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Where Stands Scotland Now? Domestic and International Issues

Where Stands Scotland Now? Domestic and International Issues. John Curtice ScotCen Social Research/Strathclyde University. Three Opportunities/Challenges. Using Holyrood’s enhanced powers The prospect of Brexit A continued independence debate. Trends in Attitudes towards Inequality.

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Where Stands Scotland Now? Domestic and International Issues

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  1. Where Stands Scotland Now? Domestic and International Issues John Curtice ScotCen Social Research/Strathclyde University

  2. Three Opportunities/Challenges • Using Holyrood’s enhanced powers • The prospect of Brexit • A continued independence debate

  3. Trends in Attitudes towards Inequality Source: British and Scottish Social Attitudes

  4. Trends in Attitudes towards Redistribution Source: British and Scottish Social Attitudes

  5. Trends in Left-Right Summary Measure Source: British and Scottish Social Attitudes

  6. More Tax and Spend? Source: Scottish and British Social Attitudes

  7. But Who Should Pay? Source: YouGov Oct 2017

  8. And For What? Source: YouGov Oct 17

  9. Support/Oppose Different Tax Bands From England Source: YouGov May 17

  10. Scotland Still Committed to Remain

  11. Long Term Trends In Attitudes to EU Source: Scottish Social Attitudes

  12. How Different? Source: British and Scottish Social Attitudes Surveys

  13. Does Scotland Want A Different Brexit? – Immigration & Borders Source: NatCen/ScotCen Mixed Mode Random Probability Panels Feb. 2017

  14. Does Scotland Want Something Different? – Other Hard Issues Source: NatCen/ScotCen Mixed Mode Random Probability Panels Feb. 2017

  15. Does Scotland Want Something Different? – Soft Issues Source:NatCen/ ScotCen Mixed Mode Random Probability Panels Feb. 2017

  16. A Somewhat Different Balance of Priorities? Source NatCen/ScotCen Mixed Mode Random Probability Panels, Oct 17

  17. Asking About Variegation • Which of the following statements comes closer to your view about immigration after Britain has left the EU? • The rules on immigration from the EU should be the same in Scotland as they are in England and Wales • The rules on immigration from the EU should make it easier for someone from the EU to come to live in Scotland than in England and Wales • The rules on immigration from the EU should make it harder for someone from the EU to come to live in Scotland than in England and Wales

  18. Reluctance to Be Different Source: ScotCen Mixed Mode Random Probability Panels Feb/Oct 2017

  19. Asking About Otherwise Devolved EU Competences • At present, most of the government decisions about farming in Scotland are made by the European Union. After Britain has left the European Union, these decisions will have to be made by either the UK government or the Scottish Government instead. • Who do you think should make decisions about farming in Scotland after Britain has left the EU? • All decisions should be made by the Scottish Government • Some decisions should be made by the Scottish Government, some by the UK government • All decisions should be made by the UK government.

  20. Devolved Should Remain Devolved Source: ScotCen Mixed Mode Random Probability Panel Oct 17

  21. Update: Still A Similar Outlook on the Shape of Brexit? Source YouGov/People’s Vote 8-14.8.18

  22. Update: Similar Perceptions of The Likely Deal Source YouGov/People’s Vote 8-14.8.18

  23. More Pessimistic About The Economic Consequences Source YouGov/People’s Vote 8-14.8.18

  24. Including About Scotland’s Economy In Particular

  25. Attitudes towards How Scotland Should Be Governed, 1999-2017 Source: Scottish Social Attitudes

  26. How Brexit Cut Across IndyRef Source: 2015 British Election Study Internet Panel Waves 6 and 9

  27. Movements in Both Directions? Source: YouGov, Aug-Dec. 2016

  28. How Brexit Has Become A Dividing Line Source: Scottish Social Attitudes

  29. IndyRef2 Vote Intentions Since Brexit

  30. The Importance of Economic Expectations in the IndyRef Source: Scottish Social Attitudes

  31. How Yes Never Won the Economic Debate (Sufficiently) Source: ICM

  32. Has The Tide Turned? Source: Scottish Social Attitudes

  33. Conclusion • Scotland, like Britain as a whole, has responded ‘thermostatically’ to fiscal austerity – but beware of presuming this represents a shift f values to the ‘left’ • Scotland’s dislike of Brexit should not be mistaken for positive enthusiasm for the EU • The debate about Brexit has cut across the debate about independence – without, so far at least, shifting the overall numbers. • But as to what the future will bring…..

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