National Wildland Fire Weather Needs Assessment

1. National Wildland Fire Weather Needs Assessment Mr. Mike BabcockSenior Staff Meteorologist, OFCMNOAA SAB FWRWG, October 1, 2007

2. Fires: An Increasing Threat • 2005 and 2006 were record years for acres burned • Acres burned have trended upwards more than 100% since mid-80s Source: National Climatic Data Center Climate of 2006 Wildfire Season Summary

3. Fires: An Increasing Threat • 2006 • 9.9 million acres burned • Set new record • 2007 • 8.1 million acres burned as of 9/20/07 • 36% above 10-year average The U.S. spends approximately $2.7B annually in wildland fire suppression, preparedness, fuels management, and other activities.

4. WGA Request • June 2005 WGA Resolution • “The Western Governors urge NOAA to: Complete a National Needs Assessment Report, by NOAA’s Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology, of federal, state and local fire managers needs for weather information in their wildfire and prescribed fire decision making processes and a framework to meet those needs by the NWS and Predictive Services.”

5. OFCM Response • ICMSSR Action Item, November 2005 • “OFCM should move forward to form a Joint Action Group (JAG) under the Committee for Environmental Services, Operations, and Research Needs (CESORN), to review the needs and requirements for wildland fire weather information, to include identifying organizational responsibilities and addressing the following issues: data collection, fire weather research, weather forecast services, data assimilation, air quality, information dissemination, education and outreach, and user response.” • By Spring, 2006, the Joint Action Group for the National Wildland Fire Weather Needs Assessment (JAG/NWFWNA) was formed

6. DHS FEMA U.S. Fire Administration DOC NOAA NIST DOD DOE DOI U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service National Park Service Bureau of Land Mgmt U.S. Geological Survey Bureau of Indian Affairs DOT FAA FHWA EPA HHS NASA USDA U.S. Forest Service Subject Matter Experts State Foresters Universities JAG/NWFWNA Cochairs: Dr. Allen Riebau, USDA/FS Mr. Eli Jacks, DOC/NOAA/NWS Representatives from:

7. Assessment Process • Obtained info via workshops and questionnaires • Reached out to 2,100+ community members • Received input from 745, including reps from: • National Association of State Foresters • National Interagency Fire Center • National Interagency Coordination Center • National Wildfire Coordinating Group • International Association of Wildland Fire • Many others (federal agencies, states, tribes, local emergency managers, academia, private companies/industry, etc.) • Results: • Identified 47 validated needs in 9 functional areas

8. 9 Functional Areas Data collection and use Modeling, prediction, and data assimilation Forecast products and services Fire weather research and development Information dissemination and technologies User response and decision support Education, training, outreach, partnering, and collaboration Socioeconomic factors Funding and human resources (crosscutting) Assessment Process

9. Example: Forecast Products & Services NWS Red Flag Warnings • Extremely beneficial product for users • Frequently used • Enhancements needed include longer lead times and wider dissemination

10. Example: Fire Weather R&D • Community needs better understanding of how climate change and variability impact wildland fire threat • Potential base to build on: • Forest Service Northern Global Change Research Program

11. Example: Information Dissemination Coordinated, “One-stop” Website for Fire Weather Data & Tools • Easier access to all relevant regional data/products • Operational and experimental products • Product accuracy information • Product training and reference material • Information on latest research efforts • Archived data • Base to build on: • Rocky Mountain GACC Internet page is a site with considerable info addressing some of these areas

12. Example: Decision-Support Tools Users want better decision-support tools for smoke management • Development must include more collaboration with and feedback from the user community • Base to build on: • NOAA Air Resources Laboratory smoke analysis & forecast products out to 48 hrs

13. Example: Training Users want comprehensive, proven, fire weather training/certification programs • Build on best practices among existing training programs • The National Wildfire Coordinating Group Training Working Team has widely used and successful training programs, however, • They need to be validated against current training requirements • They need to be available for entire community • Must address core competencies

14. Example: Socioeconomic Factors Use existing tools to inform and educate the public • State-of-the-art outreach tools can be adapted for public outreach, understanding, mitigating, and responding to wildland fire threats • Base to build on: • Forest Service Pacific NW Research Station research on socioeconomic resiliency

15. Focus onFire Weather R&D • ID current work viewed by users as relevant • Users’ assessment of knowledge gaps • Spectrum of user needs and requirements • Existing and potential R&D capabilities • Potential partnerships • Transition from R&D to Operations

16. Fire Weather R&D (2) • Four Major Needs • The fire community needs a better understanding of the physical processes associated with fire potential, fire combustion, wildland fire smoke, and climate change/climate variability • Users need easier and more centralized access to information on research initiatives, efforts, and successes • Mature research needs to be integrated systematically into an operational environment for routine use by the fire community • Users need to be integrated into R&D efforts to allow for effective feedback on operational usefulness

17. URGENT Fire Weather R&D (3) • Closer look at first major need • Interaction between fire potential, fire combustion, and atmosphere needs to be better understood and modeled • A better understanding of wildland fire smoke is needed, and smoke prediction tools need to be refined and perfected • Wildland fire and climate change/variability is an issue of high concern, for which more scientific understanding is a priority

18. Summary and JAG Next Steps • Summary: • Identified 47 validated needs within 9 functional areas. Summary document available online • JAG Next Steps: • Finalize detailed needs report • Form Working Group to move forward • Work with agencies and interagency groups on a gap assessment and a coordinated plan to close the gaps • Leverage existing and plannedcapabilities at all levels; buildvertical and horizontalpartnerships

19. Questions?

20. BACKUP SLIDES

21. OFCM Background • Jan 1964: Public Law 87-843 led to OFCM formation • Accountable to Congress and OMB • Coordinate agency budgets and activities • Report budgets and activities in annual Federal Plan • 1980: GAO study revitalized OFCM • Independent function with full-time staff • 1985: DOC IG reviewed OFCM and made two specific recommendations, directing OFCM to: • Perform crosscut studies to review agency weather programs and requirements • Document OFCM studies; make information available to interested parties in the decision-making and budgeting processes

22. OFCM Background • OFCM Mission: • To ensure the effective use of federal meteorological resources by leading the systematic coordination of operational weather requirements, services, and supporting research, among the federal agencies • High-level focus on: • Needs and requirements • Issues and problems • Studies, reports, plans, and handbooks • Crosscut reviews, assessments, and analyses

23. Federal Committee for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research (FCMSSR) Program Councils Federal Coordinator for Meteorology Interdepartmental Committee for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research (ICMSSR) Standing Committees National Space Weather Program CouncilCommittee for Space Weather Working Group for Urban Meteorology National Aviation Weather Program Council Committee for Aviation Services and Research Environmental Services, Operations, and Research Needs Environmental Information Systems and Communications Climate Analysis, Monitoring and Services National Operational Processing Centers Program Council Committee for Operational Processing Centers Integrated Observing Systems Cooperative Research OFCM Background

24. OFCM Background FCMSSR Members

25. OFCM Background ICMSSR Members

26. Independent agencies: Departments of: • Environmental Protection Agency • National Aeronautics and Space Administration • National Science Foundation • National Transportation Safety Board • Nuclear Regulatory Commission • Agriculture • Commerce • Defense • Energy • Homeland Security • Science & Technology • FEMA • Coast Guard • Interior • State • Transportation Executive Office of the President: • Office of Management and Budget • Office of Science and Technology Policy OFCM Background OFCM Partners

27. CESORN Action • Recommend the CESORN establish a Working Group for Wildland Fire. This WG should: • Monitor agency progress toward meeting the needs identified by the JAG/NWFWNA • Coordinate activities across agencies to ensure established needs are being efficiently addressed • Monitor the needs of the community to address new and changing needs as they arise and develop • Reach out to wildland fire and land management agencies at the state, tribal, and local level to: • Ensure their needs are documented and addressed • Help them meet their needs through Federal actions