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The Father’s Day 2002 Severe Weather Outbreak across New York and Western New England. Thomas A. Wasula NOAA/NWS WFO at Albany. CSTAR Warm Season Project. Kenneth LaPenta NOAA/NWS WFO at Albany Jessica Najuch, Dr. Lance Bosart, and Dr. Daniel Keyser

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the father s day 2002 severe weather outbreak across new york and western new england

The Father’s Day 2002 Severe Weather Outbreak across New York and Western New England

Thomas A. Wasula

NOAA/NWS WFO at Albany

cstar warm season project
CSTAR Warm Season Project

Kenneth LaPenta

NOAA/NWS WFO at Albany

Jessica Najuch, Dr. Lance Bosart, and Dr. Daniel Keyser

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University at Albany/SUNY

background climatology on closed cutoff lows
Background Climatology on Closed/Cutoff Lows
  • Several patterns or categories of Closed Lows were developed from a subjective analysis done from May 1- September 30, 1980-2000 based on one closed isoheight for at least 24 hours.
  • The domain was from 36º-48ºN and 65º-88ºW, which is primarily east of the Mississippi River, excluding the Southeast, and south of Hudson Bay.
  • The predominant patterns/categories of closed lows were the re-curving Great Lakes and Northwest.
june 16 2002 father s day
June 16, 2002 Father’s Day
  • A Closed Low approaching from the Eastern Great Lakes Region
  • A concentrated severe weather outbreak produced hail, straight line winds and tornadoes.
  • Strong mid-level jet was moving through Eastern NY and New England coupled with a 500 hPa cold pool aloft (steep mid-level lapse rates), surface trough and moderate to high CAPE values.
slide12

Eastern New York and Southern New England Severe Weather on June 16, 2002 – Fathers Day

  • NY-MA-CT
  • 19 Hail reports
  • 8 Wind reports
  • 4 Tornado reports

Source: Storm Data

slide17

ETA: 16 June 2002/1200 UTC Initial Analysis

MSLP (hPa) Solid lines and 1000-500 (hPa) thickness dashed

500 hPa Heights (dam) solid lines and Absolute Vorticity (10x-5s-1) shaded

slide18

ETA: 16 June 2002/1200 UTC Initial Analysis

850 hPa Heights (dam) solid lines, Isotachs (m s-1) shaded and theta-e (K) dashed

250 hPa Heights (dam) Solid lines and Isotachs (m s-1) shaded

slide19

ETA: 16 June 2002/1200 UTC Initial Analysis

500 hPa Vorticity Advection (x10-10 s-1) shaded and Heights (dam) solid lines

250 hPa Heights (dam) solid lines and Isotachs (m s-1) shaded

slide20

ETA: 16 June 2002/1200 UTC Initial Analysis

MSLP (hPa) Solid lines and 1000-500 hPa thickness dashed and 700 hPa RH (>70%) shaded

850 hPa Heights (m) solid lines and Temperature Advection (x10-5°C/sec)

slide21

ETA: 16 June 2002/1200 UTC Initial Analysis

850 hPa Winds (kts), 850-500 hPa lapse rates (°C) and theta-e (K) shaded

700 hPa Heights (m) solid lines and omega (microbars/second); Warm colors indicate ascent and cool colors descent

slide22

ETA: 16 June 2002/1200 UTC Initial Analysis

250 hPa Divergence (x10-5 s-1) solid contours and Isotachs (m s-1) shaded every 10 m s-1

convective parameters
Convective Parameters
  • CAPE = 1581 J/kg (Range for region 500-2000 J/kg)
  • Lifted Index = -5
  • Total Totals = 47
  • Freezing Level = 8.4 kft
  • Wet Bulb Zero = 6.8 kft
  • 700 – 500 hPa lapse rate = 6.5 °C/km
  • Energy Helicity Index = 0.6
  • Storm Relative Helicity = -57 (m/s)2 (0-3 km)
  • Precipitable Water = 0.81”
slide26

ETA: 16 June 2002/1200 UTC 6-hr Forecast for 1800 UTC

MSLP (hPa) Solid lines and 1000-500 (hPa) thickness dashed

500 hPa Heights (dam) solid lines and Absolute Vorticity (10x-5s-1) shaded

slide27

ETA: 16 June 2002/1200 UTC 6-hr forecast for 1800 UTC

850 hPa Heights (dam) solid lines, Isotachs (m s-1) shaded and theta-e (K) dashed

250 hPa Heights (dam) Solid lines and Isotachs (m s-1) shaded

slide28

ETA: 16 June 2002/1200 UTC 6-hr Forecast for 1800 UTC

MSLP (hPa) Solid lines and 1000-500 hPa thickness dashed and 700 hPa RH (>70%) shaded

850 hPa Heights (m) solid lines and Temperature Advection (x10-5°C/sec)

slide29

ETA: 16 June 2002/1200 UTC 6-hr Forecast 1800 UTC

***ETA forecasting upward vertical motion coupled with forecasted 850-500 hPa lapse rates of 6-7°C/km

850 hPa Winds (kts), 850-500 hPa lapse rates (°C) and theta-e (K) shaded

700 hPa Heights (m) solid lines and omega (microbars/second); Warm colors indicate ascent and cool colors descent

slide30

ETA: 16 June 2002/1200 UTC 6-hr Forecast 1800 UTC

***ETA forecasts a strengthening of the upper level jet streak, and southern NY on cyclonic exit region with a large divergence maxima just off the New England Coast

250 hPa Divergence (x10-5 s-1) solid contours and Isotachs (m s-1) shaded every 10 m s-1

kenx radar analysis of severe weather across ny and new england
KENX Radar Analysis of Severe Weather across NY and New England
  • Overview of convective evolution
  • Analysis of the Florida/Amsterdam FO Tornado
  • Brief Highlights of Hail and Wind Events
  • Briefly analyze Dutchess/Litchfield County Tornado from a supercell
amsterdam florida fo tornado
Amsterdam/Florida FO Tornado

***Tornado first reported at 1650 UTC***

slide44

1737 UTC KENX VIL Product

MAX VIL=44 kg/m2

VIL of Day was around 35 kg/m2

1.50” hail in Columbia County

slide47

1813 UTC KENX VIL and MESO

1813 UTC KENX 0.5° Velocity

ALY

MAX VIL = 38 kg/m2

preliminary results
Preliminary Results
  • 500 hPa Closed low off the Eastern Great Lakes help initiate convective outbreak.
  • Surface trough coupled with steep mid-level lapse rates (cold pool aloft), low wet-bulb zero values, high CAPE values (large instability) and dewpoints in the 50’s and lower 60’s fueled organized low topped multicelluar convection that coalesced into a line…with a supercell south of it.
  • Locations hit by convection were situated in the cyclonic exit region/left front quad of the 250 hPa upper level jet.
  • Tornadic development was aided by large instability and shallow low-level veering (Sfc to 850 hPa). Predominant flow aloft (mid and upper-levels) was Southwesterly.
future work
Future Work
  • To further develop the mesoscale analysis with the use of profiler data.
  • To examine KOKX radar data for Pawling tornado.
  • To examine the local terrain effects on the tornadic development.
  • Compare this closed low case with others done in the CSTAR project(s).
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