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Asia III. The Middle East Conflict :. Separating Fact from Fantasy. Dr. Martin Sherman. Singapore, Septembetr 2006. "Do whatever you want, you and your family in your home, worship whatever you want, but there has not been, or will be a church [in the kingdom].”

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Dr martin sherman

Asia III

The Middle East Conflict :

Separating Fact from Fantasy

Dr. Martin Sherman

Singapore, Septembetr 2006


Dr martin sherman

"Do whatever you want, you and your family in your home, worship whatever you want, but there has not been, or will be a church [in the kingdom].”

Prince Sultan of Saudi Arabia

The Christian population declined 29 percent in the West Bank and 20 percent in the Gaza Strip from 1997 to 2002. By contrast, in the period 1995–2003, Israel’s Arab Christian population grew 14.1 percent

(CAMERA, December 24, 2004).


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Bethlehem Christians under Palestinian Authority

►The Christian population was reduced from a 60% majority in 1990 to a 20% minority in 2001 (23,000)

► 1,640 Christians fled Bethlehem between Oct. 2000 and Nov. 2001

► More Beit Jala Christians reside in Belize (Central America) than are left in Beit Jalah itself.

► Before 1995, Bethlehem had a majority-Christian municipal council. After the PA take- over, Arafat replaced the municipal council with a predominately Muslim council. 51.2% of Christians in Beit Sahour are considering emigration

► 45% of Palestinian Christians in Bethlehem expressed growing fears of tensions between Christians and Muslims

► Mosques in Bethlehem: 1970 - 5 mosques; 2004 - 72 mosques


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?

The Authenticity

of the Palestinian Claims

?

The Legitimacy of Palestinian Narrative

?

The Relevance of a Palestinian State

?

The Feasibility of Alternative Solutions


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?

The Authenticity

of the Palestinian Claims


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There are no differences between Jordanians, Palestinians, Syrians and Lebanese. We are all part of one nation. It is only for political reasons that we carefully underline our Palestinian identity, because it is in the interest of the Arabs to encourage a separate Palestinian identity.

Yes, the existence of a separate Palestinian identity serves only tactical purposes. The founding of a Palestinian state is a new tool in the continuing battle against Israel.

Zuheir Muhsin, formerly the head of the PLO's Military Department and member of its Executive Council Dutch daily Trouw March 31, 1977

… Jordanians and Palestinians are considered by the PLO as one people.

Farouk Kadoumi, head of the PLO Political Department, Newsweek, on 14th March 1977.

The appearance of the Palestinian national personality

comes as an answer to Israel’s claim that Palestine is Jewish.

King Hussein, Amman, Nov. 1987


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The Palestinian National Charter

Article 1. Palestine, the homeland of the Palestinian Arab people, is an inseparable part of the greater Arab homeland, and the Palestinian people are a part of the Arab Nation.

Article 12: The Palestinian people believe in Arab unity. In order to contribute their share toward the attainment of that belief, however, they must, at the present stage of their struggle, safeguard their Palestinian identity and develop their consciousness of that identity, and oppose any plan that may dissolve or impair it.


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The Legitimacy of Palestinian Narrative


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Two Opposing Hypotheses to Account for the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

Conventional Wisdom:

The Fuel of the Conflict is the Absence of Palestinian Self Determination

The True Palestinian Aspiration is to Establisha State for Themselves

Alternative Wisdom:

The Fuel of the Conflict is the Existence of Jewish Self Determination

The True Palestinian Aspiration is to Dismantle a State for Jews


Dr martin sherman

Rejection of every territorial proposal, which would have allowed them to create a state of their own - from the 1947 partition plan to Barak's offer at Camp David in 2000

Rejection of a "two state solution", as evidenced in their rhetoric and symbolism in which they portray the whole the Land of Israel, from the Mediterranean Sea to the Jordan River, as part of Arab Palestine.

Palestinians refrained from demands to exert their national sovereignty in the pre-1967 "West Bank" and Gaza - as evidenced by the text of their original National Charter. Accept rule by a Hashemite Bedouin despot, who represents the minority in the land.

Rejection not only of the far-reaching generosity of the Barak proposal, but also the violent manner in which they rejected it. Although the proposals did include a proviso insisting on "end of conflict“, they were unprecedented in the concessions offered towards making a Palestinian state a feasible prospect. Palestinian response is explic-able only if "end of conflict" is an unacceptable concept for them.

Stubborn insistence on the "right of return“, which implies placing hundreds of thousands of Palestinians ( and possibly even more), now living in Arab countries, under Israeli jurisdiction, a position hardly consistent with an alleged desire to be free of oppressive Israeli control... or with an equitable two-state solution.


Dr martin sherman

Rejection of every territorial proposal, which would have allowed them to create a state of their own - from the 1947 partition plan to Barak's offer at Camp David in 2000


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Israel & the Arab World

Israel & the Moslem World


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Rejection of a "two state solution", as evidenced in their rhetoric and symbolism in which they portray the whole the Land of Israel, from the Mediterranean Sea to the Jordan River, as part of Arab Palestine.


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Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO)

Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine

Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine - GC

Palestinian Symbolism


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Palestinian Islamic Jihad

Hamas

Palestinian Symbolism


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Some Principles of the Hamas Charter

► Israel will exist and will continue to exist until Islam will obliterate it, just as it obliterated others before it.

► The Islamic Resistance Movement believes that the land of Palestine is an Islamic Waqf consecrated for future Moslem generations until Judgment Day. It, or any part of it, should not be squandered: it, or any part of it, should not be given up.

► There is no solution for the Palestinian question except through Jihad. Initiatives, proposals and international conferences are all a waste of time and vain endeavors.

Palestinian Rhetoric


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Fateh: The Movement's Essential Principles

http://www.fateh.net/e_public/constitution.htm

Article (6) UN projects, accords and resolutions, or those of any individual which undermine the Palestinian people's right in their homeland are illegal and rejected

Article (7) The Zionist Movement is racial, colonial and aggressive in ideology, goals, organization and method.

Article (8) The Israeli existence in Palestine is a Zionist invasion with a colonial expansive base, and it is a natural ally to colonialism and international imperialism

Palestinian Rhetoric (cont)

Goals

Article (12)Complete liberation of Palestine, and eradication of Zionist economic, political, military and cultural existence.

Article (13)Establishing an independent democratic state with complete sovereignty on all Palestinian lands, and Jerusalem is its capital city, and protecting the citizens' legal and equal rights without any racial or religious discrimination.  

Methods

Article (19)Armed struggle is a strategy and not a tactic, and the Palestinian Arab People's armed revolution is a decisive factor in the liberation fight and in uprooting the Zionist existence, and this struggle will not cease unless the Zionist state is demolished and Palestine is completely liberated


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The Nature of Zionism and the Existence of Israel

Fateh

Article (7)The Zionist Movement is racial, colonial and aggressive in ideology, goals, organization and method.

Article (8)The Israeli existence in Palestine is a Zionist invasion with a colonial expansive base, and it is a natural ally to colonialism and international imperialism

Hamas

The Zionist invasion is a mischievous one. It does not hesitate to take any road, or to pursue all despicable and repulsive means to fulfill its desires.


Dr martin sherman

Attitudes to Peace and Efforts of International Mediation

Fateh

Article (6) UN projects, accords and resolutions, or those of any individual which undermine the Palestinian people's right in their homeland are illegal and rejected

Article (22) Opposing any political solution offered as an alternative to demolishing the Zionist occupation in Palestine, as well as any project intended to liquidate the Palestinian case or impose any international mandate on its people.

Hamas

[Peace] initiatives, the so-called peaceful solutions, and the international conferences to resolve the Palestinian problem, are all contrary to the beliefs of the Islamic Resistance Movement….The initiatives, proposals and International Conferences are but a waste of time, an exercise in futility…Those conferences are no more than a means to appoint the nonbelievers as arbitrators in the lands of Islam. Since when did the Unbelievers do justice to the Believers?


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The Rejection of Any Non-Violent Resolution of the Conflict

Fateh

- Methods -

Article (19)Armed struggle is a strategy and not a tactic, and the Palestinian Arab People's armed revolution is a decisive factor in the liberation fight and in uprooting the Zionist existence, and this struggle will not cease unless the Zionist state is demolished and Palestine is completely liberated

Hamas

Israel will exist and will continue to exist until Islam will obliterate it, just as it obliterated others before it…There is no solution for the Palestinian question except through Jihad


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The Totality of the Repudiation of Israel

Fateh

- Goals -

Article (12) Complete liberation of Palestine, and eradication of Zionist economic, political, military and cultural existence

Hamas

The Islamic Resistance Movement believes that the land of Palestine is an Islamic Waqf consecrated for future Moslem generations until Judgment Day. It, or any part of it, should not be squandered: it, or any part of it, should not be given up…

Israel, by virtue of its being Jewish and of having a Jewish population, defies Islam and the Muslims.


Dr martin sherman

Palestinians refrained from demands to exert their national sovereignty in the pre-1967 "West Bank" and Gaza - as evidenced by the text of their original National Charter. Accept rule by a Hashemite Bedouin despot, who represents the minority in the land.


Dr martin sherman

THE PALESTINIAN NATIONAL CHARTER

Adopted in 1964 by the 1st Palestinian Conference

Article 16: The liberation of Palestine…is a defensive act necessitated by the demands of self-defense as stated in the Charter of the United Nations. For that, the people of Palestine… look forward to…restoring the legitimate situation to Palestine, establishing peace and security in its territory, and enabling its people to exercise national sovereignty...

Article 24: This Organization does not exercise any territorial sovereignty over the West Bank in the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, on the Gaza Strip or in the Himmah Area…


Dr martin sherman

Rejection not only of the far-reaching generosity of the Barak proposal, but also the violent manner in which they rejected it. Although the proposals did include a proviso insisting on "end of conflict“, they were unprecedented in the concessions offered towards making a Palestinian state a feasible prospect. Palestinian response is explicable only if "end of conflict" is an unacceptable concept for them.


Dr martin sherman

Stubborn insistence on the "right of return“, which implies placing hundreds of thousands of Palestinians ( and possibly even more), now living in Arab countries, under Israeli jurisdiction, a position hardly consistent with an alleged desire to be free of oppressive Israeli control... or with an equitable two-state solution.


Dr martin sherman

?

The Relevance of a Palestinian State


Dr martin sherman

The wave which bore the kind of claims for national self determination invoked by the Palestinians began in the forties with the end of WW-II, the breakup of empire and the casting off of colonial rule in far flung imperial territories with little generic affinity to the ruling European power in terms of its social, cultural or historical roots.

It peaked in the late 50s and early 60s andpetered out in the late 70s with virtually no political entities being granted independence from non-indigenous control after the mid-80s. The only significant subsequent additions of states to the international system, which had by that time to a large degree stabilized, were those that emerged from the dissolution of the Communist bloc in Eastern and Central Europe, the Balkans and Central Asia.

But this was a state-forming process entirely different in it political origins, in its political rationale and in its duration. It began in the 1990s and ended in the 1990s. It involved the disintegration of existing sovereign countries (or at least ostensibly sovereign countries) rather than disenfranchised people extricating themselves from alien control which emanated from distant centers of power in foreign capitals.


Dr martin sherman

The Palestinians have enjoyed:

Almost Universal International Endorsement of Their Claims

Highly Supportive International Media Coverage

Decades of Super Power Patronage

Highly Accommodative Israeli Regimes which not only Acknowledged but Identified with their Claims


Dr martin sherman

Over Half a Century of Proven Palestinian Political Incompetence and Administrative Failure -- Despite Highly Favorable Conditions Imply:

As a National Entity --the Palestinians have “Failed the Test of History”

As a Political Goal – a Palestinian State has become an Historical Anachronism and as such Should be Removed for the International Agenda


Dr martin sherman

The de-legitimization of the Palestinian narrative and the dismissal of Palestinian demands for statehood will not obviate the practical plight of hundreds of thousand essentially disenfranchised Palestinian families resident in Samaria, Judea and Gaza. This is a predicament that still must be addressed and – dissipated.

The major thrust of the effort should be directed along two major channels:

Generous monetary compensation to effect the relocation and rehabilitation of the Palestinian residents of Samaria, Judea and Gaza elsewhere.

"Atomization" of the issue by making the offer of compensation and relocation directly to the heads of families and not through any Palestinian organizational structure.


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The Feasibility of Alternative Solutions


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The feasibility of such a proposal should be analyzed on three separate levels:

The acceptability of the proposal of relocation finance to the prospective recipients.

The acceptability of the proposal to the prospective host countries that would become future domiciles for the relocated Palestinians.

The affordability of the economic cost of the proposal relative to other available options.


Dr martin sherman

The Feasibility of Two State Solutions

based on :-

► Significant Israeli Withdrawal

► Establishment of a Self Ruling Palestinian Entity in the Evacuated Territories

Another Issue of Feasibility that Should Be Addressed:

Feasibility of Long Term Israeli Survivabilty within the Context of a Palestinian State


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Feasibility of Long Term Israeli Survivabilty within the Context of a Palestinian State


Dr martin sherman

Water Line

Ben Gurion Airport

Tel Aviv Area

1976 Green Line

Jordan Valley


Dr martin sherman

● Major Air Fields - Civilian and Military

● Major Sea Ports and Naval Bases

●Principal Power Stations

●Sweet Water System

●Crucial Communications and Transport Systems

● Vital Centers of Military Command & Control, and Centers of Civilian Government

●80% of the Population and 80%of the Economic Activity


Dr martin sherman

What these two senators [Byrd and Dole] assume is that somehow or other, some Arab state has a right to claim that anything beyond the Green Line is Arab territory under 242 and 338. This is exactly contrary to its provisions and its purpose…. [T]here is an important document which has now been released. It is useful in interpreting Resolution 242 because it reveals part of what the U.S. government had in mind in pushing the resolution through. It is a map of the area, showing the places of particular security concern to Israel. The map was prepared by the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who made a study of Israeli security …to advise the President on what the security concerns of Israel were.*

The study advised …that the security of Israel required Israel to receive parts of the territory of the West Bank as essential to its defense. In fact, all the studies of the Israeli security problem reached the same conclusion – from the security point of view, Israel must hold the high points in the West Bank and areas along the Jordan River.

I do not know if the Joint Chiefs of Staff would draw a different map today, but I doubt is very much.

* See Appendix D. Editor

Eugene V. Rostow, “The Peace-Making Process and UN Resolutions 242 and 338” in Israel’s Legitimacy in Law and History, New York: Center for Near East Policy Research, 1993


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Head of Military Intelligence: The Arabs Demand 60 Percent of Israel’s Water


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Territorial Concessions =

Multi Dimensional Threat !!

(a) Length – Extent of Frontiers

(b) Width – No “Strategic Depth”

(c) Height – Topographical Inferiority

(d) Depth – Hydrological Dependency


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The acceptability of the proposal of relocation finance to the prospective recipients.


Dr martin sherman

The Palestinian GNP was 38% lower in 2002 than in 1999, according to a World Bank report on the impact of the first 27 months of the intifada.

The World Bank reports that unemployment amounted to 37% of the labor force at the end of 2002. The stricter standards utilized by the International Labor Organization (ILO), which only include people actively seeking work in the labor force, show 27% unemployment at the end of 2002.

Per capita income fell by over 46%, compared with 1999, and the poverty rate, defined as less than $2.10 a day in income, was almost 60% of the population, compared with 21% on the eve of the intifada. The Palestinian population grew by 13% between 1999 and 2002.

http://www.globes.co.il/DocsEn/did=704221.htm


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Country/Grouping

GNP per capita

Years of GNP per capita per $100,000

Years of GNP per capita per $150,000

World Average

5830

17

26

Palestinian Administ’d Territories*

1600

64

94

Central America

1980

51

78

South America

3340

30

45

North Africa

1790

56

84

OPEC

1770

57

86

Jordan

1630

61

92

Egypt

1340

75

112

Morocco

1150

87

130

Tunisia

2110

47

71

Indonesia

600

167

250

India

448

223

334

Pakistan

443

225

338

Kenya

351

285

427

Nigeria

790

127

190

Source: US Department of State – WMEAT 1999-2000.

*USAID - 2000


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Continue life under the Rigors of Israeli Control

Life under and even more repressive and regressive Palestinian Regime

Accept the Relocation Grant and build a new life of himself and his family

Accept the Relocation Grant and build a new life of himself and his family

Relocation and Rehabilitation as Individual Rational Choice

The individual Palestinian would have the following choices:


Dr martin sherman

Palestinian Survey

42% state that they have considered emigrating permanently to some other country

In answer to the question "What would induce you to emigrate permanently, only 15% stated that nothing would induce them. Over 70% specified one or more material factors that would induce to emigrate permanently them such as substantial financial compensation; guarantee of a good job abroad; a good level of housing

Suvey was conducted by face to face interviews on 15-21 Nov, 2004 during various hours of the , by means of a structured questionnaire in Arabic, among a random sample of 528 interviewees, representative of the adult population in Judea and Samaria(17yrs of age and above). Statistical margin of error 4.5%. The sampling and the interviews were conducted by pollsters of THE PALESTINIAN CENTER FOR PUBLIC OPINION. The questionnaire design , the data input, the statistical processing, the formulation of final report were done by Maagar Mohot Ltd. The survey was conducted by Maagar Mohot Interdisciplinary Research and Consulting Institute Ltd, under the supervision of Prof, Yitzhak Katz, Prof. Baruch Mevorach – Scientific Director, and Amir Horkin, Research Manager ,in collaboration with THE PALESTINIAN CENTER FOR PUBLIC OPINION under the management of Dr.Nabil Kokli


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The acceptability of the proposal to the prospective host countries that would become future domiciles for the relocated Palestinians.


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For the prospective host countries – either dominantly Arab or Moslem countries; or countries with significant Arab/Moslem communities in Africa and Asia – the proposal entails significant economic potential

For the Palestinians arriving at their gates will not be impoverished refugees, but relatively prosperous individuals with saving the equivalent of decades of GNP per capita in their pockets. This will confer on them, if not the status of substantial, investors at least that of potential small entrepreneurs.

Indeed, for every 100 Palestinian families received, the host country could count on the influx of around 10-15 million dollars directly into the private sector. Absorbing 2500 new Palestinianfamily units could mean the injection of quarter billiondollars or more, into the local economy of countries direly in need of such funds.

Thus should rationality prevail, the global community has the rare opportunity of generating a genuine win-win situation for all concerned - except for the failed fraudulent and fanatic Palestinian leadership.


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The affordability of the economic cost of the proposal relative to other available options.


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The first two years of the Palestinian violence cost the Israeli economy approximately US$ 8 billion. (Haaretz)

Bank of Israel sources gave almost the same estimates and projected a similar loss [the future] (Globes).


Dr martin sherman

The total outlay required for the relocation of the refugee population will be between US $ 35 – 52.5 billion (depending on whether the relocation grant was US$ 100,000 or 150,000).

The cost of war in Iraq war has reached about US $ 300 billion and could by some estimates eventually reach considerably more than that figure.

Extending the relocation to the entire Palestinian population would effectively entail doubling the required outlay to US $ 70 –105 billion.

Israel's GNP is around US$ 100 billion . Thus if it was prepared to devote annually 3-5% of its GNP to the resolution of the Palestinian problem in the humanitarian context – i.e. an annual sum of US$ 3-5 billion - the entire project could conceivably be implemented within a decade and a half.


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The Case for an Independent Nation State

Israel

Palestinians

Unique Religion

Unique Language

Unique Script

Unique History

Unique Customs


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Palestinian Statehood as a Historical Anachronism

Superior Jewish

Claims to

Self Determination

Re-Legitimize the Zionist Narrative

Two Competing Hypotheses

Mutually Exclusive,

Irreconcilable National Claims

No credible capable Palestinian leadership has emerged

Proven Palestinian Political IncompetenceFailure despite very favorable conditions

Palestinians Failed test of history

Don’t Deserve

Statehood

De-legitimization of Palestinian Narrative

Don’t desire Statehood

Remove the Issue of Palestinian Statehood from Int’l Agenda

Revealed Preferences:

Declarations & Deeds

Rejected every territorial proposal

Palestinian Behavior and Decisions

The Human Predicament Persists

Abandon Political Paradigm;

Adopt Humanitarian one


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Redefine the Palestinian Problem

– and the Nature of its Solution

Cast in Humanitarian - Rather than Political - Terms

Concentrate on Dealing with the GenuineHumanitarianPredicament on Individual Basis - Rather than Fulfilling Spurious Political Demands


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Feasibility

Territorial Compromise

Relocation and Rehabilitation

Individual Recipients

Host Countries

Economic Cost


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Improve dramatically the lot of individual Palestinians

Defuse the Palestinian humanitarian predicament

Ensure the continued survival of Israel as the nation state of the Jewish people

Inject billions of dollars of funds in to the economies of low income nations


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La Victoire, elle comme Dieu – si on y croit, elle existe

אם תרצו – אין זו אגדה

We Shall Overcome


Dr martin sherman

Asia III

Thank You for Your Attention

Dr. Martin Sherman

Singapore, Septembetr 2006


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