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Generation and Application of Gridded Aviation Forecast Parameters in GFE and AvnFPS

Generation and Application of Gridded Aviation Forecast Parameters in GFE and AvnFPS . Chris Leonardi Aviation Focal Point, NWS Charleston WV National Weather Association Annual Meeting October 19, 2006. The past.

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Generation and Application of Gridded Aviation Forecast Parameters in GFE and AvnFPS

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  1. Generation and Application of Gridded Aviation Forecast Parameters in GFE and AvnFPS Chris LeonardiAviation Focal Point, NWS Charleston WV National Weather Association Annual MeetingOctober 19, 2006

  2. The past • As has been the case for decades, the NWS offers text products in support of aviation… • …but what are the problems with these products?

  3. The problems • Limited to a few specific airports • Of particular concern since the FAA wants to greatly increase (2-3 times) the number of TAFs • Generally skewed towards commercial interests and not the general aviation community • Hard to get a sense of overall current/forecast weather pattern • Where’s the front? • How will the fog set up across the area? • Collaboration between WFOs is spotty at best • No graphical presentation

  4. National Gridded Forecast Database (NDFD) • 2.5km resolution database of various weather parameters like temperature, wind, sky cover, etc. • But what about aviation specific parameters like ceiling height and visibility???

  5. The new grids • In addition to relevant NDFD parameters (Sky, Wx, Wind, PoP), we have added the following: • PredHgt – “conditional ceiling height” in hundreds of feet (0-250) • Ceiling if Sky ≥ 57%, height of predominant cloud layer otherwise • Internal Collaboration grid…also used with Sky to construct CigHgt grid for web display • CigHgt – ceiling height in feet (0-25000) • Ceiling height if sky >57%, otherwise no ceiling • Generated as last step (totally dependent on Sky/PredHgt • Source of external web graphic • Vsby – visibility in miles (0-10)

  6. More grid details • Updated 4 times a day at main issuance times (00Z, 06Z, 12Z, 18Z) • Generated on an hourly basis out to 30 hours • Represent prevailing conditions only (ie. no TEMPOs) • Loose collaboration with PBZ/JKL on PredHgt/Vsby

  7. What tools do we use? • High-resolution spatial/temporal model data • LAMP (NGM-based), LAV (GFS-based) • Local models (WSEta, WRF) • NCAR NCV grids • GFE smart tools/procedures • Model ingest tools for LAV/WRF/NCV data • Tools for improved manipulation/interpolation of data • Tools for exact placement of fog

  8. How do we generate grids? • Here is a typical “smart tool” to generate grids based on expected fog:

  9. How do we generate grids? • Here are examples of the grids that are created. Note the level of detail that these tools allow us to work with!

  10. Application of grids – Element images PNG images are created from these grids and posted to our web page.

  11. Application of grids – Point aviation forecasts • We can also display ceiling/visibility forecast information anywhere in our CWA – NOT just for TAF sites!

  12. How do I get this information? • Go to http://weather.gov/charlestonwv • For a point specific plot of ceiling/visibility: • Enter your city/state or zip code • OR click on the map at a location of interest… • On the next page, click on “Hourly Weather Graph”

  13. Where else can I see all this neat stuff?!? • It’s all available NOW on the NWS Charleston Aviation Page! • http://weather.gov/charlestonwv/aviation/aviation.php

  14. Application of grids – Skeleton TAFs • We can import the grids into AvnFPS to create first-guess TAFs.

  15. Gridded TAF +/- • Positives: • Quick writing of TAFs…*if* sufficient work has been put into grids • Potential to generate many more TAFs than previously possible • Potential for quick area-wide amendments • Negatives: • No TEMPOs generated (can be typed in) • Only one cloud layer generated (can type in more) • Copy/paste/deleting can be cumbersome • Local effects tricky to include at times

  16. These are all good services…but what about the numbers?

  17. Verification comparison • Comparing FY05 to FY06 GPRA standards: • IFR POD • Roughly the same for each year, but still below goal • Winter performance better than FY05, summer performance worse than FY05 • IFR FAR • Improved in FY06 • Both winter and summer saw improvement • IFR CSI is slightly improved in FY06

  18. Seasonal breakdown • Why the winter season improvement? • “Systemic” thinking • Fewer TEMPOs • Why the summer struggles? • Local effects vs. synoptic effects • Fewer TEMPOs = worse IFR fog/storm performance?

  19. Overall picture? • Our statistical performance has remained steady (or improved slightly) – and new services are being offered.

  20. The challenges • Verification statistics still need to improve • Winter has shown definite improvement • Summer has been similar to past years…we need further work here • Forecaster work load has increased significantly • Difficult to forecast local phenomena in grids • Fog • Elevation effects on ceiling • Short-term visibility restrictions in precip • Need more model/science-based tools

  21. The next steps • Publicity for gridded aviation products • Letter/visits to airports • Fly-ins/talks with flying clubs • Inclusion of TEMPO grids • Automatic inclusion in TAFs • Short, targeted TEMPO groups could improve summer performance • Further improvement of model data and smart tools (RUC13, NCV) • Tighter collaboration with neighboring offices (CWSUs?) • Ultimate goal – highly detailed 3D aviation database across the CONUS (interactive route forecasts!)

  22. Questions?

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