Chapter 10 Demographics School Finance

1. Chapter 10Demographics & School Finance

2. �Improving student learning and ensuring that all children receive an adequate education in the 21st century will be complicated by changing demographics of the students to be educated, as well as of the adults who must pay for education through taxes.� -  ���� Janet S. Hansen, 2001. Hansen, Janet S. 21st Century School Finance: How is the Context Changing? ECS Issue Paper, Education Finance in the States: Its Past, Present, and Future, Education Commission of the States, Denver, CO, July, 2001, p. 4. Hansen, Janet S. 21st Century School Finance: How is the Context Changing? ECS Issue Paper, Education Finance in the States: Its Past, Present, and Future, Education Commission of the States, Denver, CO, July, 2001, p. 4.

3. Demographics & Finance Demographics describe changes in population.

4. Demographics & Finance, cont. Demographics significantly impact the costs of providing public education.

5. Changes in Our Understanding of Demographics Until 15 or 20 years ago, �demographics� only involved the number of students enrolling each fall and if they were coming from different neighborhoods than last year. For the most part, we were not concerned with changing racial & ethnic demographics.

6. Today�s Schools Have More & More Diverse Students These increasing racial, ethnic, and economic groups have a large impact on where and how education dollars should be spent Equity and adequacy issues face schools with changing demographics

7. Demographic Changes Affect Teaching & Learning Without proper planning and budgeting, students� issues of language, values, traditions, & behaviors will likely prevent otherwise effective teachers from understanding, developing strong relationships with, & successfully teaching students from backgrounds different than their own

8. Demographics Impact Student Achievement School leaders must be aware of the trends in demographics if schools are to teach all students to high levels of learning.

9. This Chapter Will Analyze state and local demographic shifts in student population and examine the associated financial impact on public schools Make some predictions as to what the future demographics will look like in your locality Examine some demographic issues involved in teacher recruitment, selection, & professional education to meet the students� needs in schools

10. Understanding Diverse Students� Learning Needs When the school district�s population changes, families from other cultures or economic backgrounds move into the neighborhood and enroll their children in school Middle class teachers� beliefs and behaviors typically do not prepare them to understand, motivate, or instruct students from other cultures

11. U.S. Schools Operate on Middle Class Norms & Values For example, many believe that �wealthy people are smarter� Teachers believing this myth will not have sufficiently high expectations for students from poverty backgrounds and will be less likely to teach these students to high achievement levels

12. Students Bring Own �Rules� Students from poverty backgrounds bring their own �hidden rules� into the school that make classroom management and a learning focus difficult for teachers who do not understand these behaviors

13. Students Bring Own �Rules�, cont. Students from poverty homes are likely to believe that security comes from relationships rather than school or work They are used to higher noise levels & receiving key information nonverbally

14. Teacher & Student Classroom Learning�Comfort Levels� Differ Teachers Desks in straight rows Teachers lecturing Only one speaker at a time Teachers giving information Students Relationships matter most Noise is good Non-verbal tells REAL story Other students are entertaining

15. Teacher � Student Disconnects & Achievement The results for student achievement are likely to be discouragingly self-fulfilling Poor student achievement among students in the new demographic would greatly increase community school distrust and would eventually require significant educator time and resources to resolve

16. Teacher Attitudes & Student Achievement Unless teachers recognize their personal biases & ignorance about students from different backgrounds --and appropriately adjust their views and instructional practices -- students & families will perceive teacher attitudes as disrespectful � or worse Results for student achievement are likely to be discouragingly self-fulfilling

17. Student Achievement & Community Trust Poor student achievement among students in the new demographic would greatly increase community school distrust and would eventually require significant educator time and resources to resolve

18. Suburban School District A 10 Years Ago Students: 98% White, affluent 5% Free or Reduced Price Lunches Teachers: Mirrored students Local Economy: Began outsourcing Today Students: 47% White; 27% Hispanic 23% Black 93% Free/Reduced Lunches 30% Second Language Learners Teachers: Still mostly White, middle class Local Economy: Loss of well-paying jobs; loss of fiscal resources

19. What is Financial Impact of Educating These Students? 10 Years Ago Students: 98% White, affluent 5% Free or Reduced Price Lunches Teachers: Mirrored students Local Economy: Began outsourcing Today Students: 47% White; 27% Hispanic 23% Black 93% Free/Reduced Lunches 30% Second Language Learners Teachers: Still mostly White, middle class Local Economy: Loss of well-paying jobs; loss of fiscal resources

20. Planning for Schooling 10 Years Later Requires� Revised curriculum Professional development for staff Equipment & facility needs Recruited a more diverse staff Programs & practices to decrease the achievement gap� if the schools are to remain responsive to their community�s needs

21. Demographics Impact School Finance School leaders must be aware of local demographic trends if schools are to teach all students to high levels in a public accountability environment Keeping pace with changing demographics requires funding at higher levels than before

22. Poverty & School Leadership Educational leaders in high poverty areas must plan to meet these challenges with highly qualified teachers and meaningful programs that address the real at-risk behaviors facing students, while building community support for the direction being taken

25. Enrollment Trends, 1980-2010, in Thousands

26. Expected Changes in Student Populations The racial/ethnic backgrounds of the school-aged population have changed While white, non-Hispanic persons will still be the majority, this demographic is projected to decrease as a part of the overall population by 30%age points

27. Expected Changes in Student Populations The Black non-Hispanic population is predicted to maintain consistently around 14% of the population The Hispanic group has increased and is projected to almost double between 2000 and 2040 to 28% of the population The Asian/Pacific Islander/Other group continues to rise by 1%age point per decade

28. Special Needs Students inNew Demographics Medically fragile students Second language learners Students from other countries bring still more learning (and occasionally physical) needs into the classroom

29. Demographics Can Help Us Plan for Potential Costs The Statistical Abstract of the United States, 2001, indicating 2000 data, can help us predict what the kindergarten class of 2005 might be like* For example, it is known that poverty increases risk of low birth weight, & low birth weight is a good predictor of a child having learning disabilities in school�with increased enrollment of poverty students, we can expect increased special education services and related costs  * U.S. Census Bureau. (2001, November). Statistical Abstract of the United States, 2001. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Commerce. * U.S. Census Bureau. (2001, November). Statistical Abstract of the United States, 2001. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Commerce.

30. Racial/Ethnic Background of School-Age Population

31. 15 Risk Factors & Young Children�s Success in School Poverty Infant & child mortality Low birth weight Single parents Teen mothers Mothers using alcohol, tobacco, or drugs Transience Child abuse & neglect Lack of quality day care Low wage jobs Unemployed parents Lack of access to health and medical care Low parent education Poor nutrition Lack of contact with English as the primary language

32. Poverty is a Risk Factor Poverty impacts & enlarges all other risk factors Fully 22% of America�s children live in poverty America has the highest percentage of children in poverty of any of the 28 advanced industrial democratic countries The U.S. also has the largest gap between rich and poor children Poorest children experience difficulty in general and specifically in school

33. Poverty Statistics 1/3 of Black & Hispanic children live in poverty Only 10% of White children are raised in poverty 14 million school-aged children in poverty in 2000: 9 million were White children 4 million were Black children 4 million were Hispanic children (included above)

34. Predicting School Population from Local Poverty Rates The poorest families (those with income less than $10,000 per year) have yearly birth rates of 73 per 1,000 females Families with incomes greater than $75,000 per year have yearly birth rates of 50 per 1,000 females If poverty rates are increasing in a school district or a state, it may be safe to predict greater enrollment growth than where income is higher

35. Fiscal Planning Needed with Increased Local Poverty Localities with increasing rates of children qualifying for free and reduced lunch programs need to plan for early intervention programs dealing with resultant school issues from a prevention perspective instead of a reactionary perspective

36. Fiscal Planning Needed with Increased Local Poverty, cont. If poverty rates are increasing in a school district or a state, it may be safe to predict greater enrollment growth than where income is higher It is a wise fiscal investment to adequately meet poor children�s educational needs as education appears to be the only intervention that breaks the poverty cycle

37. School Finance Planning to Teach Children of Poverty: Early intervention programs address school issues from a prevention perspective, & include: Preschool programs Expanded Head Start programs Parent education programs Quality day care programs Professional development programs for educators to better meet students� learning needs

38. Population Transience Increases Schooling Costs America has the highest known migration level of any first world country 43 million Americans move each year 14% stay within the same county, 4% within the same state, but to a different county, and 4% to a different state

39. Population Transience Increases Schooling Costs, cont. Low-income children move more frequently than their higher income counterparts They lose continuity of instruction & learning along with having to adjust to a new home, friends, teachers

40. Population Transience Increases Schooling Costs, cont. Losing continuity of instruction, learning, & relationships often reduces students� achievement Frequent moves contribute to the �Achievement Gap�

41. Transience Varies State to State Approximately 80% of those who live in Pennsylvania were born there Florida, on the other hand, has a relatively high transience rate: only 30% of the residents were born in the state

42. Transience Varies State to State Teachers in Pennsylvania and Florida may start and end the year with 25 students The Florida teacher, however, unlike the Pennsylvania teacher, may have 20 different students from the 25 who started the year

43. Transience is a Risk Factor Educational leaders need to plan programs that ease the educational disadvantages of transience for students & provide professional development for those who deal with these students

44. Transience Increases Risk for School Problems Increases family stress and conflict Increases feelings of alienation, loss Linked to psychiatric disorders & behavior problems for preschool children Increase probability of needing special education in schools Areas with transience issues, include: Military bases & locales High poverty areas Agricultural areas with migrant workers Should be aware of the related emotional problems & implement programs for these children & families.  [1] Lavigne, J., Gibbons, R., Christoffel, K., Arend, R., Rosenbaum, D. Binns, H., Dawson, N., Sobel, H., and Isaacs, C. 1996. �Prevalence Rates and Correlates of Psychiatric Disorders among Preschool Children.� Journal of the American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry 35(2), 204-214. [1] Lavigne, J., Gibbons, R., Christoffel, K., Arend, R., Rosenbaum, D. Binns, H., Dawson, N., Sobel, H., and Isaacs, C. 1996. �Prevalence Rates and Correlates of Psychiatric Disorders among Preschool Children.� Journal of the American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry 35(2), 204-214.

45. Illegal Immigrants & School Finance It is estimated that the U.S. has approximately 5 million illegal immigrants Almost sixty five percent of these individuals live in one of three states � California (2,000,000), Texas (700,000), and New York (540,000) Estimate that one in five illegal immigrants is school-aged, means more than 1 million such children attending U.S. schools Hovey, K. and Hovey, H. 2002. Congressional Quarterly�s State Fact Finder, 2002. CQ Press: Washington, D.C. Hovey, K. and Hovey, H. 2002. Congressional Quarterly�s State Fact Finder, 2002. CQ Press: Washington, D.C.

46. Illegal Immigrants & School Finance, cont. In the early to mid-1970�s Texas was spending millions of state dollars each year educating children of illegal immigrants The legislators thought that since these students were in the country illegally, Texas should not have to spend its tax dollars educating them In May 1975, the Texas legislature revised its laws to withhold state education funds to those school districts for children who were not legally admitted into the United States

47. Illegal Immigrants & School Finance, cont. The United States Supreme Court in Plyler v. Doe, 1982, determined that undocumented children of alien parents could not be denied a public education The court reasoned that the Fourteenth Amendment provides that �No State shall�deprive any person of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor deny to any person within its jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws  [1] Plyler v. Doe, 1982. 457 U.S. 202, 102 S.Ct. 2382. [1] Plyler v. Doe, 1982. 457 U.S. 202, 102 S.Ct. 2382.

48. Illegal Immigrants & School Finance, cont. The financial impact on Texas was enormous There may have been 50,000 children of illegal immigrants in the Texas public schools The state share per pupil in 1975 may have been $2,000 �with the total yearly spending over $100,000,000 50,000 students x $2,000 per pupil equals $100,000,000. 50,000 students x $2,000 per pupil equals $100,000,000.

49. Second Language Learners& School Finance The fastest growing racial/ethnic group in the US is Hispanic The lack of contact with English as the primary language is a risk factor in school

50. Second Language Learners& School Finance, cont. In 2005, if 15% of new students enrolling in U.S. public schools is Hispanic, 4,791,200 children fall into this category If 10 % of these children are ESOL (needing English language instruction) and we use the Florida model of pupil weighting at 1.298, the yearly additional cost to educate these children is $10,742,598,662

51. According to the U.S. Census Bureau � For infants born to black mothers, the % of low birth weight babies is 13% � almost double that of the average We may predict, therefore, that black children may be at greater risk of being identified for special education services than other children

52. According to the U.S. Census Bureau �, cont. If your state or locality is experiencing higher enrollment of black students, one might expect a larger enrollment in special education students

53. Infant & Child Mortality Rates & School Finance The United States has a rather surprisingly high rate of infant mortality In the United States in 1998, there were 681 deaths per 100,000 babies under the age of one The infant mortality rate for white babies in the first year of life is 571 per 100,000 babies while the rate for black babies is 1,363 per 100,000

54. Infant & Child Mortality Rates & School Finance, cont. Infant mortality can lead to children�s & parents� feelings of alienation This condition has been linked to psychiatric disorders & behavior problems for preschool children These children have a high probability of needing special education programs later as they enter public schools � especially in LD and DD (developmental delay) programs  Lavigne, J., Gibbons, R., Christoffel, K., Arend, R., Rosenbaum, D. Binns, H., Dawson, N., Sobel, H., and Isaacs, C. 1996. �Prevalence Rates and Correlates of Psychiatric Disorders among Preschool Children.� Journal of the American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry 35(2), 204-214. Lavigne, J., Gibbons, R., Christoffel, K., Arend, R., Rosenbaum, D. Binns, H., Dawson, N., Sobel, H., and Isaacs, C. 1996. �Prevalence Rates and Correlates of Psychiatric Disorders among Preschool Children.� Journal of the American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry 35(2), 204-214.

55. Rate of Single Parenthood & School Finance In the United States, about 1/3 of all births were to unmarried parents This is a risk factor is associated with poverty Of births to unwed mothers, 26% were white, 68% were black, 42% were Hispanic, 58% Native American, and 5% Asian For every ethnic/racial group a child raised by a single mother is 2 to 3 times as likely to be raised in poverty than a child raised in a two-parent home

56. Too Much TV-Watching & School Finance Research findings indicate that for each additional hour of watching TV per day, attention problems increase by approximately 10% Toddlers who watched 8 hours of TV per day would have an 80% increased risk of attention problems than a child who watched no TV [1] Christakis, Demitri, Zimmerman, Frederick, DiGiuseppe, David, and McCarty, Carolyn. �Early Television Exposure and Subsequent Attentional Problems in Children.� Pediatrics 2004, 113:708-713. [1] Christakis, Demitri, Zimmerman, Frederick, DiGiuseppe, David, and McCarty, Carolyn. �Early Television Exposure and Subsequent Attentional Problems in Children.� Pediatrics 2004, 113:708-713.

57. Too Much TV-Watching & School Finance, cont. ADHD is a qualifying condition for special education services The implications for increased learning problems � and related practices to address them � increases the cost of educating these students [1] Christakis, Demitri, Zimmerman, Frederick, DiGiuseppe, David, and McCarty, Carolyn. �Early Television Exposure and Subsequent Attentional Problems in Children.� Pediatrics 2004, 113:708-713. [1] Christakis, Demitri, Zimmerman, Frederick, DiGiuseppe, David, and McCarty, Carolyn. �Early Television Exposure and Subsequent Attentional Problems in Children.� Pediatrics 2004, 113:708-713.

58. Too Much TV-Watching & School Finance, cont. School districts with increasing percentages of children eligible to receive free or reduced lunch need to understand other ramifications of this changing demographic Students in the poorest 20% of families watched TV 18 hours per week rather than the 11 hours per week in the top income group Lack of quality day care may be a significant contributor to time in front of TV [1] Lee, V. and Burkam, D. (2002). Inequality at the Starting Gate. Washington, DC: Economic Policy Institute. [1] Lee, V. and Burkam, D. (2002). Inequality at the Starting Gate. Washington, DC: Economic Policy Institute.

59. Grandparents Raising their Grandchildren 4 million school-aged children live with their grandparent/s Grandparent/s have sole custody of approximately 1 million school-aged children Factors include: Parents in jail or drug rehabilitation centers Parents who for one reason or another are simply incapable of caring for their own children

60. Grandparents Raising Grandchildren & School Finance Little is known about the levels of support for school funding issues or the voting records for these grandparents In school districts where this phenomenon occurs, school leaders need to provide support mechanisms for these individuals and provide the professional development for staff members who interact with them

61. Child Abuse & Neglect &School Finance In 2002, an estimated 2.6 million referrals were made to local or state Child Protective Services (CPS) for investigation Involved nearly 4.5 million children Approximately 896,000 children found to be victims of child abuse or neglect

62. Increased Cost of Educating Emotionally Disturbed Students Using the Florida model, the cost for educating a child diagnosed as socially maladjusted costs 2.3 times the base cost per student If only 1/10 of the 418,600 children referred are eventually diagnosed with emotional problems � the 41,860 students at 2.3 times the average pupil expenditure in 2002 of $7,524 Yearly cost to society through school costs alone would be $724,395,672  [1] http://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d02/tables/dt166.asp [1] http://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d02/tables/dt166.asp

63. Teacher Shortage& School Finance The U.S. Department of Education estimates that schools will have to replace more than 2 million teachers over the next ten years, an average of 200,000 new teachers, annually Teacher shortages are most pervasive in math, science, special education, & bilingual and ESL classes  [1] Howard, Tyrone C. (2003). �Who receives the short end of the shortage? Implications of the U.S. Teachers Shortage on urban schools.� Journal of Curriculum and Supervision, Winter, Vol. 18, No. 2, 142-160 and Kaplan, L. and Owings, W. (2002). Teacher Quality, Teaching Qualtiy, and School Improvement. Bloomington, IN: Phi Delta Kappa Educational Foundation. [1] Howard, Tyrone C. (2003). �Who receives the short end of the shortage? Implications of the U.S. Teachers Shortage on urban schools.� Journal of Curriculum and Supervision, Winter, Vol. 18, No. 2, 142-160 and Kaplan, L. and Owings, W. (2002). Teacher Quality, Teaching Qualtiy, and School Improvement. Bloomington, IN: Phi Delta Kappa Educational Foundation.

64. Cumulative % of Teachers Leaving Profession Each Year

65. Many Reasons for Teacher Shortages Approximately half of all beginning teachers leave the profession within their first five years Almost 16 percent of beginning teachers leave before the end of their first school year Leavers cite: Job dissatisfaction Desire for career outside education Working conditions Low salary considering amount of own education & job responsibilities

66. High Teacher TurnoverImpacts School Finance Teachers with many years of experience and advanced degrees will be replaced with new, inexperienced teachers Replacing 200,000 experienced teachers with 100,000 experienced & 100,000 inexperienced (lower salaried) teachers could save $1 billion each year that could be redirected to improving teacher quality

67. High Teacher TurnoverCosts Taxpayers Business models cost out employee turnover costs to include 25% of the employee�s salary and benefits Organizational costs of termination, recruitment, hiring substitutes, and new training costs, estimates are that turnover costs U.S. public education approximately $2.1 billion each year Berry, B. 2003. Paper presented at the Homes Partnership Annual Meeting, February, 22, 2003, Washington, D.C. Berry, B. 2003. Paper presented at the Homes Partnership Annual Meeting, February, 22, 2003, Washington, D.C.

68. Finance Redirection to Increase Teacher Quality If the $1 billion annual savings were combined with a 50% reduction of the $2.1 billion organizational costs� More than $2 billion each year could be redirected to teacher salary and benefits enhancements to attract & retain high quality teachers

69. High Teacher TurnoverImpacts School Finance In education, induction, mentoring, and training costs are concentrated in the early years of employment Estimates say that a teacher who quits after one year cost the school district $13,500 in lost recruitment and training The cost jumps to $50,000 for a teacher who quits after three years Quoting Tom Carroll, President of the National Commission on Teaching and America�s Future in http://www.cnn.com/2004/EDUCATION/03/25/teacher.turnover.ap/ Quoting Tom Carroll, President of the National Commission on Teaching and America�s Future in http://www.cnn.com/2004/EDUCATION/03/25/teacher.turnover.ap/

70. Alternatively Certified Teachers Have High Attrition 80,000 teachers entered the teaching profession in the last 10 years through non-traditional, teacher prep programs One study found that 60 % of those who enter teaching through �short-cut� programs leave teaching in the first 3 years � as opposed to the 30% who leave in the same time frame from traditional programs and the 10 to 15% who leave from five-year teacher preparation programs

71. Induction Programs for Teachers Reduce Later Costs Since faculty stability has been shown to enhance school improvement & attrition rates for new teachers participating in induction programs is 15% (compared to 26% for those who had no induction support), it makes financial common sense for the educational leader to research quality induction programs to minimize personnel costs

72. Low Salary Hurts Teaching as Career The National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) reported: 28% of former public school teachers & 33% of private school teachers left the classroom and went to work for private businesses because of better salary or commission. J. Thomas, (1998). �Educating our future work force,� Women in Business 50, 6, 26-28. J. Thomas, (1998). �Educating our future work force,� Women in Business 50, 6, 26-28.

73. Quality Teachers Can IncreaseStudent Achievement ETS study examined math and science scores on the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), also known as the Nation�s Report Card When teachers had strong content knowledge, had learned to work with students from other cultures, and learned to work with special needs students, their students tested more than a full grade level above their peers See Blair, J. �ETS Study Links Effective Teaching Methods to Test-Score Gains.� Education Week, 25 October 2000, p. 24-25 and Weglinsky, H. How Teaching Matters: Bringing the Classroom Back Discussions of Teacher Quality. Policy Information Center Report. Princeton, N.J.: Milken Family Foundation, Educational Testing Service, October, 2000.See Blair, J. �ETS Study Links Effective Teaching Methods to Test-Score Gains.� Education Week, 25 October 2000, p. 24-25 and Weglinsky, H. How Teaching Matters: Bringing the Classroom Back Discussions of Teacher Quality. Policy Information Center Report. Princeton, N.J.: Milken Family Foundation, Educational Testing Service, October, 2000.

74. Teacher Shortage HurtsUrban, Low Income Schools Much research indicates that low income and urban schools experience higher degrees of teacher turnover and greater teacher shortages than other types of schools As a result, urban and low-income students are more likely to have under-prepared and non-certified teachers than any other group of students  [1] Ingersoll, Richard (2001). �Teaching Quality� Policy Briefs (Center for the Study of Teaching and Policy, January 2001). [1] Ingersoll, Richard (2001). �Teaching Quality� Policy Briefs (Center for the Study of Teaching and Policy, January 2001).

75. Teacher Quality Increases Student Achievement Over time, students placed with high quality teachers make significantly higher achievement gains Grade 3 students scoring at approximately the same level, after 3 consecutive years with highly effective teachers, score 35 %ile points higher in reading scores and 49%ile points higher in math scores than do peers with less effective teachers Students with less effective teachers may even lose ground, in terms of achievement scores Jordon, H., Mendro, R., and Weerasinghe, D. �Teacher Effects on Longitudinal Student Achievement.� Paper presented at the CRE-ATE Annual Meeting, Indianapolis, IN, July, 1997; and Sanders, W., and Rivers, J. Cumulative and Residual Effects of Teachers on Future Student Academic Achievement. Knoxville: University of Tennessee, Tennessee Value Added Assessment System, November, 1996. Jordon, H., Mendro, R., and Weerasinghe, D. �Teacher Effects on Longitudinal Student Achievement.� Paper presented at the CRE-ATE Annual Meeting, Indianapolis, IN, July, 1997; and Sanders, W., and Rivers, J. Cumulative and Residual Effects of Teachers on Future Student Academic Achievement. Knoxville: University of Tennessee, Tennessee Value Added Assessment System, November, 1996.

76. Teacher Quality Could Reducethe �Achievement Gap�, but� Low income and minority students are nearly twice as likely to assigned to low quality teachers than their more affluent, white counterparts Other research indicates that poor black students are less likely to have a well-qualified teacher than poor white students, especially at the secondary level See Haycock, K. 2000. �No More Settling for Less.� Thinking K-16. 4 (Spring, 2000): 3-22; and Reeves, D. 2000. �Standards are Not Enough: Essential Transformations for School Success.� NASSP Bulletin 84 December 2000): 5-13. Kain, J. and Singleton, K. �Equality of Educational Opportunity Revisited.� New England Economic Review (May/June 1996): 87-114. See Haycock, K. 2000. �No More Settling for Less.� Thinking K-16. 4 (Spring, 2000): 3-22; and Reeves, D. 2000. �Standards are Not Enough: Essential Transformations for School Success.� NASSP Bulletin 84 December 2000): 5-13. Kain, J. and Singleton, K. �Equality of Educational Opportunity Revisited.� New England Economic Review (May/June 1996): 87-114.

77. Administrator Demographics: Quality Principal Shortage There is a growing shortage of qualified people willing to take on the principals� job The �graying� of school administrators linked with the increased job complexity, rising standards, & greater accountability demands have led to increased numbers of school leadership vacancies nationwide Approximately 40% of the country�s current principals will retire by 2008 Doud, J.L. and Keller, E.P. (1998). The K-8 principalship in 1998. Principal, 78 (1), 5-6,8,10-12. Doud, J.L. and Keller, E.P. (1998). The K-8 principalship in 1998. Principal, 78 (1), 5-6,8,10-12.

78. Administrator Demographics: Principal Shortage In a 2001 Public Agenda survey, superintendents in large, urban districts are somewhat more likely to experience an insufficient supply of principal applicants � 61% say they are experiencing at least a somewhat serious shortage of principals. Public Agenda (2001). �Trying to Stay Ahead of the Game. Superintendents and Principals Talk about School Leadership.� A report from Public Agenda prepared for the Wallace-Readers Digest Funds, New York: Public Agenda, 22.

79. Administrator Demographics: Principal Shortage, cont. The National Association of Elementary School Principals (NAESP) estimates that approximately 40% of the country�s 93,200 current principals will retire by 2008 The recruitment and retention of qualified principals has become one of the greatest challenges facing school systems across the U.S  Doud, J.L. and Keller, E.P. (1998). The K-8 principalship in 1998. Principal, 78 (1), 5-6,8,10-12. Doud, J.L. and Keller, E.P. (1998). The K-8 principalship in 1998. Principal, 78 (1), 5-6,8,10-12.

80. Principal Recruitment & Retention Are Costly Approximately 22% of all current principals could be eligible to retire Blacks and Hispanics appear to be under- represented in the principal population Attracting and retaining quality principals can be an expensive proposition for school districts with competition for high quality, underrepresented racial/ethnic groups

81. Average Principals� Salaries Racial/Ethnic Groups [1] Adapted from http://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d02/tables/dt076.asp - NOTE: Totals may differ from 100% due to reporting, rounding, or survey processing procedures. These salary variances may be due to school district attempts to recruit and retain underrepresented minorities. Simple arithmetic shows that Hispanics with fewer years of experience earn $2,637 more than Whites and almost $900 more than Blacks. Hispanics, on the other hand, are the most underrepresented ethnic group. [1] Adapted from http://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d02/tables/dt076.asp - NOTE: Totals may differ from 100% due to reporting, rounding, or survey processing procedures. These salary variances may be due to school district attempts to recruit and retain underrepresented minorities. Simple arithmetic shows that Hispanics with fewer years of experience earn $2,637 more than Whites and almost $900 more than Blacks. Hispanics, on the other hand, are the most underrepresented ethnic group.

82. Issues Contributing toPrincipal Shortage The varied and enormous demands on school leaders� time and energies force many to make serious compromises in their personal and family lives Issues of community respect, prestige, and salary also make the careers less attractive to promising quality candidates. In some cases, principals earn less per diem than senior teachers  In their study, DiPaola and Tschannen-Moran found that 51.3% of respondents indicated they were dissatisfied or very dissatisfied with their salary.DiPaola, M. and Tschannen-Moran, M. (2003). The Principalship at a Crossroads: A Study of the Conditions and Concerns of Principals, NASSP Bulletin, March, Vol 87 (634), 43-63. In their study, DiPaola and Tschannen-Moran found that 51.3% of respondents indicated they were dissatisfied or very dissatisfied with their salary.DiPaola, M. and Tschannen-Moran, M. (2003). The Principalship at a Crossroads: A Study of the Conditions and Concerns of Principals, NASSP Bulletin, March, Vol 87 (634), 43-63.

83. Principal Quality is Also a Major Concern Many superintendents acknowledge difficulties in finding effective, well-qualified principal applicants Just over half (52%) say they are �happy� with the job their current principals are doing, overall Only 41% of large urban district superintendents say they are �happy� with their current principals� performance

84. Principal Quality Lacking Barely one in three superintendents say they are �happy� with their district�s principals when it comes to: Recruiting talented teachers (36%) Knowing how to make tough decisions (35%) Delegating responsibility and authority (34%) Involving teachers in decisions (33%) Using money effectively (32%) Public Agenda, 2001, p. 23.Public Agenda, 2001, p. 23.

85. Principal Quality & Student Achievement Owings and Kaplan�s (2004) study finds that elementary principals rated highly by supervisors using professional standards have significantly higher achieving students than principals rated lower Middle and high school principals� ratings were in the expected direction although not statistically significant William A. Owings, Leslie S. Kaplan, and John Nunnery. (2004). �Principal quality, student achievement, and ISLLC standards. A Virginia Study� submitted to Journal of School Leadership.William A. Owings, Leslie S. Kaplan, and John Nunnery. (2004). �Principal quality, student achievement, and ISLLC standards. A Virginia Study� submitted to Journal of School Leadership.

86. Principal Quality & School Finance Knowing how to use precious (and limited) school resources effectively to maximize student learning and develop and maintain a quality teaching staff, quality principals makes a measurable difference in the value taxpayers get for supporting schools.

87. Ideas to Improve Principal Quality, Reduce Shortage Improving school administrators� pay and prestige Improving the quality of principals� professional development Making it much easier for principals to remove ineffective teachers Creating initiatives that encourage teachers to consider school leadership careers

88. Principal Turnover Impacts School Finance The average salary for school administrators in the 1999-2000 school year (latest data available) was $66,504 Approximately 22% of all principals could be eligible to retire. Less experienced/expensive principals would probably replace them If 10% of the nation�s 93,200 principals retire each year at a savings of $15,000 per year per principal, the national savings would be almost $140 million This personnel cost savings, as with teachers, could be redirected to administrator salary and benefits enhancements to attract and retain high quality principals in the schools [1] http://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d02/tables/dt076.asp [1] http://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d02/tables/dt076.asp

89. School Finance Issues &Principals� Daily Needs Budgets have not kept pace with new spending demands Most superintendents (66%) and principals (53%) say insufficient funding is a more pressing problem for them than lack of parental involvement, ineffective administrators, or poor teacher quality Not only have responsibilities increased but also more mandates have been assigned to school leaders without the corresponding funds to enact them  Public Agenda 2001, p. 19.Public Agenda 2001, p. 19.