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Business Futures in a Digital Age. Club of Amsterdam January 25 th 2006. Mike Jackson, Chairman. www.shapingtomorrow.com. People Profit (Value) Planet. Increasing responsibility Increasing complexity Increasing accountability. Changing environment. Absolute respect for:.

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business futures in a digital age

Business Futures in a Digital Age

Club of Amsterdam

January 25th 2006

Mike Jackson, Chairman

www.shapingtomorrow.com

changing environment
People

Profit (Value)

Planet

Increasing responsibility

Increasing complexity

Increasing accountability

Changing environment
  • Absolute respect for:

Fast paced, uncertain, complicated, dynamic

Source: “Cannibals with Forks”; John Elkington

Shaping Tomorrow: all rights reserved

but how to see the future fast enough
But, how to see the future fast enough?
  • Avoid re-inventing the wheel
  • Earlier warnings
  • Save money and time
  • Reduce staff frustration
  • Increase innovation
  • Reduce risk
  • Serve stakeholders better

Shaping Tomorrow: all rights reserved

if you don t know where your going
If you don’t know where your going …

Any bus will get you there!!!

Shaping Tomorrow: all rights reserved

a changing global weather map
A changing global weather map

Sustainability

- FTSE4Good

- taxation shifts

Technology

Networked

World

Personalisation

Accessibility

Demographics

Globalisation

Asia

Economy

Well-being

Energy

Environment

Security

Surprises

Shaping Tomorrow: all rights reserved

increasing business surprises
Betfair - Leisure

Skype - Telecommunications

RFID - Most industries

Blogs - Media

?

Online sports betting exchange

VOIP (Voice over Internet)

Radio frequency identifier device

News, opinions, communities

Increasing business surprises

Shaping Tomorrow: all rights reserved

business issues
Business issues
  • Strategic planning too slow
  • Hierarchies to unwieldy
  • Shorter shelf lives
  • Multiple distribution channels
  • Non-traditional competition
  • Lean thinking
  • High value added
  • More choice
  • Minimise risk
  • Increasing need for future intelligence!

Source: 2500 organisations: January 2005; response rate 28% - 540 replies

Shaping Tomorrow: all rights reserved

succeeding in an uncertain world
Succeeding in an Uncertain World

Three key imperatives

  • “corporations will have developed a new dynamic approach to strategy formulation - collaborative, drawing on key signals from all quarters, and constantly evolving in the light of new circumstances”
  • “leaders of these corporations will seek to build resilience and flexibility into the very fabric of the organization, by developing a set of core capabilities “
  • “corporations who succeed in the future will be those whose leaders remain steadfast in the face of uncertainty, and who have the qualities to manage change effectively”

Source: accenture - http://www.shapingtomorrow.com/login/nav.cfm?z4=stratItems&id=1026

Shaping Tomorrow: all rights reserved

the changing futures studies scene
New players

Retail Systems Alert

Shaping Tomorrow

Club of Amsterdam

APF

New services

Trend Scouts (trendwatching.com)

Innovation/ideation companies

Futures databases/electronic surveys

Many more consultancies seemingly adding foresight capabilities

The changing futures studies scene

First casualties

  • Overmorgen

New alliances

  • Future Foundation/

Experian

  • Outsights/MORI
  • Corporate clubs

Personal observation

  • An industry is being created but mainly beyond its traditional players. It remains fragmented.
  • No dominant professional players – yet!
  • Futures studies still stuck in a paradigm similar to that which the Media industry faces
  • The winners may not even be born yet!

Shaping Tomorrow: all rights reserved

who uses future intelligence
The business pioneers

Hewlett Packard

BT

Lufthansa

Shell

BASF

Daimler Chrysler

Volvo

Siemens

Philips

Lufthansa

Ericcson

Aventis

Procter & Gamble

Why

Long gestation times

Big bets

Innovation

Who uses future intelligence …
  • Commonalities
  • Anticipation
  • Change
  • Creativity
  • Initiative
  • Organisation
  • Standards
  • Teamwork
  • BIG BUSINESS but its changing!
  • ST: 8000 users; 2500 business people; 150 clients

Source: Corporate Foresight in Europe

Shaping Tomorrow: all rights reserved

futurist tools
Decisioneering

Forecasting systems

Decision support systems

Data mining

Econometric modeling

Pattern recognition

Risk analysis

Simulation

Optimisers

Patent analysis

Scenario planning

Horizon scanning

Expert networks

New approaches

Open and closed

Increasing sophistication

Greater quantities of data

Better presentation

Improved customisation

Wider distribution

More take up

Tools integration

Rise of the aggregators

Outsourced search

Web based

Real time

Futurist tools

Shaping Tomorrow: all rights reserved

how will business futures be different
How will business futures be different?
  • Greater scrutiny
  • Greater accountability
  • Greater expectations
  • Greater value added
  • Greater complexity
  • Greater risks
  • Greater opportunities
  • Treadmill of ever increasing demand
  • Futurist tools can help you stay one step ahead

Shaping Tomorrow: all rights reserved

thanks for listening
Thanks for listening

Website: www.shapingtomorrow.com

Contact: Dr. Michael Jackson, Chairman

(H)ome: 0044 (0)1 902 851918

(O)ffice: 0044 (0)1 902 851985

(M)obile: 0044 (0)7966 155912

(E)mail: [email protected]

(S)kype: shapingtomorrow

Shaping Tomorrow: all rights reserved

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