The father s day 2002 severe weather outbreak across new york and western new england
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The Father’s Day 2002 Severe Weather Outbreak across New York and Western New England. Thomas A. Wasula NOAA/NWS WFO at Albany. CSTAR Warm Season Project. Kenneth LaPenta NOAA/NWS WFO at Albany Jessica Najuch, Dr. Lance Bosart, and Dr. Daniel Keyser

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The Father’s Day 2002 Severe Weather Outbreak across New York and Western New England

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The father s day 2002 severe weather outbreak across new york and western new england

The Father’s Day 2002 Severe Weather Outbreak across New York and Western New England

Thomas A. Wasula

NOAA/NWS WFO at Albany


Cstar warm season project

CSTAR Warm Season Project

Kenneth LaPenta

NOAA/NWS WFO at Albany

Jessica Najuch, Dr. Lance Bosart, and Dr. Daniel Keyser

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University at Albany/SUNY


Background climatology on closed cutoff lows

Background Climatology on Closed/Cutoff Lows

  • Several patterns or categories of Closed Lows were developed from a subjective analysis done from May 1- September 30, 1980-2000 based on one closed isoheight for at least 24 hours.

  • The domain was from 36º-48ºN and 65º-88ºW, which is primarily east of the Mississippi River, excluding the Southeast, and south of Hudson Bay.

  • The predominant patterns/categories of closed lows were the re-curving Great Lakes and Northwest.


June 16 2002 father s day

June 16, 2002 Father’s Day

  • A Closed Low approaching from the Eastern Great Lakes Region

  • A concentrated severe weather outbreak produced hail, straight line winds and tornadoes.

  • Strong mid-level jet was moving through Eastern NY and New England coupled with a 500 hPa cold pool aloft (steep mid-level lapse rates), surface trough and moderate to high CAPE values.


Fo tornado near amsterdam in montgomery county

FO Tornado near Amsterdam in Montgomery County


F1 tornado in southeast dutchess county

F1 Tornado in southeast Dutchess County


June 16 2002 severe weather

June 16, 2002 Severe Weather


The father s day 2002 severe weather outbreak across new york and western new england

Eastern New York and Southern New England Severe Weather on June 16, 2002 – Fathers Day

  • NY-MA-CT

  • 19 Hail reports

  • 8 Wind reports

  • 4 Tornado reports

Source: Storm Data


Raob 500 hpa heights and temps 16 june 2002 1200 utc father s day

RAOB 500 hPa Heights and Temps 16 June 2002/1200 UTC Father’s Day


The father s day 2002 severe weather outbreak across new york and western new england

16 June 2002/1200 UTC 700 hPa RAOB Heights, Temperatures, and Dewpoints

http://www.spc.noaa.gov


The father s day 2002 severe weather outbreak across new york and western new england

16 June 2002/ 1200 UTC 850 hPa RAOB Heights, Temperatures, and Dewpoints

http://www.spc.noaa.gov


1200 utc 16 june 2002 surface map

1200 UTC 16 June 2002 Surface Map


The father s day 2002 severe weather outbreak across new york and western new england

ETA: 16 June 2002/1200 UTC Initial Analysis

MSLP (hPa) Solid lines and 1000-500 (hPa) thickness dashed

500 hPa Heights (dam) solid lines and Absolute Vorticity (10x-5s-1) shaded


The father s day 2002 severe weather outbreak across new york and western new england

ETA: 16 June 2002/1200 UTC Initial Analysis

850 hPa Heights (dam) solid lines, Isotachs (m s-1) shaded and theta-e (K) dashed

250 hPa Heights (dam) Solid lines and Isotachs (m s-1) shaded


The father s day 2002 severe weather outbreak across new york and western new england

ETA: 16 June 2002/1200 UTC Initial Analysis

500 hPa Vorticity Advection (x10-10 s-1) shaded and Heights (dam) solid lines

250 hPa Heights (dam) solid lines and Isotachs (m s-1) shaded


The father s day 2002 severe weather outbreak across new york and western new england

ETA: 16 June 2002/1200 UTC Initial Analysis

MSLP (hPa) Solid lines and 1000-500 hPa thickness dashed and 700 hPa RH (>70%) shaded

850 hPa Heights (m) solid lines and Temperature Advection (x10-5°C/sec)


The father s day 2002 severe weather outbreak across new york and western new england

ETA: 16 June 2002/1200 UTC Initial Analysis

850 hPa Winds (kts), 850-500 hPa lapse rates (°C) and theta-e (K) shaded

700 hPa Heights (m) solid lines and omega (microbars/second); Warm colors indicate ascent and cool colors descent


The father s day 2002 severe weather outbreak across new york and western new england

ETA: 16 June 2002/1200 UTC Initial Analysis

250 hPa Divergence (x10-5 s-1) solid contours and Isotachs (m s-1) shaded every 10 m s-1


Modified aly 16 june 2002 1200 utc sounding

Modified ALY 16 June 2002/1200 UTC Sounding


Convective parameters

Convective Parameters

  • CAPE = 1581 J/kg (Range for region 500-2000 J/kg)

  • Lifted Index = -5

  • Total Totals = 47

  • Freezing Level = 8.4 kft

  • Wet Bulb Zero = 6.8 kft

  • 700 – 500 hPa lapse rate = 6.5 °C/km

  • Energy Helicity Index = 0.6

  • Storm Relative Helicity = -57 (m/s)2 (0-3 km)

  • Precipitable Water = 0.81”


Eta 16 june 2002 1200 utc 6 hr forecasts for 1800 utc

ETA: 16 June 2002/1200 UTC 6-hr Forecasts for 1800 UTC


The father s day 2002 severe weather outbreak across new york and western new england

ETA: 16 June 2002/1200 UTC 6-hr Forecast for 1800 UTC

MSLP (hPa) Solid lines and 1000-500 (hPa) thickness dashed

500 hPa Heights (dam) solid lines and Absolute Vorticity (10x-5s-1) shaded


The father s day 2002 severe weather outbreak across new york and western new england

ETA: 16 June 2002/1200 UTC 6-hr forecast for 1800 UTC

850 hPa Heights (dam) solid lines, Isotachs (m s-1) shaded and theta-e (K) dashed

250 hPa Heights (dam) Solid lines and Isotachs (m s-1) shaded


The father s day 2002 severe weather outbreak across new york and western new england

ETA: 16 June 2002/1200 UTC 6-hr Forecast for 1800 UTC

MSLP (hPa) Solid lines and 1000-500 hPa thickness dashed and 700 hPa RH (>70%) shaded

850 hPa Heights (m) solid lines and Temperature Advection (x10-5°C/sec)


The father s day 2002 severe weather outbreak across new york and western new england

ETA: 16 June 2002/1200 UTC 6-hr Forecast 1800 UTC

***ETA forecasting upward vertical motion coupled with forecasted 850-500 hPa lapse rates of 6-7°C/km

850 hPa Winds (kts), 850-500 hPa lapse rates (°C) and theta-e (K) shaded

700 hPa Heights (m) solid lines and omega (microbars/second); Warm colors indicate ascent and cool colors descent


The father s day 2002 severe weather outbreak across new york and western new england

ETA: 16 June 2002/1200 UTC 6-hr Forecast 1800 UTC

***ETA forecasts a strengthening of the upper level jet streak, and southern NY on cyclonic exit region with a large divergence maxima just off the New England Coast

250 hPa Divergence (x10-5 s-1) solid contours and Isotachs (m s-1) shaded every 10 m s-1


The father s day 2002 severe weather outbreak across new york and western new england

Visible Satellite Picture 16 June 2002/1615 UTC


The father s day 2002 severe weather outbreak across new york and western new england

1500 UTC Surface Map (MSLP solid and Temps dashed)

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Kenx radar analysis of severe weather across ny and new england

KENX Radar Analysis of Severe Weather across NY and New England

  • Overview of convective evolution

  • Analysis of the Florida/Amsterdam FO Tornado

  • Brief Highlights of Hail and Wind Events

  • Briefly analyze Dutchess/Litchfield County Tornado from a supercell


The father s day 2002 severe weather outbreak across new york and western new england

1557 UTC KENX 0.5° Base Reflectivity

ALY


The father s day 2002 severe weather outbreak across new york and western new england

1650 UTC KENX 0.5° Base Reflectivity


The father s day 2002 severe weather outbreak across new york and western new england

KENX 0.5° Base Reflectivity Loop 1702 UTC to 1856 UTC


The father s day 2002 severe weather outbreak across new york and western new england

1638 UTC KENX 0.5° Base Reflectivity

1638 UTC KENX 0.5° SRM


The father s day 2002 severe weather outbreak across new york and western new england

1644 UTC KENX 0.5° Base Reflectivity

1644 UTC KENX 0.5° SRM


The father s day 2002 severe weather outbreak across new york and western new england

1650 UTC KENX 0.5° Base Reflectivity

1650 UTC KENX 0.5° SRM


The father s day 2002 severe weather outbreak across new york and western new england

1656 UTC KENX 0.5° Base Reflectivity

1656 UTC KENX 0.5° SRM


The father s day 2002 severe weather outbreak across new york and western new england

1702 UTC KENX 0.5° Base Reflectivity

1702 UTC KENX 0.5° SRM


Amsterdam florida fo tornado

Amsterdam/Florida FO Tornado

***Tornado first reported at 1650 UTC***


The father s day 2002 severe weather outbreak across new york and western new england

KENX 1656 UTC VAD Wind Profile


The father s day 2002 severe weather outbreak across new york and western new england

1737 UTC KENX VIL Product

MAX VIL=44 kg/m2

VIL of Day was around 35 kg/m2

1.50” hail in Columbia County


The father s day 2002 severe weather outbreak across new york and western new england

1749 UTC KENX Composite Reflectivity


The father s day 2002 severe weather outbreak across new york and western new england

1749 UTC KENX Composite Reflectivity Cross-Section in Columbia County


The father s day 2002 severe weather outbreak across new york and western new england

1813 UTC KENX VIL and MESO

1813 UTC KENX 0.5° Velocity

ALY

MAX VIL = 38 kg/m2


The father s day 2002 severe weather outbreak across new york and western new england

1842 UTC KENX 0.5° SRM – Pawling Tornado in Dutchess Co.


The father s day 2002 severe weather outbreak across new york and western new england

1842 UTC KENX 0.5° Base Reflectivity


The father s day 2002 severe weather outbreak across new york and western new england

1848 UTC KENX 0.5° Base Reflectivity


The father s day 2002 severe weather outbreak across new york and western new england

1854 UTC KENX 0.5° Base Reflectivity


The father s day 2002 severe weather outbreak across new york and western new england

1900 UTC KENX 0.5° Base Reflectivity


Preliminary results

Preliminary Results

  • 500 hPa Closed low off the Eastern Great Lakes help initiate convective outbreak.

  • Surface trough coupled with steep mid-level lapse rates (cold pool aloft), low wet-bulb zero values, high CAPE values (large instability) and dewpoints in the 50’s and lower 60’s fueled organized low topped multicelluar convection that coalesced into a line…with a supercell south of it.

  • Locations hit by convection were situated in the cyclonic exit region/left front quad of the 250 hPa upper level jet.

  • Tornadic development was aided by large instability and shallow low-level veering (Sfc to 850 hPa). Predominant flow aloft (mid and upper-levels) was Southwesterly.


Future work

Future Work

  • To further develop the mesoscale analysis with the use of profiler data.

  • To examine KOKX radar data for Pawling tornado.

  • To examine the local terrain effects on the tornadic development.

  • Compare this closed low case with others done in the CSTAR project(s).


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