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The Father’s Day 2002 Severe Weather Outbreak across New York and Western New England. Thomas A. Wasula NOAA/NWS WFO at Albany. CSTAR Warm Season Project. Kenneth LaPenta NOAA/NWS WFO at Albany Jessica Najuch, Dr. Lance Bosart, and Dr. Daniel Keyser

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The father s day 2002 severe weather outbreak across new york and western new england

The Father’s Day 2002 Severe Weather Outbreak across New York and Western New England

Thomas A. Wasula

NOAA/NWS WFO at Albany


Cstar warm season project
CSTAR Warm Season Project York and Western New England

Kenneth LaPenta

NOAA/NWS WFO at Albany

Jessica Najuch, Dr. Lance Bosart, and Dr. Daniel Keyser

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University at Albany/SUNY


Background climatology on closed cutoff lows
Background Climatology on Closed/Cutoff Lows York and Western New England

  • Several patterns or categories of Closed Lows were developed from a subjective analysis done from May 1- September 30, 1980-2000 based on one closed isoheight for at least 24 hours.

  • The domain was from 36º-48ºN and 65º-88ºW, which is primarily east of the Mississippi River, excluding the Southeast, and south of Hudson Bay.

  • The predominant patterns/categories of closed lows were the re-curving Great Lakes and Northwest.


June 16 2002 father s day
June 16, 2002 Father’s Day York and Western New England

  • A Closed Low approaching from the Eastern Great Lakes Region

  • A concentrated severe weather outbreak produced hail, straight line winds and tornadoes.

  • Strong mid-level jet was moving through Eastern NY and New England coupled with a 500 hPa cold pool aloft (steep mid-level lapse rates), surface trough and moderate to high CAPE values.


Fo tornado near amsterdam in montgomery county
FO Tornado near Amsterdam in York and Western New EnglandMontgomery County


F1 tornado in southeast dutchess county
F1 Tornado in southeast Dutchess County York and Western New England


June 16 2002 severe weather
June 16, 2002 Severe Weather York and Western New England


Eastern New York and Southern New England Severe Weather on June 16, 2002 – Fathers Day

  • NY-MA-CT

  • 19 Hail reports

  • 8 Wind reports

  • 4 Tornado reports

Source: Storm Data


Raob 500 hpa heights and temps 16 june 2002 1200 utc father s day
RAOB 500 hPa Heights and Temps June 16, 2002 – Fathers Day16 June 2002/1200 UTC Father’s Day


16 June 2002/1200 UTC 700 hPa RAOB Heights, Temperatures, and Dewpoints

http://www.spc.noaa.gov


16 June 2002/ 1200 UTC 850 hPa RAOB Heights, Temperatures, and Dewpoints

http://www.spc.noaa.gov



ETA: 16 June 2002/1200 UTC Initial Analysis and Dewpoints

MSLP (hPa) Solid lines and 1000-500 (hPa) thickness dashed

500 hPa Heights (dam) solid lines and Absolute Vorticity (10x-5s-1) shaded


ETA: 16 June 2002/1200 UTC Initial Analysis and Dewpoints

850 hPa Heights (dam) solid lines, Isotachs (m s-1) shaded and theta-e (K) dashed

250 hPa Heights (dam) Solid lines and Isotachs (m s-1) shaded


ETA: 16 June 2002/1200 UTC Initial Analysis and Dewpoints

500 hPa Vorticity Advection (x10-10 s-1) shaded and Heights (dam) solid lines

250 hPa Heights (dam) solid lines and Isotachs (m s-1) shaded


ETA: 16 June 2002/1200 UTC Initial Analysis and Dewpoints

MSLP (hPa) Solid lines and 1000-500 hPa thickness dashed and 700 hPa RH (>70%) shaded

850 hPa Heights (m) solid lines and Temperature Advection (x10-5°C/sec)


ETA: 16 June 2002/1200 UTC Initial Analysis and Dewpoints

850 hPa Winds (kts), 850-500 hPa lapse rates (°C) and theta-e (K) shaded

700 hPa Heights (m) solid lines and omega (microbars/second); Warm colors indicate ascent and cool colors descent


ETA: 16 June 2002/1200 UTC Initial Analysis and Dewpoints

250 hPa Divergence (x10-5 s-1) solid contours and Isotachs (m s-1) shaded every 10 m s-1



Convective parameters
Convective Parameters and Dewpoints

  • CAPE = 1581 J/kg (Range for region 500-2000 J/kg)

  • Lifted Index = -5

  • Total Totals = 47

  • Freezing Level = 8.4 kft

  • Wet Bulb Zero = 6.8 kft

  • 700 – 500 hPa lapse rate = 6.5 °C/km

  • Energy Helicity Index = 0.6

  • Storm Relative Helicity = -57 (m/s)2 (0-3 km)

  • Precipitable Water = 0.81”



ETA: 16 June 2002/1200 UTC 6-hr Forecast for 1800 UTC and Dewpoints

MSLP (hPa) Solid lines and 1000-500 (hPa) thickness dashed

500 hPa Heights (dam) solid lines and Absolute Vorticity (10x-5s-1) shaded


ETA: 16 June 2002/1200 UTC 6-hr forecast for 1800 UTC and Dewpoints

850 hPa Heights (dam) solid lines, Isotachs (m s-1) shaded and theta-e (K) dashed

250 hPa Heights (dam) Solid lines and Isotachs (m s-1) shaded


ETA: 16 June 2002/1200 UTC 6-hr Forecast for 1800 UTC and Dewpoints

MSLP (hPa) Solid lines and 1000-500 hPa thickness dashed and 700 hPa RH (>70%) shaded

850 hPa Heights (m) solid lines and Temperature Advection (x10-5°C/sec)


ETA: 16 June 2002/1200 UTC 6-hr Forecast 1800 UTC and Dewpoints

***ETA forecasting upward vertical motion coupled with forecasted 850-500 hPa lapse rates of 6-7°C/km

850 hPa Winds (kts), 850-500 hPa lapse rates (°C) and theta-e (K) shaded

700 hPa Heights (m) solid lines and omega (microbars/second); Warm colors indicate ascent and cool colors descent


ETA: 16 June 2002/1200 UTC 6-hr Forecast 1800 UTC and Dewpoints

***ETA forecasts a strengthening of the upper level jet streak, and southern NY on cyclonic exit region with a large divergence maxima just off the New England Coast

250 hPa Divergence (x10-5 s-1) solid contours and Isotachs (m s-1) shaded every 10 m s-1




Kenx radar analysis of severe weather across ny and new england
KENX Radar Analysis of Severe Weather across NY and New England

  • Overview of convective evolution

  • Analysis of the Florida/Amsterdam FO Tornado

  • Brief Highlights of Hail and Wind Events

  • Briefly analyze Dutchess/Litchfield County Tornado from a supercell





1638 UTC KENX 0.5° Base Reflectivity England

1638 UTC KENX 0.5° SRM


1644 UTC KENX 0.5° Base Reflectivity England

1644 UTC KENX 0.5° SRM


1650 UTC KENX 0.5° Base Reflectivity England

1650 UTC KENX 0.5° SRM


1656 UTC KENX 0.5° Base Reflectivity England

1656 UTC KENX 0.5° SRM


1702 UTC KENX 0.5° Base Reflectivity England

1702 UTC KENX 0.5° SRM


Amsterdam florida fo tornado
Amsterdam/Florida FO Tornado England

***Tornado first reported at 1650 UTC***



1737 UTC KENX VIL Product England

MAX VIL=44 kg/m2

VIL of Day was around 35 kg/m2

1.50” hail in Columbia County




1813 UTC KENX VIL and MESO Columbia County

1813 UTC KENX 0.5° Velocity

ALY

MAX VIL = 38 kg/m2







Preliminary results
Preliminary Results Columbia County

  • 500 hPa Closed low off the Eastern Great Lakes help initiate convective outbreak.

  • Surface trough coupled with steep mid-level lapse rates (cold pool aloft), low wet-bulb zero values, high CAPE values (large instability) and dewpoints in the 50’s and lower 60’s fueled organized low topped multicelluar convection that coalesced into a line…with a supercell south of it.

  • Locations hit by convection were situated in the cyclonic exit region/left front quad of the 250 hPa upper level jet.

  • Tornadic development was aided by large instability and shallow low-level veering (Sfc to 850 hPa). Predominant flow aloft (mid and upper-levels) was Southwesterly.


Future work
Future Work Columbia County

  • To further develop the mesoscale analysis with the use of profiler data.

  • To examine KOKX radar data for Pawling tornado.

  • To examine the local terrain effects on the tornadic development.

  • Compare this closed low case with others done in the CSTAR project(s).


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