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Class 2000-C Capstone Project

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Class 2000-C Capstone Project . Group III Randy Midgett, Carmen Cordoba, Michael Pope, Mike Birmingham. What’s Your Opinion?. Do you think legalized gambling in the form of a state lottery should be legal in all 50 states? Raise hands fore/against. 350 Million $$ Powerball !!!.

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slide2

Class 2000-C Capstone Project

Group III

Randy Midgett, Carmen Cordoba,

Michael Pope, Mike Birmingham

slide3

What’s Your Opinion?

Do you think legalized gambling in the form of a state lottery should be legal in all 50 states?

Raise hands fore/against

350 Million $$ Powerball !!!

slide4

Statement of the Problem

Can the DoD help set the information agenda in regards to what the public thinks about in terms of U.S. military and national security issues?

slide5

Overview

  • Public confidence highest in 25 years
  • Military consistently ranks highest
  • Tailhook, Aberdeen, Lt. Flin, no affect
  • Somalia, Haiti, Bosnia, Kosovo - Presidential
slide6

Overview

  • Defense spending lowest % of GNP
  • Since 255billion low in 1995, now excess of $300 billion FY 2001
  • Americans support increase
slide7

Poll Data - Budget Amount

Too Little About Right Too Much No Opinion

28% 35% 32% 5%

26% 45% 22% 7%

17% 38% 42% 3%

9% 36% 59% 5%

1999

1998

1995

1990

slide8

PA Perspective

  • Decline of military experience in congress
  • Possible negative impact on appropriations
  • Public Opinion can impact congressional voting on Mil. issues
slide9

PA Perspective

  • PA develop, improve, maintain public understanding
  • Law prohibits PA PR campaigns
  • PA activities to general public = increased public confidence
  • Congressional voting will reflect
slide10

Theory I - Public Opinion

  • Twain - “…voice of God”
  • Lincoln - “…everything…”
  • Madison - “…I know Kamchatka…”
slide11

Theory I - Public Opinion

  • Mydar, 1968 - A diversity of open minds, shapeable
  • Chisman, 1976 - The idea of public opinion is closely related with democracy.
slide12

Theory II - Agenda Setting

  • Lippman, 1922 - media provides view of outside world
  • Long, 1958 , Lang & Lang, 1959 - media has power over what’s talked, thought and felt
  • Cohen, 1963 - “…media tells people what to think about”
slide13

Theory II - Agenda Setting

  • Funkhouser, 1973 - found correlation between public issues and newsmagazine issues
  • Severin & Tankard, 1997 - Public’s interest setting agenda
slide14

Hypotheses - I

H1 - Military Public Affairs communications campaigns positively influence media agenda-setting.

slide15

McGuires Theoretical Foundations of Campaigns

  • Communication persuasion
  • Change beliefs, attitudes, behaviors
  • “Input/output” matrix
slide16

McGuires Theoretical Foundations of Campaigns

  • Input
      • sources, messages, channels, receivers, intent
  • Output
      • endpoints
      • determine success
slide17

DoD Public Affairs Guidance

  • PAG (5405.3)
      • coordinated response of public interest at any level
      • Identifies spokesperson(s), outlines themes Q/A, media coverage (active/passive)
slide18

Case Study

  • USA Sexual Harassment
    • Tailhook
  • Rebuild trust
  • Recover recruits
  • Retain independence
slide19

Case Study

  • Communication Methods
    • Open communication
    • Cultivate confidence
    • Framework expectations
slide20

Case Study

  • Communication Methods
    • Spoke on networks
    • 212 live interviews
    • 223 post visits
slide21

Case Study

  • Communication Results
    • Enhanced public standing
    • Female recruiting up
    • Re-enlistment up
slide22

Method

  • Content Analysis - Opinion of Military vs. Media Content
    • USA Today, WSJ, NY Times, Wash. Post, Chicago Trib, LA Times - 1990 - 99
    • PAG issues
    • Re-enlistment up
slide23

Method

  • Seven-step process (Kaid & Wadsworth, 1989)
  • Article placement
  • Lag-time study (Stone & McComb, 1981)
slide24

Hypotheses II

H2 - Defense appropriations are positively correlated with public opinion of the military

slide25

Discussion

  • Results
    • Mil. PA communication campaigns positively influence media agenda-setting
    • Defense appropriations are positively correlated with public opinion of the military
slide26

1990 1995 1999

78,479 63,268 65,309

99,977 76,873 81,881

99,420 73,932 76,905

13,126 21,120 23,198

18,366 14,169 15,271

Some Facts - DoD Budget

Army

Navy

Air Force

Agencies

Defense-Wide

Total 292,999 255,652 262,564

(in billions)

slide27

Poll Data -Confidence in Government

Military

Congress

President

Great Deal Quite a Lot Some Very Little None N/O

34% 34% 26% 6% * *

9% 17% 51% 21% 1% 1%

23% 26% 30% 19% 1% 1%

(Gallup, July 1999)

slide28

Combine

Great Deal/Quite a Lot (10 yr.)

Military Presidency Congress

68% 49% 26%

64% 53% 28%

60% 49% 22%

66% 39% 20%

64% 45% 21%

64% 38% 18%

68% 43% 18%

69%50%18%

85% 72% (MAR) 30% (OCT) 18%

68% N/A 24%

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

slide29

Comparison

Opinions & Budgets

$292,999 - $255,652 - $258,537 - $262,564

DoD budget

(in billions)

1990 Public Confidence - President - N/A

slide30

Further Study

  • Content Analysis
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