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Work Package 2 Building the Decision Support Tools. WP2A7 Requirements analysis WP2A8 Construct the project development model WP2A9 Model validation. Requirements Analysis Requirements of consortium Who, where, when and how? Requirements of stakeholders

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slide2

WP2A7 Requirements analysis

  • WP2A8 Construct the project development model
  • WP2A9 Model validation
slide3

Requirements Analysis

    • Requirements of consortium
      • Who, where, when and how?
    • Requirements of stakeholders
      • Engagement, demonstration and feedback – user led
    • Requirements of system/s
      • scope and functionality, limitations and future work.
slide5

BioenNW – Combination of all three

  • 2 critical ‘Decision Support Systems’
    • Identify regional opportunities (site assessment)
    • Assist with formulation of project development plans
slide6

Component parts for potential site identification

    • Knowledge base – Directory of experts/BSCs
    • Library – key documents, articles, research etc
    • Stakeholder database
  • Decision Support Tool
    • Regional partners, projects, existing supply chains and infrastructure.
    • Suitability/availability of feedstocks
    • AD+ Pyrolysis configuration- Efficiency and quality of products.
    • Key operational variables and infrastructure requirements.
    • Potential efficiency –yields, energy, heat
slide7

Components parts for assisting project development plans

    • Support
      • Case studies
      • Key Documents (legal, technical etc)
      • Directory (stakeholders and experts)
    • Decision support
        • Economic models
        • Logistics models
        • Technical models based on suitability and feasibility
        • Signposting of critical pathways/ timeframes/legislation etc at planning, construction, operation and decommission stages??
slide8

Inform/educate stakeholders across supply chain

  • Enable individuals or organisations to connect (matchmaking) forming supply chains.
  • Aid the formulation of robust project development plans.
slide9

Existing case studies

    • HAUC -business case AD+Pyrolysis,
    • SRE- EcoSon,
    • ABS /Invigour business case.
  • Existing information generated across project
    • Pyrolysis training day (Ulrich Wiess)
    • HAUC financials for AD
    • BSC questionnaires and responses (Fondaterra)
    • Existing and new tools – AD calculator, ABS finance model, BCU site ID, BCU/ABS process flow models
    • BSC launches and member recruitment
    • Document repository
pestle analysis
PESTLE Analysis
  • Political, Economic, Social, Technical, Legal and Environmental factors which require consideration at (and between) each stage of the supply chain.
  • Each consideration can be seen as a potential component part of ‘decision support’ and in turn an area where information needs to be gathered/generated within the project
  • Alternatively may highlight where gaps exist.
  • Data capture is cohesive and consistent across regions.
slide13

Completed Matrix will be used to ensure:

    • That we have captured all considerations important to individual regions and stakeholders?
    • That all elements critical to decision making processes have been considered and that specific data sets/information will be evolved consistently across all regions.
    • That there is a sufficient level of granularity within each category to provide tailored support according to regional conditions.
    • That any information/resources generated by the project (but not critical to decision support) can be captured and used to inform and educate stakeholders and potentially strengthen business case by signposting key documents or agencies.
    • That there is a clear picture of where, when and how data critical to decision support is being captured.
slide14

Decision Support –Site identification and assessment using geospatial data (Dr Monika Solanki)

  • Decision Support/Support – Identifying, extracting and signposting critical information within text based resources – example policy documents (prof Craig Chapman)
  • Decision Support – Identifying an Integrating existing tools and databases & developing new tools/models – Example financial model (Aston Business School)
  • What Role will WP2 play in the development of project development plans – reducing risk and uncertainty (Aston Business School)
slide15

DECISION SUPPORT –

SITE IDENTIFICATION AND ASSESSMENT USING GEO-SPATIAL DATA

Dr Monika Solanki

slide26

DECISION SUPPORT/SUPPORT

IDENTIFYING, EXTRACTING AND SIGNPOSTING CRITICAL INFORMATION WITHIN TEXT BASED RESOURCES

EXAMPLE –POLICY DOCUMENTS

Prof Craig Chapman

slide27

Knowledge Engineering with Bioenergy Support Centers

Markets, economics, business cases,

policy and planning issues

Knowledge discovery

from text

Knowledge capture

from experts

Interview transcripts

Unstructured documents

Natural Language Processing

Text Mining

Models

Questions

Answers

Facts

Events

Entities

Question-answering and decision-making models

Data, ontology and knowledge base

Decision Support Tools

slide28

Knowledge Discovery for Decision Support Tools

Unstructured text

Structured text

Semantic text

interactive model for business case analysis
Interactive Model for Business Case Analysis

Production Data

Economics

Profit/Loss

slide30

DECISION SUPPORT

IDENTIFYING AND INTEGRATING EXISTING TOOLS AND DATABASES & DEVELOPING NEW TOOLS/MODELS

EXAMPLE FINANCIAL MODELS

(Aston Business School)

technology integration
Technology Integration
  • Retrofitting existing and / or multiple RET sites

Multiple characteristics:

  • Financial viability and return
  • Risk and uncertainty in investment(s)
  • Risk appetite
technology integration1
Technology Integration

Simple Case:

  • Typical UK diary farm
  • c.10kWe CHP

3 options:

  • AD & Grid injection
  • AD &CHP
  • AD & CHP and Pyrolysis
  • Worst, expected and best cases
technology integration2
Technology Integration

Case 1: AD & Grid injection

  • Observations:
  • Not economical at this size
  • Maintenance costs are disproportionately large
technology integration3
Technology Integration

Case 2: AD & CHP

  • Observations:
  • Some activity in UK
  • Equity financed
technology integration4
Technology Integration

Case 3: AD & CHP & Pyrolysis

  • Observations:
  • Cost uncertainty
  • Lack of case and performance data
  • Sensitivity to market cost (fertiliser, pyrolysis products)
slide36

WHAT ROLE WILL WP2 PLAY IN DEVELOPMENT OF PROJECT DEVELOPMENT PLANS

REDUCING RISK AND UNCERTAINTY

(Aston Business School)

slide39

Evaluate and Expand PESTLE analysis

Develop Case studies within regions

Design user friendly data collection proforma

Review/ conduct Gap analysis

Determine interrelationships/Logic models

Data collection by BSCs

Review/ conduct Gap analysis

Develop user interfaces for DSS

Based on case studies and data collected develop ‘use cases’

Stakeholder Engagement to Demonstrate/ gain feedback

Site ID and assessment

DST Outputs

Project development plan

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