1 / 20

Multimedia Teleconferencing vs. the Fax Machine

Multimedia Teleconferencing vs. the Fax Machine. Andrew W. Davis Managing Partner Wainhouse Research LLC andrewwd@wainhouse.com. What History Teaches Us…. Fax concept invented 1843, first intercity fax Munich to Berlin 1907… 300,000 in use in 1983, 4,000,000 in 1989 (80 years after demo)

santos
Download Presentation

Multimedia Teleconferencing vs. the Fax Machine

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Multimedia Teleconferencing vs.the Fax Machine Andrew W. Davis Managing PartnerWainhouse Research LLC andrewwd@wainhouse.com

  2. What History Teaches Us…. • Fax concept invented 1843, first intercity fax Munich to Berlin 1907… 300,000 in use in 1983, 4,000,000 in 1989 (80 years after demo) • TV: Invented in the 20’s….used in the 50’s (30 years) • Microwave: invented 50’s….used 70’s (20 years) • Internet: invented 70’s….used 90’s (20 years)

  3. What History Teaches Us…. • Fax concept invented 1843, first intercity fax Munich to Berlin 1907… 300,000 in use in 1983, 4,000,000 in 1989 (150 years) • TV: Invented in the 20’s….used in the 50’s (30 years) • Microwave: 50’s….used 70’s (20 years) • Internet: 70’s….used 90’s (20 years) • H.323: invented 1996….. Popular 2016… so we still have time, be patient

  4. The Convergence of Price, Performance, & Plumbing

  5. Next Gen User Rqmts Mainstream Room Rqmts Innovator’s Dilemma Room Videoconferencing Systems DSP Capabilities Quality Reliability Ease-of-Use, etc. Host Capabilities Time

  6. Mainstream Rqmts Innovator’s Dilemma Desktop Videoconferencing Systems Quality Reliability Ease-of-Use, etc. Capabilities Time

  7. Global drivers are changing the opportunities

  8. Global Pressures - Technology • High rates of change • Growth in (data) communications traffic • IP infrastructure growth • Availability of bandwidth • LAN, MAN, and WAN • Interest in converged networks for efficiency and next-gen applications • Mobility solutions

  9. Global Pressures - Enterprise • Competition • Time to market • Costs and productivity • Administrative overhead • Globalization • Suppliers, customers, competitors • Higher costs and inefficiencies of business travel • Distributed work teams need distributed knowledge • Employee communications • Morale, effectiveness, retention, recruiting

  10. September 11, 2001 - Travel • Business travel time will increase • Flight check in will take longer • Baggage handling will take longer • Schedule delays will be even more common • Travel convenience will decrease • Airline security will be tighter, limited carry-on • Flight availability will decrease • Ticket prices will increase • FUD factor will affect some individuals

  11. Business Travel Videoconferencing Short-term bubble Long-term growth Society and Technology Pain, Inconvenience, Inefficiency, and General Inadequacy Time

  12. What is still needed…. • Ease-of-implementation • Ease-of-use • Ubiquitous Bandwidth • Acceptance • Functionality for enterprise

  13. Videoconferencing History Unit Shipments (K) 140 120 Desktop Units 100 80 60 40 Group Units 20 0 Y94 Y95 Y96 Y97 Y98 Y99 Y00

  14. VC Endpoints Total Revenues ($M) $800 Desktop $700 $600 $500 $400 Group $300 $200 $100 $0 Y94 Y95 Y96 Y97 Y98 Y99 Y00

  15. Group Videoconferencing Recent History $180 25,000 $170 20,000 $160 $150 15,000 $140 10,000 $130 $120 5,000 $110 $100 0 q1-00 q2-00 q3-00 q4-00 q1-01 q2-01 Group $ Group Units

  16. Desktop Videoconferencing Recent History $16 30,000 $14 25,000 $12 20,000 $10 15,000 $8 10,000 $6 5,000 $4 0 q1-00 q2-00 q3-00 q4-00 q1-01 q2-01 DVC $ DVC Units

  17. Moving Forward • In the end, the next generation of IP equipment MUST simply work • Complexity must be hidden from the user • Aggressive role of IP network providers is crucial • Vendors must step up to end-to-end solutions • Videoconferencing at home could be a driver for enterprise adoption • We have to stop fooling ourselves about quality (POTS, latency), reliability (ISDN), ease-of-use (IP, user interfaces, firewalls,……

  18. IM: Disruptive Technologyor Catalyst for Growth ?? Microsoft Messenger for Windows XP • Text, Audio, Data, Video (SIP!) conferencingin an IM-based cassis • Is it really all aboutPresence? • 14% of PCs have web cameras • “Free” w/Windows XP • Due October 25 Yahoo and AOL IM too …

  19. In the End The need to communicate, market, sell, and train while containing costs will win out over IT concerns about running audio and video over the ENTERPRISE network

  20. The End Thank You Wainhouse Research, LLC Andrewwd@wainhouse.com

More Related