core transit advocates • General suspicion of hybrid marketing • competition with transit • people drive cars as a status symbol, thus where do hybrid cars, Smart cars, ethonol cars, electric cars fit in? • 2 future focus groups • ` for signs of the CRE • Suburban – attitudes toward transit (bus only system) Level of Service • do they feel no alternatives to hybrids living in auto-dependant suburbia? • City - Attitudes toward transit (TTC – LRT, subway) Level of Service and changes in transit patronage

  37. Preliminary research conclusions • No empirical LCA based evidence that hybrids are more environmentally efficient • Hybrid commercials exhibit a strong tendency towards green-washing • Evidence of eco-smugness, likely as a result of deep corporate green-washing – may dissuade TDM • Governments and business appear to be reacting to this popularity with misguided programs, subsidies and policies • Much more research is required, especially in terms of how hybrids effect induced travel demand, and perceived transit LOS and freeway LOS (environmental performance as a measure of effectiveness) • Transit advocates are suspicious of hybrid popularity and the potential effect on TDM and TOD (i.e. “Smart Growth”)

  38. Are Hybrids Green? • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1V86wJWtP8Y • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PVg2rG07z50&mode=related&search= • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Mlffr3e5P4 • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XblJq4iVT9g • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nIJn2gyUNCQ • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tq4nrmnqY9o • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OQLiX_yqkfk • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CV0FnaEnT6o&feature=related • Amateur Prius joke video • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T_U7Y7eXZiw&feature=related • Amateur Escape Hybrid joke video • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LupVfiXjE6c&NR=1 • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1V86wJWtP8Y • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PVg2rG07z50&mode=related&search= • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Mlffr3e5P4 • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XblJq4iVT9g • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nIJn2gyUNCQ • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tq4nrmnqY9o • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OQLiX_yqkfk • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CV0FnaEnT6o&feature=related • Amateur Prius joke video • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T_U7Y7eXZiw&feature=related • Amateur Escape Hybrid joke video • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LupVfiXjE6c&NR=1

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