Carbon Storage Mitigating Climate Change?

1. Carbon Storage Mitigating Climate Change? Will this work? Is it too late?

2. Carbon Retention Timescale is Long

3. Lag Time Issue • Is really quite serious • We don’t even know yet of the climate system is responding to increased CO2 • Other factors (water vapor feedback loop, aerosol suppression, increased clouds) may be at work • If the lag time (some times called the warming pipeline) is large then stabilization targets may be coming too late

4. The Physics of the Problem • CO2 long atmospheric lifetime • Ocean (water) takes a long time to heat up and cool off  ocean SST is primary driver of global climate change. • Estimates suggest warming pipeline is 0.5 – 1 degree C (and there is nothing we can do about this)

5. Probability and Concerns • A recent, thorough analysis has yielded this thoroughly discouraging result:

6. Complications • Aerosols/global dimming may well be masking the warming signal  this is an area of much current research • Feedback from clouds looks likely to be positive rather than negative in the most recent grid models that actually contain clouds • This means the 2 degree C stabilization target has already been exceeded

7. Global Carbon Emissions

8. The Stabilization Triangle

9. Wedges:

10. Carbon Budget: Know THIS!

11. Carbon Accounting I • 1 ppm CO2 = 2.1 GigaTons of C • Averaged over last 10 years net increase has been 1.8 ppm or 3.8 GTC annually • Sources = 7.7 (fossil) + 1.4 (deforest) = 9.1 • Sinks = 3.0 (forests) + 2.3 = 5.3 • 9.1 -5.3 = 3.8

12. Carbon Accounting II • Current rate (2008-2010) = 2.5 ppm so we are rapidly exceeding the Sinks. • Make simple model – Assume sinks remain constant at 5.3 GTC removal. • Can then roughly figure out stabilization levels for emission targets. • Very likely nothing can be done about the 1.4 GTC from deforestation so concentrate on the fossil fuel issue

13. Carbon Accounting III • Cut emissions by 25% = 5.7 • Emissions still rise by (5.7+1.4 - 5.3)/2.1 = 0.85 ppm per year  still that’s much less than the current rate of 2.5 ppm! • Cut emissions by 50% = (3.85+1.4 - 5.3) =5.25 and now your in equilibrium • Cut emissions by 75% =(1.9+1.4 -5.3) and you get only 1 ppm reduction per year • Do this today at you get to 350 ppm in 40 years.

14. Continue BAU for 10 more years-Carbon Intensity @1% per year • Reach 430 ppm of CO2 • Net annual C increase is now 5.8 GTC • Fossil source function is now 8.7 GTC • 50% reduction then = (4.35+1.4-5.3) = 0.45/2.1 = 0.2 ppm increase • 75% reduction then = (2.18+1.4-5.3)=-0.8 ppm per year so now it takes 100 years to reach 350 ppm!  This should set policy framework!

15. Avoiding The 500 PPM Level • Our current annual emission is 7 GTC! BAU trajectory is 500 ppm by 2050 or adding 175 GT over next 50 years above current baseline. Must therefore suppress 3.5 GT year (which is 50% of the current rate) • Look for somewhat equal contributions in all areas (e.g. storage, production, fuel, etc)  Wedge steps to get there by 2055 • Each Wedge requires a large scale, multi-national effort! • Wedges correspond to worldwide emissions – each country’s contribution varies; US will have to reduce or sequester about 80% of its current carbon emission to play fair

16. Energy Efficiency and Conversion Strategies • Increase fuel economy for 2 billion cars from 30 to 60 mpg • or, decrease annual miles for 2 billion 30 mpg cars from 10,000 to 5000 • Efficient buildings: cut carbon emissions in buildings by 25% • Increase coal fired electricity efficiency from 40% to 60% using advanced high temperature materials

17. New Fuel Sources Strategies • Replace 1400 GW of 50% efficient coal fired plants with natural gas fired plants • Increase ethanol production by a factor of 100 relative to current US production utilizing 1/6 of world available cropland • Add 4 million 1 MW peak windmills (100 times current world capacity) for Hydrogen production for fuel cells

18. CCS Strategies • Capture at baseload power plant (at 800 GW Coal or 1600 GW of Natural Gas) • Capture at steam-reforming Hydrogen production plants at levels of 250 Mt/year for gas and 500 Mt/year H-production by coal • Capture at coal-liquid plants  crucial; future facilities could produce 30 million barrels a day

19. Alternative Energy Strategies @ 2TW Electricity Production • Need more due to lower capacity factor of Alternatives (30-40%) compared to Fossil or Nuke plants (90%). • Substitute wind power for Coal power at the scale of building 400,000 5 MW turbines on land or offshore • Substitute PV power for Coal power at the level of 2000 GW  North African Desert

20. Wedge Approach – 1GTC/yrreduction by 2054 • One Wedge achieved by US if it reduces its carbon intensity 2.1% per year for next 50 years • 2 billion cars have large lever arm on the wedge • In 2000, Coal power plants operated at 32% efficiency and produced ¼ of all carbon emissions (1.7 GTC)  a wedge is achieved at 60% efficiency

21. Wedge Approach Continued • One wedge achieved by displacing 1400 GW of coal with gas by 2054. Requires China/Russia agreement on Natural Gas. • Substitute 700 GW of Nuclear fission for Coal would achieve a wedge  requires restoration of public confidence in safety and waste disposal • Wedge achieved by implementation of any 2 TW AE scheme for electricity production • 34 million gallons per day of ethanol production achieves a wedge (this is 60 times larger than current world production rate!)

22. Summary of Wedge portfolio